2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[DL]

Minority government is actually not such a rare an event in Ontario - in addition to 1985, we also had minority governments in 1975 and 1977 and in 1999 the Tories came within just a handful of seats of losing their majority - that was with the NDP only having 9 seats. What if the NDP has 18 seats? Then the Tories need to beat the Liberals by more than an 18 seat margin - of course if the Tories maintain a double digit lead - they will easily get a majority - but what if the gap narrows to 5%? It doesn't have to be razor thin - just get the Tory vote down from the low 40s to the high 30s and it becomes very likely.

[Hatman 🍁]

Minority government is actually not such a rare an event in Ontario - in addition to 1985, we also had minority governments in 1975 and 1977 and in 1999 the Tories came within just a handful of seats of losing their majority - that was with the NDP only having 9 seats. What if the NDP has 18 seats? Then the Tories need to beat the Liberals by more than an 18 seat margin - of course if the Tories maintain a double digit lead - they will easily get a majority - but what if the gap narrows to 5%? It doesn't have to be razor thin - just get the Tory vote down from the low 40s to the high 30s and it becomes very likely.

I guess so... but the dynamics have been different since Rae's election of 1990. After that, the NDP has had trouble winning the seats they did in the 1970s and 1980s, which has made minority governments an unlikely scenario. Also, back then we had a centrist PC Party, and a right wing Liberal Party whose support was more limited, giving the NDP more room on the left, and the Liberals less room for seats. The Ontario party dynamics have changed.

[adma]

I guess so... but the dynamics have been different since Rae's election of 1990. After that, the NDP has had trouble winning the seats they did in the 1970s and 1980s, which has made minority governments an unlikely scenario.

But on the NDP's behalf (though it's still early to tell), the dynamics may be different again since this spring's federal election.

And even though it seems unlikely that the Liberal-vs-NDP paradigm will shift so drastically provincially as it did federally--my feeling is that there may be as many as half of Ontario's existing seats that, to use US terminology, can be classified as "tossup" or leaning in a non-incumbent direction.  And the sweeping bulk of those are, of course, Liberal.

The trouble, in the end, is that too much of the Ontario Liberal base is founded upon "not Harris/not Rae" quicksand which has been taken for granted for too long.  Thus, don't be surprised if a notional ElectoMatic 36 Liberal seats turns out to be half that--on whose behalf is another question entirely...

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess so... but the dynamics have been different since Rae's election of 1990. After that, the NDP has had trouble winning the seats they did in the 1970s and 1980s, which has made minority governments an unlikely scenario.

But on the NDP's behalf (though it's still early to tell), the dynamics may be different again since this spring's federal election.

And even though it seems unlikely that the Liberal-vs-NDP paradigm will shift so drastically provincially as it did federally--my feeling is that there may be as many as half of Ontario's existing seats that, to use US terminology, can be classified as "tossup" or leaning in a non-incumbent direction.  And the sweeping bulk of those are, of course, Liberal.

The trouble, in the end, is that too much of the Ontario Liberal base is founded upon "not Harris/not Rae" quicksand which has been taken for granted for too long.  Thus, don't be surprised if a notional ElectoMatic 36 Liberal seats turns out to be half that--on whose behalf is another question entirely...

While the NDP could very well win a lot of seats this election, the dynamics haven't changed for the Liberal party. They have the same ideology; so NDP votes will mostly come from Liberal votes ensuring a minority government's likelihood will not go up significantly. For things to change drastically, the NDP has to start taking Tory votes or the Liberals will have to move to the right again...

[RogueBeaver]

I guess so... but the dynamics have been different since Rae's election of 1990. After that, the NDP has had trouble winning the seats they did in the 1970s and 1980s, which has made minority governments an unlikely scenario.

But on the NDP's behalf (though it's still early to tell), the dynamics may be different again since this spring's federal election.

And even though it seems unlikely that the Liberal-vs-NDP paradigm will shift so drastically provincially as it did federally--my feeling is that there may be as many as half of Ontario's existing seats that, to use US terminology, can be classified as "tossup" or leaning in a non-incumbent direction.  And the sweeping bulk of those are, of course, Liberal.

