2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman, how would you have voted for the resolution at the NDP convention to remove the mention of socialism in the constitution's preamble? I probably would've leaned towards replacing it with social democracy, but of course I would've considered it more had I been there.

I would have, but it wouldn't have passed. I did vote for deferral however (in case you didn't know, I was there )

[Holmes]

Really!? I'm jealous! I knew you went to the Halifax convention, but I had no idea you were going to Vancouver. Hum, I wish I had the opportunity to go.

[Hatman 🍁]

Really!? I'm jealous! I knew you went to the Halifax convention, but I had no idea you were going to Vancouver. Hum, I wish I had the opportunity to go.

You should have! I met a couple of posters from here actually.

I really had to max out the old credit card for the trip, but I had a lot of fun. If my Vancouver friends weren't such heavy drinkers, I could have been a bit cheaper, but I had free accommodations, so I cant complain.

The best part was when the actor that played Tommy Douglas in the Prairie Giant movie spoke in character in the 50th anniversary showcase. They even dressed up the stage to make it look like it was the 1st "New Party" convention.

[mileslunn]

New poll out by Forum Research for Ontario. PCs 41%, Liberals 26% and NDP 22%.  With those numbers the results wouldn't be that far off the last federal election.  Off course I really doubt the Liberals will fall to only 11 seats, but I could see them doing worse than Dion did in 2008 in Ontario, otherwise less than 38 seats.

[DL]

The Liberal vote in Ontario tend to be very very inefficient at lower levels. Look at how in the federal election, the NDP and the Liberals had almost exactly the same popular vote but the NDP wound up with 22 seats compared to the Liberals 11. I think that if the NDP come within even 5 points of the Ontario Liberals (let alone surpasses them) - the NDP will be the official opposition to the Tories - and the final nail will have been hammered into the Liberal coffin.

[Hatman 🍁]

New poll out by Forum Research for Ontario. PCs 41%, Liberals 26% and NDP 22%.  With those numbers the results wouldn't be that far off the last federal election.  Off course I really doubt the Liberals will fall to only 11 seats, but I could see them doing worse than Dion did in 2008 in Ontario, otherwise less than 38 seats.

Looks like those Hudak ads have helped them... and the NDP to a degree.

[adma]

If it held up, would 26% be a record low for the provincial Liberals?  Even in the Big Blue Machine years, it seems, at worst they never really went much below 30%...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That would be a ridiculously large swing. Comparing to the last election you have PC +9.4, Lib -16.2, NDP +5.3

If it held up, would 26% be a record low for the provincial Liberals?  Even in the Big Blue Machine years, it seems, at worst they never really went much below 30%...

Yeah, even in 1971 they did better than that.

Seems that the last time they were below 26% was in 1926. Did parties even run candidates everywhere back then?

[DL]

The Liberals had 27% of the vote in 1971 and the NDP also had about 27% and the Tories under David had 44% - that gave the PCs 71 seats and the Liberals and NDP 20 and 19 seats respectively. Of course those were the days when the Ontario Liberals were a very rightwing rural party that tended to have a stranglehold on rural seats in southwestern Ontario and almost no support in Toronto (in other words the Ontario Liberals of the 60s and 70s were the same as the Hudak PCs of today).

[Хahar 🤔]

The Liberal vote in Ontario tend to be very very inefficient at lower levels. Look at how in the federal election, the NDP and the Liberals had almost exactly the same popular vote but the NDP wound up with 22 seats compared to the Liberals 11. I think that if the NDP come within even 5 points of the Ontario Liberals (let alone surpasses them) - the NDP will be the official opposition to the Tories - and the final nail will have been hammered into the Liberal coffin.

That's the eternal problem of centrist parties. In every province where the Liberals and NDP have both been viable forces (British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and to an extent Ontario; Nova Scotia hasn't had a relevant NDP for long enough to tell), the Liberals have survived by becoming a party of the right. A centrist party can only remain feasible for as long as it captures a large portion of the vote, because of the way its vote tends to be scattered geographically.

[Peter the Lefty]

New poll out by Forum Research for Ontario. PCs 41%, Liberals 26% and NDP 22%.  With those numbers the results wouldn't be that far off the last federal election.  Off course I really doubt the Liberals will fall to only 11 seats, but I could see them doing worse than Dion did in 2008 in Ontario, otherwise less than 38 seats.

