2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[minionofmidas]

Hanson racked in the Highest vote (in a three way race) with 63% of the vote

Elias (Vuntut Gwitchen) had the highest overall with 64%... but thats the riding with no NDP candidate... which boggles my mind since they held this riding before 2006!

It's a Reserve. *shrug*

[DL]

Labrador West (so solid I'd eat my shirt if they NDP lose) omnomnom?

How does the shirt taste?

I think the NDP has a fantastic foundation for the future in NL. Having a base in St. John's is KEY and it is probably inevitable that Dunderdale will lose popularity and the next election will be more competitive. I wonder if Lorraine Michael stick around for the NDP. She is 69 (I believe) and has had two kicks at the can. She may want to step aside gracefully and let someone like Dale Kirby of St. John's North run for Premier in 2015...btw: unless someone changes the fixed election dates the 2015 NL election will happen at exactly the same time as the 2015 federal election - making it even more likely that the NDP can cross pollinate federal and provincial popularity.

[lilTommy]

Labrador West (so solid I'd eat my shirt if they NDP lose) omnomnom?

How does the shirt taste?

I think the NDP has a fantastic foundation for the future in NL. Having a base in St. John's is KEY and it is probably inevitable that Dunderdale will lose popularity and the next election will be more competitive. I wonder if Lorraine Michael stick around for the NDP. She is 69 (I believe) and has had two kicks at the can. She may want to step aside gracefully and let someone like Dale Kirby of St. John's North run for Premier in 2015...btw: unless someone changes the fixed election dates the 2015 NL election will happen at exactly the same time as the 2015 federal election - making it even more likely that the NDP can cross pollinate federal and provincial popularity.

I thought about that too, Michaels probably wont step down for at least a year or so, while the liberals are in a sort a mess with no leader this is not the time to start a leadership race. In a year or so she will have built something solid in the House and can afford to step aside, remember shes not only the leader but the only one with any elected experience. I've heard Keith Dunne and Julie Mitchels names punted about for leader... both lost but with Mitchel there might be a recount and whos to say some of the old timer tory MHAs might step down if things don't go well... note Osborne in ST south was elected in 96, so hes getting way past his prime.
 

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

RURAL
40.54% YP
31.37% NDP
25.45% Lib
2.65% Oth

WHITEHORSE
39.41% YP
34.95% NDP
24.31% Lib
1.33% Grn

[lilTommy]

RURAL
40.54% YP
31.37% NDP
25.45% Lib
2.65% Oth

WHITEHORSE
39.41% YP
34.95% NDP
24.31% Lib
1.33% Grn

Thats pretty even, Odd that with 40% they only won 3 rural ridings, and two were close. The YP really did win over Whitehorse 7 ridings to the NDPs4. Also interesting... the Liberals were only second in three ridings (Porter Creek Centre and South and Copperbelt South)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting that every single Liberal MHA holds a seat west of White Bay and that they were only genuinely competitive in one seat east of it. So... why was there a Genepool Dead Cat Bounce in far the west of the island, but something close to the electoral extinction of the Genepool Vote in almost every seat further east? I suppose the Liberal leader being from the west may have been a factor, even if he couldn't win his own seat, but I'd be interested in hearing other theories (especially if they add up, as that one doesn't).

[adma]

The only real "record" broken for the NDP was in Newfoundland, and even there, they underperformed expectations.

Or rather, the Liberals overperformed expectations, at least when it comes to seat numbers.

[MaxQue]

Interesting that every single Liberal MHA holds a seat west of White Bay and that they were only genuinely competitive in one seat east of it. So... why was there a Genepool Dead Cat Bounce in far the west of the island, but something close to the electoral extinction of the Genepool Vote in almost every seat further east? I suppose the Liberal leader being from the west may have been a factor, even if he couldn't win his own seat, but I'd be interested in hearing other theories (especially if they add up, as that one doesn't).

Tra-Di-Tion, no?

[Kevinstat]

Yukon population: 34,246
Whitehorse: 26,711

By those figures, Whitehorse has 14.82/19 of the Yukon Territory's population.  Are the municipal limits of Whitehorse the square box shown in the CBC's Yukon Votes 2011 Interactive Results Map?  So including part of Kluane, Lake Laberge, and Mount Lorne - Southern Lakes (perhaps a majority of the population of one, two or all three of these)?  In that case the 11 "Whitehorse" ridings cover like maybe 15% (probably closer to 10%) of the city's area?  Is Whitehorse like Anchorage in terms of how for out it's city limits extend in comparison to what the casual observer might consider to be Whitehorse?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tra-Di-Tion, no?

Sure, that explains why they did... I won't say well but... west of White Bay. Absolutely. But there used to be loads of mighty Liberal strongholds on the rest of the island; and no Genepool Dead Cat Bounce there, but, actually, the opposite. Just look at the 2003 election:

[MaxQue]

Tra-Di-Tion, no?

Sure, that explains why they did... I won't say well but... west of White Bay. Absolutely. But there used to be loads of mighty Liberal strongholds on the rest of the island; and no Genepool Dead Cat Bounce there, but, actually, the opposite. Just look at the 2003 election:

Less isolated, so, less traditionnal?
Proximity with "non-conformist" St. John's?

[lilTommy]

The only real "record" broken for the NDP was in Newfoundland, and even there, they underperformed expectations.

Or rather, the Liberals overperformed expectations, at least when it comes to seat numbers.