The trouble, in the end, is that too much of the Ontario Liberal base is founded upon "not Harris/not Rae" quicksand which has been taken for granted for too long.  Thus, don't be surprised if a notional ElectoMatic 36 Liberal seats turns out to be half that--on whose behalf is another question entirely...

While the NDP could very well win a lot of seats this election, the dynamics haven't changed for the Liberal party. They have the same ideology; so NDP votes will mostly come from Liberal votes ensuring a minority government's likelihood will not go up significantly. For things to change drastically, the NDP has to start taking Tory votes or the Liberals will have to move to the right again...

NDP is not taking Tory votes. Liberals can't move right otherwise their PEU friends desert and half their infrastructure does as well. Plus, Dad's always been quite honest about his ideological direction. Promising to raise taxes (per Duncan) and buy off the PEUs is not going to win Tory votes.

[DL]

NDP is not taking Tory votes.

I would agree that the NDP is not taking the votes of the core 33% of people who voted Tory in the 2007 election, BUT with the Tories at 42% - you can be sure that a chunk of that is from people who are simply pissed of with McGuinty and whose kneejerk reaction is to park their votes with the official opposition. If Hudak's weaknesses are exposed in the campaign and if Horwath performs well, the ONDP could attract some of that generic anti-government vote away from the Tories.

Look at what happened in 1995. The Rae government was very unpopular and for a year leading up to the election and even for the first half of the campaign the Ontario Liberals under the dreadful Lyn McLeod had double digit leads. The Tories under Mike Harris actually started the campaign in third place! Then Harris ran a good campaign and McLeod flopped and the anti-government vote suddenly shifted dramatically away from the Liberals to the PCs. So anything is possible.

[Hatman 🍁]

the latest Ipsos-Reid poll gives us a 10-11% swing from the Liberals to the Tories which, assuming a uniform swing (lol), would give the Tories up to 43 more seats, including Ottawa South (McGuinty's seat).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not terribly surprising; if you drop double-digits you do tend to lose a lot of seats.

[RogueBeaver]

Ottawa South: LOL. While I'd be delighted, I'm not going to believe that till I see it projected on election night.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the differences between the Liberals and Tories in the last election, in order. To calculate the swing needed, just divide the number by 2. So a 10 or 11 point swing means a difference of 20-22% in the last election.  Seats held by the federal conservatives in blue and NDP orange. (just looking at that, it appears no seat is a "safe Liberal" seat, as even the seats where they won the most massive majorities aren't held by them federally)

Nipissing               +1.40
Barrie                  +2.98
Kitchener—Conestoga         +4.78
Eglinton—Lawrence            +5.33
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale+6.75
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex         +6.93
Stormont—Dundas--South Glengarry   +10.13
Don Valley West            +10.76
London—Fanshawe            +11.18
Oak Ridges—Markham         +12.15
Mississauga South            +12.18
Brampton West            +12.52
Willowdale               +12.65
Richmond Hill            +13.10
Prince—Edward—Hastings         +13.54
Northumberland—Quinte West      +14.16
Scarborough—Guildwood         +14.52
Ajax—Pickering            +14.72
Mississauga—Erindale         +14.74
Perth—Wellington            +14.84
Oakville               +14.89
Etobicoke—Lakeshore         +15.32
Huron—Bruce            +15.41
Etobicoke Centre            +15.87
Niagara Falls               +16.41
Guelph                  +16.43
York Centre               +16.45
Pickering—Scarborough East      +16.93
Bramalea—Gore--Malton         +17.64
St. Catharines               +18.34
Ottawa—Orleans             +18.45
Elgin—Middlesex--London         +18.60
Ottawa West—Nepean         +18.84
Brampton—Springdale         +19.96
Brant                  +20.30
Kitchener Centre            +20.39
Ottawa South               +20.47
Scarborough Southwest         +20.62
St. Paul's               +20.89
Peterborough               +22.02
Essex                  +23.01
Chatham-Kent—Essex         +23.29
London North Centre            +23.45
Mississauga—Streetsville         +23.62
Kingston and the Islands         +24.91
Toronto Centre            +27.65
London West               +28.17
Mississauga—Brampton South      +28.35
Scarborough Centre            +28.54
Ottawa—Vanier            +28.66
Don Valley East            +30.52
Markham—Unionville         +32.55
Scarborough—Agincourt         +32.72
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell      +33.35
Etobicoke North            +33.84
Mississauga East—Cooksville      +35.85
Vaughan               +43.18
Scarborough—Rouge River         +50.59