The Orange Crush may strike yet again.  Polls for the federal election didn't put the NDP ahead of the Liberals until less than two weeks before the election.  We still got until October, and they're only 4 percentage points away from each other. 

[RogueBeaver]

New poll out by Forum Research for Ontario. PCs 41%, Liberals 26% and NDP 22%.  With those numbers the results wouldn't be that far off the last federal election.  Off course I really doubt the Liberals will fall to only 11 seats, but I could see them doing worse than Dion did in 2008 in Ontario, otherwise less than 38 seats.

The Orange Crush may strike yet again.  Polls for the federal election didn't put the NDP ahead of the Liberals until less than two weeks before the election.  We still got until October, and they're only 4 percentage points away from each other. 

Horwath is no Layton (indeed, even Rees-Cohn admitted today that her performance has been fairly amateurish till recently), and the OLP's machinery is in much better shape than the LPC's. That said, given how much Dad is hated, I wouldn't be surprised if the Libs did indeed slip into 3rd.

[MaxQue]

New poll out by Forum Research for Ontario. PCs 41%, Liberals 26% and NDP 22%.  With those numbers the results wouldn't be that far off the last federal election.  Off course I really doubt the Liberals will fall to only 11 seats, but I could see them doing worse than Dion did in 2008 in Ontario, otherwise less than 38 seats.

The Orange Crush may strike yet again.  Polls for the federal election didn't put the NDP ahead of the Liberals until less than two weeks before the election.  We still got until October, and they're only 4 percentage points away from each other. 

Horwath is no Layton (indeed, even Rees-Cohn admitted today that her performance has been fairly amateurish till recently), and the OLP's machinery is in much better shape than the LPC's. That said, given how much Dad is hated, I wouldn't be surprised if the Libs did indeed slip into 3rd.

More and more, I wonder if the so-called "Orange Crush" was real in English Canada. It was perhaps more a case of "Red Sickness".

[RogueBeaver]

New poll out by Forum Research for Ontario. PCs 41%, Liberals 26% and NDP 22%.  With those numbers the results wouldn't be that far off the last federal election.  Off course I really doubt the Liberals will fall to only 11 seats, but I could see them doing worse than Dion did in 2008 in Ontario, otherwise less than 38 seats.

The Orange Crush may strike yet again.  Polls for the federal election didn't put the NDP ahead of the Liberals until less than two weeks before the election.  We still got until October, and they're only 4 percentage points away from each other. 

Horwath is no Layton (indeed, even Rees-Cohn admitted today that her performance has been fairly amateurish till recently), and the OLP's machinery is in much better shape than the LPC's. That said, given how much Dad is hated, I wouldn't be surprised if the Libs did indeed slip into 3rd.

More and more, I wonder if the so-called "Orange Crush" was real in English Canada. It was perhaps more a case of "Red Sickness".

English Canada: A combination of running as NDP-lite, Iggy's poor leadership and structural problems that date to 2003. Think about this: the last time their machinery was operational, it was used in the Great Chretienite Purge leading up to the 2004 election.

Just so long as Rae stays away, because Hudak would wank in public if he could get a picture of Ontario's two most radioactive politicians sharing a platform. The only Liberal MP who might participate will be the Hon. member for Papineau buzzing around the GTA like he did for Smitherman and Ruby Dhalla. Good press for him, but absolutely no benefits for those who issued the invitation.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos-Reid for Ontario (change from May)

Tories: 42 (+2)
Liberals: 31 (-3)
NDP: 22 (+2)
Greens: 5  (-1)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

My ElectoMatic based prediction for Ontario is:

(go to http://esm.ubc.ca/ON11/forecast.php and put in these numbers where these squares meet Lib-Lib 0.613 & PC-PC 0.941)

PC - 52
Lib - 36
NDP - 19

I could actually see the Liberals and NDP going into an official coalition.

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont think so... the Tories win a majority with those numbers methinks.

[DL]

If the Ontario PCs won the most seats but fell just short of a majority - it would be interesting to see what would happen. McGuinty as the incumbent Premier would be well within his rights to put forth a throne speech and try to get it passed with NDP support - then again he might also do what Paul Martin did on election night '06 and resign on the spot - in which case we would have a delicious repeat of what happened federally after 2006 where the Liberal official opposition propped up a Tory minority government in exchange for nothing while an emboldened and strengthened NDP got to be the "opposition in all but name".

