RI-01/Fleming: Congressman David Cicilline (D) trails by double-digits

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If Cicilline somehow gets the nod, he could very well benefit from a divided Republican primary with Doherty and Loughlin. I don't know if Doherty will win though --- he's not a politician, and could run into tough situations when having to answer questions about Medicare or abortion.

I agree with other people in that Cicilline is toast in a primary, though. DCCC has to be hoping for someone to run against him right now.

[Nation]

http://blogs.wpri.com/2011/12/15/poll-61-back-pension-law-chafee-cicilline-approval-in-20s/


If I had a more prominent role within the Democratic Party in RI (I have zero, unless you count a father who serves as an Independent Town Councillor in a town with a year round population of 6,000 who the local Democratic Party hates. I don't count that), I would have told them that re-nominating Cicilline would be a stupid, stupid idea. Even back in May/June, his approval ratings were going down the sewer the more information came out about his tenure as Providence Mayor.

I coincidentally took a class for my MPA program last semester with Brendan Doherty, the likely GOP nominee. He was a nice guy, I only talked to him once or twice, but he was obviously very analytic, smart, and thoughtful. Not your usual Republican. If he beats Loughlin, I suspect he has at least a 50% chance of taking the general election. The polls seem to show the possibility, if for no other reason than Cicilline's unpopularity.

[Nation]

http://blogs.wpri.com/2011/12/15/poll-61-back-pension-law-chafee-cicilline-approval-in-20s/


If I had a more prominent role within the Democratic Party in RI (I have zero, unless you count a father who serves as an Independent Town Councillor in a town with a year round population of 6,000 who the local Democratic Party hates. I don't count that), I would have told them that re-nominating Cicilline would be a stupid, stupid idea. Even back in May/June, his approval ratings were going down the sewer the more information came out about his tenure as Providence Mayor.

I coincidentally took a class for my MPA program last semester with Brendan Doherty, the likely GOP nominee. He was a nice guy, I only talked to him once or twice, but he was obviously very analytic, smart, and thoughtful. Not your usual Republican. If he beats Loughlin, I suspect he has at least a 50% chance of taking the general election. The polls seem to show the possibility, if for no other reason than Cicilline's unpopularity.

Why is Chafee so unpopular? What are the odds of him being reelected?

Chafee's been unpopular since the day he was elected. Remeber, he only won with 34% of the vote or so -- not exactly a landslide. Republicans think he's an out of touch, bumbling goofball who reluctantly think he did two good things by passing a voter ID law and pension reform (the former was unncessary and terrible, IMO, while the latter was painful but necessary).

Democrats hate him because they think he's a bumbling goofball who occasionally holds the correct position on social issues that don't matter too much (i.e. gay marriage) when it comes to the economy, and think he sold liberals out because of Voter ID and Pension reform.


Luckily for Chafee, the state of RI has a LOT of bumbling goofballs -- that has to be where his approvals come from.

[Nation]

http://news.providencejournal.com/politics/2012/01/doherty-praises-loughlin-calls-cicilline-out-of-touch.html


See, quotes like calling Cicilline a "mouthpiece for out of touch liberal interests" is NOT how you win RI-01, and unfortunately cuts right into my previous assessment of Doherty as thougtful and anlalytic.

There's a lot of self-identified liberals in RI-01. It's Providence. If you run a bitter campaign against Cicilline (Doherty does not need to do that, in my opinion), Cicilline can try and use his money to turn Doherty into a bogeyman for right-wing special interests. It's the kind of campaign Cicilline probably wants to wage.

[Nation]

Cicilline? Not likely. Somebody would have stepped up by now. There's a LOT of Democrats unhappy with David, but few have the money to seriously compete with him. He has token opposition, but there's little chance anyone seriously gives him a fight.

[Nation]

http://news.providencejournal.com/politics/2012/01/doherty-praises-loughlin-calls-cicilline-out-of-touch.html


See, quotes like calling Cicilline a "mouthpiece for out of touch liberal interests" is NOT how you win RI-01, and unfortunately cuts right into my previous assessment of Doherty as thougtful and anlalytic.

There's a lot of self-identified liberals in RI-01. It's Providence. If you run a bitter campaign against Cicilline (Doherty does not need to do that, in my opinion), Cicilline can try and use his money to turn Doherty into a bogeyman for right-wing special interests. It's the kind of campaign Cicilline probably wants to wage.

Don't know if anyone else has posted an RI-1 thread since January, but whatever.

I think I was right in my assessment! Cicilline has essentially turned a double-digit deficit (a DDD, if you will) into a 5-7 point lead according to public and internal polling from his campaign. Doherty has run an absolutley TERRIBLE campaign...The guy was essentially quiet all summer, very few ads, and Cicilline merged from a bitter primary against Anthony Gemma (DINO) who falsely accused his campaign of voter fraud. Cicilline wound up winning by 20+.


Cicilline is doing the same thing Whitehouse did to Chafee in 06 -- tying Doherty to congressional republicans, and national issues such as social security and Medicare reform. For as slimy as Cicilline seems to be personally, the guy is an outstanding politician, and has outmanuevered Doherty in every step of this race.


I'll call it now -- Cicilline hangs on and wins by 10 or so. Dems get a much-needed hold in this seat.