2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Foucaulf]

In the case of the Fraser Valley, it is pretty solidly Conservative so I cannot see the BC Liberals losing here.  They won by pretty large margins.  As for the Interior, you are right about Kamloops, Prince George, and the Kootenays, but the Okanagan Valley and Peace River Country is unlikely to go NDP.

All true - that post was rushed out, meaning I overgeneralized.

My point was that the HST is anathema to a majority of the BC Liberal electorate. This does not include only the Interior, but also the volatile immigrant base. The middle class sees it as a tax grab, while the rich sees it as a needless block on their spending. The NDP has a more solid base than the Liberals, and the party cannot let their guard down one moment. This is the strategy behind their recent wave of populist policy (spread out over many years, of course).

I also disagree that BC has swung to the left. 

This is also true. I'm fully aware people will vote for the provincial NDP in protest, which is why I disagreed with:

With the possible emergence of the BC Conservatives, they seem to be pushing the NDP further to the left... will it work?

With the exception of the 2001 election, the NDP has always had a strong opposition but they only win when the pro free enterprise vote is divided.

Think you're exaggerating the trend. The Liberal-NDP system was only established in the nineties, and it's a stretch to call the Socreds "free enterprise" and not the modern NDP. And I constantly state that the influx of immigrants has changed BC politics completely.

As for the Red Ed syndrome...

To clarify, I meant by that how Ed Milliband, being to the left of his brother David, has been painted as far-left by the right. That talking point is being used on Dix too, and certainly there are urban lefties who think the NDP could have had a shot of winning if Mike Farnworth were picked as leader instead.

There's a poll out there, though, showing that 59% of those polled "are either neutral or have yet to form an opinion of Dix". Given how lethargic the past two campaigns were, I think the NDP would do well to shock and awe.

[Boris]

So, does the big news yesterday mean a landslide for whoever the incumbent party is in Manitoba?

[Hatman 🍁]

So, does the big news yesterday mean a landslide for whoever the incumbent party is in Manitoba?

The PCs were leading in the polls before hand, so this will probably boost the NDP a bit. However, I do remember the Tories promising to bring the Jets back in the last election. Turns out the NDP did it (well, not really, they only helped subsidize the stadium, not the team... but I guess it could be argued they allowed the economics of the city to get better allowing for a team to be financially viable)

[Linus Van Pelt]

Two retirements announced in the past week in seats that become much less safe without the incumbent: Kormos (NDP - Welland) & Pupatello (Lib - Windsor West)

[Hatman 🍁]

Windsor West will probably be an NDP pick up. Welland will probably go NDP as well... I see it as a marginal NDP seat, not a "Peter Kormos" seat like one may have thought 10 years ago.

[Holmes]

NDP holds Welland federally as well... although, it'll probably swing away from the NDP and be close, just as it was in 2011. Hopefully they capture Windsor West - and Tecumseh!

[mileslunn]

NDP holds Welland federally as well... although, it'll probably swing away from the NDP and be close, just as it was in 2011. Hopefully they capture Windsor West - and Tecumseh!

Wouldn't be surprised if the NDP picks up the two Windsor ridings and there is even a chance although not certain, that the Tories could pick up Essex.  I do though expect the Liberals to perform better in Southwestern Ontario then they did federally even if they lose most of the seats.  Welland will probably stay NDP, but considering how close the Tories federally came to winning, it would be silly for the party to take it for granted.  After all had their not been the NDP surge nationally, the Tories probably would have picked up Welland federally when you consider the gap between the two parties was much larger in Ontario at the beginning of the election than the end while the Tory numbers didn't change a whole lot in Ontario

[Hash]

The Liberal MPP for Essex, who was retiring anyhow, passed away. His retirement and the like also makes that seat much less safe.

[DL]

The NDP has a good chance of winning Essex. Taras Natyshak who ran very strongly for them in Essex federally will run provincially - it will probably be a tossup between him and the Tory. With Crozier dead - so is any chance whatsoever for the Liberals to retain that seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Essex is not within the NDP's grasp, unfortunately, unless they were to win the election. The Liberals could finish 3rd there, however.

[DL]

The NDP took 35% in Essex federally. It could be very winnable if the Liberals make some effort to hold the seat and its more of a three way split.

[mileslunn]

The NDP took 35% in Essex federally. It could be very winnable if the Liberals make some effort to hold the seat and its more of a three way split.

I think anything is possible, but considering the Liberals are much stronger provincially in Southwestern Ontario than their federal counterparts, it would tend to think a Tory win is more likely than an NDP one and also I still think the Liberals could hold it provincially.  Provincial and federal results don't always match after all, the 905 belt went solidly Tory in the 90s provincially, but solidly Liberal federally and even if you took the Reform/Alliance vote + PC vote federally, the Liberals still would have won the vast majority of ridings here in 1997 and 2000.  So we will have to see if the Liberals go the way of the federal cousins in Southwestern Ontario or not, but so far they have held up much better than their federal counterparts.

