http://blogs.wpri.com/2011/12/15/poll-61-back-pension-law-chafee-cicilline-approval-in-20s/
If I had a more prominent role within the Democratic Party in RI (I have zero, unless you count a father who serves as an Independent Town Councillor in a town with a year round population of 6,000 who the local Democratic Party hates. I don't count that), I would have told them that re-nominating Cicilline would be a stupid, stupid idea. Even back in May/June, his approval ratings were going down the sewer the more information came out about his tenure as Providence Mayor.
I coincidentally took a class for my MPA program last semester with Brendan Doherty, the likely GOP nominee. He was a nice guy, I only talked to him once or twice, but he was obviously very analytic, smart, and thoughtful. Not your usual Republican. If he beats Loughlin, I suspect he has at least a 50% chance of taking the general election. The polls seem to show the possibility, if for no other reason than Cicilline's unpopularity.
Why is Chafee so unpopular? What are the odds of him being reelected?