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I dont think so... the Tories win a majority with those numbers methinks.

My ElectoMatic (which was proven the best in the last federal election) was designed to do what I instructed people to do with the UBC forecaster above, so I trust the numbers; the "problem" is that a single point change in the polls can mean a dozen seats change hands.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the Ontario PCs won the most seats but fell just short of a majority - it would be interesting to see what would happen. McGuinty as the incumbent Premier would be well within his rights to put forth a throne speech and try to get it passed with NDP support - then again he might also do what Paul Martin did on election night '06 and resign on the spot - in which case we would have a delicious repeat of what happened federally after 2006 where the Liberal official opposition propped up a Tory minority government in exchange for nothing while an emboldened and strengthened NDP got to be the "opposition in all but name".

Except, minority governments will be harder to come by in Ontario due to the lack of the Bloc. The NDP has to do really well, and the Liberals have to hold their own a bit too, which is an unlikely scenario. Either the NDP does well and the Liberals tank or the Liberals hold their own and the NDP only makes marginal gains. In other words, a perfect balance would have to occur for there to be a Tory minority.

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont think so... the Tories win a majority with those numbers methinks.

My ElectoMatic (which was proven the best in the last federal election) was designed to do what I instructed people to do with the UBC forecaster above, so I trust the numbers; the "problem" is that a single point change in the polls can mean a dozen seats change hands.

Hmm. I think I'll have to create a swing-o-metre for Ontario to make things easier...

[DL]

Except, minority governments will be harder to come by in Ontario due to the lack of the Bloc. The NDP has to do really well, and the Liberals have to hold their own a bit too, which is an unlikely scenario. Either the NDP does well and the Liberals tank or the Liberals hold their own and the NDP only makes marginal gains. In other words, a perfect balance would have to occur for there to be a Tory minority.

I don't think it would take that much of a "freak result". What if the gap narrowed to just a 5 or 6 point Tory lead (very possible) and we ended up with something like PC - 39%, Libs - 34%, NDP - 22% (or for that matter let's say the NDP gets a more 'low end" 20% and the Tories get 40 and the Liberals 35) - if that happened, we would probably be looking at something like the seat split in Ontario federally in 2008 (C - 52, Libs 38, NDP 17). In 1985 we had a 51-49-25 seat split. I think its extremely likely that the ONDP gets in the high-teens seat-wise - and then all it takes for a minority government is for the Tories to be kept to a low to mid single digit lead over the Liberals.

[Holmes]

If the Tories have a minority, the NDP propping up the Liberals, or forming a coalition with them, with McGuinty still as the leader of the Liberals would be suicide.

[DL]

If the Tories have a minority, the NDP propping up the Liberals, or forming a coalition with them, with McGuinty still as the leader of the Liberals would be suicide.

Would it not be even more suicidal for the NDP to support a Tory throne speech and allow Hudak to form a government and then go on a rightwing rampage of slashing and burning?

I suspect that in that scenario - Horwath would do one of two things - either enter into negotiations with both the Liberals and the PCs and see which party would make the most concessions to the NDP OR announce on election night that the NDP will not support a Tory government under any circumstances and try to maneouvre the Liberals into having to be Hudak's "silent partner"

[Hatman 🍁]

Except, minority governments will be harder to come by in Ontario due to the lack of the Bloc. The NDP has to do really well, and the Liberals have to hold their own a bit too, which is an unlikely scenario. Either the NDP does well and the Liberals tank or the Liberals hold their own and the NDP only makes marginal gains. In other words, a perfect balance would have to occur for there to be a Tory minority.

I don't think it would take that much of a "freak result". What if the gap narrowed to just a 5 or 6 point Tory lead (very possible) and we ended up with something like PC - 39%, Libs - 34%, NDP - 22% (or for that matter let's say the NDP gets a more 'low end" 20% and the Tories get 40 and the Liberals 35) - if that happened, we would probably be looking at something like the seat split in Ontario federally in 2008 (C - 52, Libs 38, NDP 17). In 1985 we had a 51-49-25 seat split. I think its extremely likely that the ONDP gets in the high-teens seat-wise - and then all it takes for a minority government is for the Tories to be kept to a low to mid single digit lead over the Liberals.

1985 was a rare event indeed. Of course, it could happen again this time, but it work require the perfect storm.