And NDP targets...
Thunder Bay—Atikokan      +0.17
York South—Weston         +1.40
Timiskaming—Cochrane      +2.35 (riding doesn't exist federally)
Hamilton Mountain         +3.71
Ottawa Centre            +4.01
Davenport            +5.33
Algoma—Manitoulin         +5.61
Thunder Bay—Superior North   +8.52
London—Fanshawe         +12.36* (3rd place finish in 2007)
Windsor West            +24.52
Windsor—Tecumseh         +25.83
York West            +26.79
Sudbury            +31.64
Sault Ste. Marie         +33.75

[DL]

the latest Ipsos-Reid poll gives us a 10-11% swing from the Liberals to the Tories which, assuming a uniform swing (lol), would give the Tories up to 43 more seats, including Ottawa South (McGuinty's seat).

This is true on a uniform swing - but did you notice that in the federal election, Ottawa was one place in Ontario that bucked the province-wide trend and there was virtually no Liberal to Tory swing at all?

[Hatman 🍁]

the latest Ipsos-Reid poll gives us a 10-11% swing from the Liberals to the Tories which, assuming a uniform swing (lol), would give the Tories up to 43 more seats, including Ottawa South (McGuinty's seat).

This is true on a uniform swing - but did you notice that in the federal election, Ottawa was one place in Ontario that bucked the province-wide trend and there was virtually no Liberal to Tory swing at all?

Yes. Plus, McGuinty might do better in the region because he is from the area. I know Ottawa South wont go Tory in this election, let's be clear. I'm just saying, he would be toast if there was a uniform swing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obvious comment is obvious: if the swing is low in and around Ottawa, then it will be rather high elsewhere. Probably in places where there are more seats and seats where there are more swing voters. Oh.

[Hatman 🍁]

Obvious comment is obvious: if the swing is low in and around Ottawa, then it will be rather high elsewhere. Probably in places where there are more seats and seats where there are more swing voters. Oh.

Could also mean a lot of wasted swing in Northern Ontario. According the Forum Research poll, the Tories were leading there. Now, I'd like to know what their definition of Northern Ontario is. If it's the 705+807 area codes, then those numbers make sense. However, only a Torontonian would consider places like Barrie and Peterborough "Northern Ontario".

However, one has to think that many Northern Ontario Liberals will be voting PC this time, which is great news for the NDP which is already poised to pick up maybe 4 seats. Perhaps Sudbury and the Soo are maybe in play.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

the latest Ipsos-Reid poll gives us a 10-11% swing from the Liberals to the Tories which, assuming a uniform swing (lol), would give the Tories up to 43 more seats, including Ottawa South (McGuinty's seat).

DUDE. Seriously. A flat swing model does NOT work in Canada. You need a ratio swing.

[Hatman 🍁]

the latest Ipsos-Reid poll gives us a 10-11% swing from the Liberals to the Tories which, assuming a uniform swing (lol), would give the Tories up to 43 more seats, including Ottawa South (McGuinty's seat).

DUDE. Seriously. A flat swing model does NOT work in Canada. You need a ratio swing.

Dude. Seriously, no mathematical models can predict elections accurately. You can rant and rave about how great your calculator works, and that's just great. I, on the other hand will be using more insight about specific races to gauge my predictions.

