Swings in 2004 (accounting for the Nader factor)

[nclib]

The 3.16% swing to Bush is even more disturbing for the Democrats given Nader's poorer performance in 2004 than in 2000.

Without taking into consideration Nader's influence, 17 states swung to Kerry in 2004.

The top 5 swings to Kerry were:

1) Vermont
2) Alaska
3) Montana
4) Colorado
5) Oregon

If D.C. was counted as a state, it would have been 5th.

The top 5 swings to Bush were:

1) Alabama
2) Tennessee
3) Hawaii
4) Oklahoma
5) New Jersey

However, if the Nader vote is added to both Gore and Kerry's totals, the picture is very different.

The top 5 swings to the left were:

1) Vermont
2) South Dakota
3) North Carolina
4) Montana
5) New Hampshire

Note: Montana and New Hampshire actually swung to the right, but by less than any of the rest of the states.

The top 5 swings to the right were:

1) Hawaii
2) Rhode Island
3) New Jersey
4) Alabama
5) Tennessee
...
9) Massachusetts

I was very surprised at that rating for Massachusetts.

As far as N.C.'s rating goes, I guess Edwards did help after all.

Anyway, it is very disturbing for the Dems that 47 of 50 states swung to the right (and the only states swinging left--Vt., S.D., N.C.--are non-competitive).

[bgwah]

bush=incumbent

[Sam Spade]

Vermont was really the only state to have true Nader-Kerry movement.

North Carolina's movement was entirely the movement (tiny as it was) because of Edwards.

South Dakota is the most anti-incumbent state in the US (go check the results).  Montana is second.  Results there are to be doubted.

New Hampshire moved negatively against Bush in its northern rural section (the sections closer to MA showed a slight Bush change, go figure).  Whether this continues in future elections is room for debate.

I also wouldn't trust Bush's gains in Hawaii for the Republican future.

Rhode Island, New Jersey and Massachusetts are entirely because of the Catholic factor in the NE.  Mark my words.  I don't know whether this movement will continue into next election.

Alabama and Tennessee all have to do with Kerry's moral issue liberalism; these states vote on cultural issues more than any other states in the US.

[Alcon]

Oh, shut up with your facts! We will storm South Dakota in 2008!

[nclib]

South Dakota is the most anti-incumbent state in the US (go check the results).

How are you measuring this? If you're averaging its performance in Rep. incumbent years vs. Dem. incumbent years vs. open years, this is a bit deceptive since McGovern did much better in his home state (S.D.) than the national average in 1972.

[Sam Spade]

The only Democrat that might stand a chance of winning in South Dakota in 2008 is Tim Johnson and that might not even happen should Gov. Rounds choose to run for the Senate.

[Sam Spade]

Comparison (SD):

Clinton (SD):
1992 37.14%, lost by 3.52%
1996 43.03%, lost by 3.44%
+0.08%

National:
1992 43.01%, won by 5.56%
1996 49.23%, won by 8.51%
+2.95%

Loss of 2.87% in comparison

Bush (SD)
1988 52.85%, won by 6.34%
1992 40.66%, won by 3.52%
-2.82%

National
1988 53.37%, won by 7.72%
1992 37.45%, lost by 5.56%
-13.28%

Gain of 10.46% in comparison.

Reagan (SD)
1980 60.53%, won by 28.84%
1984 63.00%, won by 26.47%
-2.37%

National:
1980 50.75%, won by 9.74%
1984 58.77%, won by 18.21%
+8.47

Loss of 10.84% in comparison

Carter (SD)
1976 48.91%, lost by 1.38%
1980 31.69%, lost by 28.84%
-27.46%

National:
1976 50.08%, won by 2.06%
1980 41.01%, lost by 9.74%
-11.80%

Lost of 15.66% in comparison

I won't compare Nixon because McGovern was from South Dakota.

Eisenhower (SD): (against the same candidate)
1952 69.27%, won by 38.54% (also won every county)
1956 58.39%, won by 16.78%
-21.76%

National:
1952 55.18%, won by 10.85%
1956 57.37%, won by 15.40%
+4.55%

Loss of 26.31% in comparison.