The Liberal vote was VERY effcient and concentrated in the Western portion... i have no idea why, there looks to be no tradition based on those 2003 maps when they last were government. The only thing i can think is local guy mattered.
The NDP vote was also very localised to some degree on the Eastern coast and absolutely in the Avalon, BUT the tories are also very strong in the Avalon so it was battle royal there. The NDP was second in every riding and some were relatively close 5-10% off. Given that many members were elected in 2007 with 60-70+% wins, thats a great showing!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember 2003 was a disaster for the Newfie Liberals by normal standards; most of that area was still basically Genepool Liberal. And, also, Danny Williams was based in the area - and they had lost a seat (the one now held by the NDP) to the PCs in a by-election.

[Smid]

2011 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election Map - Swing To/Against the PC Party



2011 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election Map - Swing To/Against the Liberal Party



2011 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election Map - Swing To/Against the NDP

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Question.

I've been able to keep this thread updated throughout the elections. Saskatchewan takes place in a few weeks. NL, PE, MB, and YK all elected Majority governments. BC goes in 2013, and NB in 2014, but NS, QC, and AB have no set dates, and Ontario is in a minority situation. Ontario and Quebec elections, though, are "big" enough to get their own threads, so that leaves NS and AB.

NS is expected in 2013, but AB "plans a 2012 election". EDIT to add "Where she had previously said she would like to see a March 2012 election, she now said she's looking at June"

In short, I'm wondering if I should bother keeping track of this thread so that I can bring it back to live in 2012, or, if we should create another one of these super-threads in 2015 and just go back to individual threads?

I vote for the latter.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest will likely send we Quebecers to the polls sometime between next December and February 2013, with the likeliest date next December. A month on either side of the 4-year mark has been the case for all but 1 majority government of the past 30 years.

To your question: the latter.

[You kip if you want to...]

Didn't Christie Clark want to go for an early election?

[MaxQue]

Quebec obviously needs its own thread, its party system being very different of the rest of Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

Each province should have its own thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Finally, an update! Manitoba results analysis: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/manitoba-2011-election-results.html

[Smid]

As always, a thorough analysis of results. Really well done!

[mileslunn]

In addition to Quebec, I suspect Alberta will have an election next year.  Considering Redford is a Red Tory, it will be interesting to see if this benefits the WRA or are the Liberals or NDP able to come up the middle in several ridings.  Likewise she is from Calgary and much of Ed Stelmach's waning popularity was due to the fact many in Calgary didn't like the idea of having an Edmonton premier so it is not as simple as a left vs. right.  British Columbia probably won't go to the polls until 2013, but possibly sooner.  In the case of Quebec, I wouldn't be surprised if they have one next year especially considering the infighting in the Parti Quebecois and the fact neither the ADQ, QS, or the proprosed new right of centre alternative party have had enough time to gain any traction.  If Charest waits too long one of those could gain traction.

[Smid]

In addition to Quebec, I suspect Alberta will have an election next year.  Considering Redford is a Red Tory, it will be interesting to see if this benefits the WRA or are the Liberals or NDP able to come up the middle in several ridings.  Likewise she is from Calgary and much of Ed Stelmach's waning popularity was due to the fact many in Calgary didn't like the idea of having an Edmonton premier so it is not as simple as a left vs. right.  British Columbia probably won't go to the polls until 2013, but possibly sooner.  In the case of Quebec, I wouldn't be surprised if they have one next year especially considering the infighting in the Parti Quebecois and the fact neither the ADQ, QS, or the proprosed new right of centre alternative party have had enough time to gain any traction.  If Charest waits too long one of those could gain traction.

Part way through base maps for Alberta and Quebec (Alberta had a redistribution last year, after I'd prepared base maps for it). Quebec's looking pretty close to finished, but Alberta's still a little way's off. I figure if I can get them both pretty near done, then if either calls an election, I can focus on completing that province's maps.

Since Alberta had its redistribution, might someone else like to attempt to work out some notional margins? It could be useful in looking at areas which had the greatest swings to Wild Rose (assuming there actually are swings to Wild Rose).

Your point about the Liberals and NDP potentially benefiting is interesting. On the one hand some of their supporters may wish to back Redford (either because they like her positions, or because they'd rather see a PC Government, rather than a WRA Government), but on the other hand, with WRA and PC splitting the right-of-centre vote, there are probably opportunities for the Liberals and NDP, thus potentially dissuading voters from voting PC just to keep out Wild Rose. I think it's going to be a very, very interesting election.

Last election results for Alberta are in the gallery (and obviously based on old boundaries).

[MaxQue]

In addition to Quebec, I suspect Alberta will have an election next year.  Considering Redford is a Red Tory, it will be interesting to see if this benefits the WRA or are the Liberals or NDP able to come up the middle in several ridings.  Likewise she is from Calgary and much of Ed Stelmach's waning popularity was due to the fact many in Calgary didn't like the idea of having an Edmonton premier so it is not as simple as a left vs. right.  British Columbia probably won't go to the polls until 2013, but possibly sooner.  In the case of Quebec, I wouldn't be surprised if they have one next year especially considering the infighting in the Parti Quebecois and the fact neither the ADQ, QS, or the proprosed new right of centre alternative party have had enough time to gain any traction.  If Charest waits too long one of those could gain traction.

Part way through base maps for Alberta and Quebec. Quebec's looking pretty close to finished, but Alberta's still a little way's off. I figure if I can get them both pretty near done, then if either calls an election, I can focus on completing that province's maps.

Don't rush too much for Quebec, we don't know if we will use the old map or the new one (which is done, but not passed by the Assembly yet, if it's ever pass.)

[Smid]

Don't rush too much for Quebec, we don't know if we will use the old map or the new one (which is done, but not passed by the Assembly yet, if it's ever pass.)

Cheers for the warning!

Any link for the new map? What are the odds of the new map not passing, or of another new map having to be drawn?