2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Hash]

Fell across this fabulous website: http://manitobaelection.ca/historic-maps

[Smid]

Fell across this fabulous website: http://manitobaelection.ca/historic-maps

Excellent website! Should probably be added to the links thread (as should Earl's website, I think).

[Smid]

2011 Manitoba Provincial Election - Turnout
Includes all valid votes, and also rejected and declined ballots (not that there are many of those).




2011 Manitoba Provincial Election - Total Votes Received

[Hatman 🍁]

Interestingly low in the conservative south, I thought higher turnouts there accounted for their higher share of the vote, but I guess it's just as bad there as it is in the north.

I guess one advantage of FPTP is it evens out the non voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's very telling is that, for the most part, it's higher in seats where there was (at least the perception of) a competitive race.

[Smid]

What's very telling is that, for the most part, it's higher in seats where there was (at least the perception of) a competitive race.

That was the biggest thing I got out of it - I noted yesterday about River Heights having >75% turnout (as it turns out, heh heh, it's the highest turnout in the province). Brandon West vs Brandon East also appears to support this hypothesis.

Interestingly low in the conservative south, I thought higher turnouts there accounted for their higher share of the vote, but I guess it's just as bad there as it is in the north.

I guess one advantage of FPTP is it evens out the non voters.

Marginally (but only marginally) higher in the south - the real difference is that the Northern ridings can have fewer voters, so the combination of fewer voters and low turnout has a bit of an impact (not a heck of a lot, though - Flin Flon has the fewest voters, about 4,000 fewer than average). There is also lower turnout in those very safe NDP electorates in the inner-North of Winnipeg. I think the UK has a similar issue, where some of the very safe Labour seats have lower turnout than similarly safe Conservative seats? Al can probably correct me there. Over here, informal vote tends to be higher in some of the safe Labor seats, although some of that is accidental (there is a correlation between non-English speaking first language and informal voting, there is also a correlation between low levels of education and informal voting, but I haven't seen any study to say whether that informal voting is accidental or deliberate but perhaps people with lower levels of education are more likely to feel disengaged from the system and more likely to deliberately cast an informal "a pox on all your houses" vote, oh, also a correlation between a higher number of candidates and informal votes, but that's clearly accidental informal votes).

The reason I'm rambling on about informals here is because under our compulsory vote system, while there is a small degree of difference in turnout between electorates, it's tiny compared to the turnout figures here, and the people who may refuse to vote in a non-compulsory system are likely to be people who feel disengaged, or where they feel their vote is insignificant, and I think that this compares well to people who deliberately cast an informal ballot in a compulsory vote system. There have been some studies relating to accidental vs deliberate informal votes (eg at the 2006 Victorian State Election, about half were accidental and half deliberate, however at the 2010 Victorian State Election, the number of accidental informal ballots fell dramatically, while the number of deliberate informal ballots rose slightly, and so as a percentage, rose very dramatically, prompting the VEC to conclude that its voter education program had been successful). Obviously some of the remote ridings may have issues relating to difficulty in voting, but by and large, I think the comparison is acceptable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could not sleep. So thought... why not do something productive. Work not a great idea at such an hour, however. Therefore...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Fell across this fabulous website: http://manitobaelection.ca/historic-maps

Find the creator.
Invite him here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, I take it that everyone noticed that Maloway underperformed in Elmwood?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Everyone underperforms compared to Blaikie.

[MaxQue]

Anyways, I take it that everyone noticed that Maloway underperformed in Elmwood?

Too bad than he didn't lose.
That guy is a shame for the NDP and should have been dumped.

[Smid]

Antony Green has a post about this week's Canadian elections

Of particular interest is the link he posted in his response to the first comment.

[Holmes]

NDP up 7% in BC. But we've all seen this before. NDP does good in BC in between elections, but come election day...

NDP - 45%
BC Libs - 38%
BC Cons - 12%
Green - 6%

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Democrats+pull+decisive+lead+poll+finds/5514730/story.html

What's interesting is BC Conservatives at 12%.

[Holmes]

New poll for Newfoundland and Labrador, but it's weird. The numbers are way too low. Undecideds at 30%?

PC - 38%
NDP - 23%
Lib - 9%

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Canada/1266958.html

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

That's
54% PC
33% NDP
13% Lib

Same as last time

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Signal Hill
St. John's Centre
Placentia
Labrador West

These are the only 4 ridings that consistently come up NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

Signal Hill
St. John's Centre
Placentia
Labrador West

These are the only 4 ridings that consistently come up NDP

Burin?

[lilTommy]

You know St. john's Centre is comptitive when the Tories bring out the Mayor to campagin for you... sound scared to me

CBC news covered SJ North and South, saying there both NDP targets, they performed poorly in 2007 but this year, can we basically throw out the stats from 07 and start over since the NDP is roughly 3x higher with two MPs

Olivia Chow is just all over the place too... she will be campaigning for the NDP is St John's. She was in the Yukon last week doing the same (and pushing her National public transit issue)

[Hatman 🍁]

I got a phone blast from Olivia yesterday. I admire her going out there and doing this, I just hope the voters don't think it's off putting.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Signal Hill
St. John's Centre
Placentia
Labrador West

These are the only 4 ridings that consistently come up NDP

Burin?

Yes, you are right. 5 seats.

[Smid]

2007 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election Results


Just as information in advance of next week's election. Bigger version in the gallery, also an outline map in the blank map gallery, and a key map in there also:

Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Ridings

[Hatman 🍁]

Final predictions:

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/newfoundland-and-labrador-2011-election.html

[lilTommy]

Yukon Poll: They also go today, this could (very well could) elect the NDP... most likley a minority where the Liberals will hold the balance.

http://www.datapathsystems.net/

It is a dead heat:

NDP             35% (about the same as last poll)
Yukon Party     35% (down)
Liberals             26% (up)
Greens            2%
First Nations       2%

Based on sample size, the margin of error is +/- 5.1%.

[MaxQue]

Good, the NDP leader is the lone NDPer in the Assembly (they were two, but the other one sadly died in a car crash this summer.)

[Holmes]

Well, I hope the NDP can come out as the Opposition in NL. What times do polls close? And NL must have the most boring party logos ever.

As for Yukon, with things this close, and it being Yukon, there may be some strange results... NDP will do great in Whitehourse, Yukon Party outside of it, but with Liberals only 9% behind, they might be spoilers in some cases. Could tip things.