[adma]

The NDP took 35% in Essex federally. It could be very winnable if the Liberals make some effort to hold the seat and its more of a three way split.

I think anything is possible, but considering the Liberals are much stronger provincially in Southwestern Ontario than their federal counterparts, it would tend to think a Tory win is more likely than an NDP one and also I still think the Liberals could hold it provincially. 

Though it may also depend on an "at whose expense" question re Liberal provincial strength.  And counteracting the "Liberal incumbent advantage" factor is that provincially, unlike federally, the Tories *don't* have incumbent advantage.  (Which may make for interesting speculation as to what might have happened in Essex federally had Jeff Watson *not* run again.)  All in all, depending on who's running, we may be facing the situation where a provincial Natyshak is actually the highest-profile candidate running, and taken seriously for that fact.

Also remember that former MPP/Lakeshore mayor Pat Hayes ran quite viably against Crozier in '03 (to the point where Crozier lost more share than any incumbent Liberal that year).  That wouldn't have happened had Windsor-Essex not already had such a strong NDP tradition.

[Holmes]

New Ipsos-Reid poll on Ontario.

PC - 40%
Liberals - 34%
NDP - 20%
Green - 6%

Link

Couldn't find it on Ipsos' site - not yet, anyway. mega lol @ Northern Ontario being McGuinty's strongest region, and Hudak being a close second. ok, ipsos.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Ipsos-Reid poll on Ontario.

PC - 40%
Liberals - 34%
NDP - 20%
Green - 6%

Link

Couldn't find it on Ipsos' site - not yet, anyway. mega lol @ Northern Ontario being McGuinty's strongest region, and Hudak being a close second. ok, ipsos.

I just saw that too. I wonder what their definition of "Northern Ontario" is.

Anyways, the "lamestream" media is ignoring Horwath. Today's Sun had a pull out profile of Hudak vs. McGuinty, totally ignoring her.

[Holmes]

Not exactly. The Toronto Sun published an article the other week about how the PCs are taking the race for granted, and how that helps - "yikes!" - the NDP (in their words). Was probably stealth advice, though.

Not that it matters though. Who's really paying attention to the provincial race now, anyway? Might as well wait until the end of August until things start to get interesting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not exactly. The Toronto Sun published an article the other week about how the PCs are taking the race for granted, and how that helps - "yikes!" - the NDP (in their words). Was probably stealth advice, though.

Not that it matters though. Who's really paying attention to the provincial race now, anyway? Might as well wait until the end of August until things start to get interesting.

True, no one's paying attention.  The provincial NDP may getting in the news in the GTA, but I havent seen much of them here.

[2952-0-0]

Does anyone else have the gut feeling that Hudak is the right type of leader to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by taking his faux-populism too far?

[mileslunn]

Does anyone else have the gut feeling that Hudak is the right type of leader to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by taking his faux-populism too far?

He certainly could lose, although it will probably be due to something stupid.  I also think the federal election and municipal election may have helped the Liberals as they realize just how well parties on the right can do and will be much better prepared than their federal counterparts were.  Still I would give the edge to the PCs, but far from certain.  I also highly doubt they will win 73 seats like their federal counterparts did and nor do I think the Liberals will fall to only 11 seats.  They may though get fewer seats than Dion got in Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

The provincial Tories must have $$$. Lots of ads during game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals.  Ads must have cost a fortune.

[Hash]

The provincial Tories must have $$$. Lots of ads during game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals.  Ads must have cost a fortune.

Thank God I hate Don Cherry too much to live through CBC hockey coverage so that I didn't have to puke at Hudak in addition to the vulgar retard. God bless American television, saving us from the failmedia of this stupid country.

[Hatman 🍁]

The provincial Tories must have $$$. Lots of ads during game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals.  Ads must have cost a fortune.

Thank God I hate Don Cherry too much to live through CBC hockey coverage so that I didn't have to puke at Hudak in addition to the vulgar retard. God bless American television, saving us from the failmedia of this stupid country.

wut

[Holmes]

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/06/23/socialism-is-not-a-dirty-word-horwath

At least Fox News is a little discreet. Everything about this article screams "conservative hackness", from the title, to the screencap.

[Hatman 🍁]

http://www.torontosun.com/2011/06/23/socialism-is-not-a-dirty-word-horwath

At least Fox News is a little discreet. Everything about this article screams "conservative hackness", from the title, to the screencap.

Ugh... the comments section disgusts me.

[Holmes]

Hatman, how would you have voted for the resolution at the NDP convention to remove the mention of socialism in the constitution's preamble? I probably would've leaned towards replacing it with social democracy, but of course I would've considered it more had I been there.