My swingometre is just for interest's sake, and will only help me a little bit during the pre-campaign period. You will note that I only changed 4 ridings from my previous prediction while using it: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/07/ontario-election-2011-prediction-mid.html

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think I'm off when I think an ELEVEN POINT LEAD will result in a Conservative majority or even a massive majority. The polls are suggesting similar numbers to the 1995 provincial election where the Tories were able to win Toronto... and well, everywhere else except the North. Now granted, much of this support may be coming from the north where it'll be wasted, but I think we can expect at least a few Toronto seats to turn blue. Enough to win a majority, at least!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If you are going to be putting incorrect projections on your website then I will have to do what I did to 308.

[MaxQue]

If you are going to be putting incorrect projections on your website then I will have to do what I did to 308.

By definition, a projection can't be correct or incorrect until we know election results.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think I'm off when I think an ELEVEN POINT LEAD will result in a Conservative majority or even a massive majority.

Almost certainly a massive one, actually.

[Hatman 🍁]

If you are going to be putting incorrect projections on your website then I will have to do what I did to 308.

You do that, then. But, I have a habit of predicting Ontario better than any other predictor, so I fore warn you.

You use your silly math, and I'll look at the real data: local factors.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If you are going to be putting incorrect projections on your website then I will have to do what I did to 308.

You do that, then. But, I have a habit of predicting Ontario better than any other predictor, so I fore warn you.

You use your silly math, and I'll look at the real data: local factors.

Local factors would have had the NDP with 3 seats in Quebec in the last federal election. Math counts for a hell of a lot.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I went to Banff this weekend and saw an attack ad against Hudak from the Ontario Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

If you are going to be putting incorrect projections on your website then I will have to do what I did to 308.

You do that, then. But, I have a habit of predicting Ontario better than any other predictor, so I fore warn you.

You use your silly math, and I'll look at the real data: local factors.

Local factors would have had the NDP with 3 seats in Quebec in the last federal election. Math counts for a hell of a lot.

Quebec can be more predictable based on math, yes. But that is the nature of the province.  Ontario is a different beast. Can math predict who is going to win in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell? I'd like to see you do that. What about Welland? Windsor West? London-Fanshawe? Scarborough Southwest? etc. etc.

And you know, different ridings are more likely to see massive swings than others. Do you factor that in as well? For example, we wont see an 11 point swing in Ottawa South, but it is possible in many of the rural ridings.  I'm sure your electromatic screwed up in the Ottawa area, which saw Tory decreases. Did you have any way of forseeing that?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The ElectoMatic is adjustable by region. And I do not have a working Ontario 2011 ElectoMatic at this time; but I point out that Ontario or elsewhere, websites that ignore math do godawful, and websites that use only math without local factors also do poorly. That is why 308 and EPP tied (in a way) for the worst showing. You must combine the two. Things that do not work are:

Flat swings alone. IE adding 11% to every riding.
Talking to a dozen people from the riding alone. IE asking people in the riding who they think will win.

What DOES work? Nothing. If something did we'd not need elections. You can however use something that works best.

All my ElectoMatic does is a bunch of math for me. The math is a simple ratio method. The ratio method works better in places where there are "2.5" or 3 competitive parties. It works like so:

Party A took 20% in the last provincial election. In Riding 1 they took 10%, and in Riding 2 they took 30%.

Lets say they are polling at 30% province-wide. According to a flat method, you'd change riding 1 to 20% and riding 2 to 40%. If, however, you compare this to a real election, you'll see this does not work very well.

A ratio method looks at the change. 30% is 1.5 times, or 150% of 20%. Riding 1 would then be increased by the same amount, and thus, become 15%, while Riding 2 becomes 45%.

Now if you do this for each party, you'll find some ridings with numbers like 14%, 19% 33%, and others with numbers like 31%, 40%, and 52%. You need to re-add these numbers and re-divide them so they total 100. This is all the ElectoMatic does; it does that for me, it is not a magic machine, it just makes the ratio method easier to calculate.

If you are willing to hear me out, I will compare the 2007 Ontario election to the 2003 election (presuming they used the same map?? if not, then 2003 to 1999, or any two elections since the 1970's) using my Ratio method, and your earlier looked at Flat method, and we can see which one is better. I'm even willing to break the map down into areas (GTA, Ottawa, Rural, etc) of your choosing, and comparing Ratio and Flat in both.