I won't go any further.

Only Bush 41 did better in his re-election campaign than in his first one in South Dakota and I suspect that this wouldn't have happened had Perot not been in the race.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Hampshire moved negatively against Bush in its northern rural section (the sections closer to MA showed a slight Bush change, go figure).  Whether this continues in future elections is room for debate.

Historically Coos county is Democratic

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Don't know about NJ and I've yet to check RI, but in Massachusetts what seems to have happend is a higher Republican turnout etc.
He did a lot better in the outer burbs than he did in 2000.

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I think that the Anti-Segregation ammendment on the ballot (with Moore et al gunning for a NO vote) helped Bush in Alabama (not that he'd have needed it anyways).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What about Buchanan?
Less than 47 states swong to the right.

[minionofmidas]

New Hampshire moved negatively against Bush in its northern rural section (the sections closer to MA showed a slight Bush change, go figure).  Whether this continues in future elections is room for debate.

Historically Coos county is Democratic

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Don't know about NJ and I've yet to check RI, but in Massachusetts what seems to have happend is a higher Republican turnout etc.
He did a lot better in the outer burbs than he did in 2000.

What is noticeable is that the Republican gains in Massachusetts were in the Eastern part of the state. The west, as well as the two tiny island counties, swung heavily Democratic. Basically, there's a belt of Rep-swinging Dem country from Southern New Hampshire to Southern New Jersey.

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I think that the Anti-Segregation ammendment on the ballot (with Moore et al gunning for a NO vote) helped Bush in Alabama (not that he'd have needed it anyways).
[/quote] While Tennessee's strong Republican swing is o/c related to the disappearance of one Albert A Gore, jr, from the ballot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What is noticeable is that the Republican gains in Massachusetts were in the Eastern part of the state. The west, as well as the two tiny island counties, swung heavily Democratic. Basically, there's a belt of Rep-swinging Dem country from Southern New Hampshire to Southern New Jersey.

Good point... Bush improved a lot in that long line of suburbs down the Eastern seabord... maybe the voters there felt more partisan this year?

[nclib]

What is noticeable is that the Republican gains in Massachusetts were in the Eastern part of the state. The west, as well as the two tiny island counties, swung heavily Democratic. Basically, there's a belt of Rep-swinging Dem country from Southern New Hampshire to Southern New Jersey.

N.J., N.Y., and Conn. can be explained by 9-11 (and Conn. can also be explained by the absence of Lieberman), but why are those other counties swinging Republican?

[nclib]

The top 5 swings to Kerry were:

1) Vermont
2) Alaska
3) Montana
4) Colorado
5) Oregon

After the new results came in, Oregon jumped to 4th.

Is OR's trend simply from Nader or is it trending Democratic?

[nclib]

The top 5 swings to Bush were:

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I know that Hawaii has always been more competitive in Republican incumbent years, but how come?

4) Oklahoma

Does anyone know why OK swung even more Republican (already very Rep. in 2000)?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The top 5 swings to Bush were:

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I know that Hawaii has always been more competitive in Republican incumbent years, but how come?

4) Oklahoma

Does anyone know why OK swung even more Republican (already very Rep. in 2000)?

Maybe Coburn brought out the completely insane wignut vote.

[nclib]

What about Buchanan?
Less than 47 states swong to the right.

Alright...I factored in Buchanan (and Peroutka) and found 43 states (all but VT, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, NC) swinging to the right.

Still, given that 43 states swung to the right (and the 7 that didn't are all non-competitive), the picture does not look good for the Dems.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Maybe Coburn brought out the completely insane wignut vote.

that's basically true.

What 7 states swung to the left with Buchanan added? A larger swing is to be expected since there was a national swing to Bush.

Oregon is rather politically static, Nader was a big factor in 2000.

[nclib]

VT, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, and NC swung to the left with Nader, Buchanan, and Peroutka added.

Only VT and SD swung left by more than 1%.