2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Хahar 🤔]

I believe that each province gets its own thread.

[Хahar 🤔]

The Liberal vote in Ontario tend to be very very inefficient at lower levels. Look at how in the federal election, the NDP and the Liberals had almost exactly the same popular vote but the NDP wound up with 22 seats compared to the Liberals 11. I think that if the NDP come within even 5 points of the Ontario Liberals (let alone surpasses them) - the NDP will be the official opposition to the Tories - and the final nail will have been hammered into the Liberal coffin.

That's the eternal problem of centrist parties. In every province where the Liberals and NDP have both been viable forces (British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and to an extent Ontario; Nova Scotia hasn't had a relevant NDP for long enough to tell), the Liberals have survived by becoming a party of the right. A centrist party can only remain feasible for as long as it captures a large portion of the vote, because of the way its vote tends to be scattered geographically.

[Хahar 🤔]

On the table at the bottom I think you switched "including toss ups" and "excluding toss ups".

[Хahar 🤔]

How did John Crosbie come to exist? He doesn't seem to be the sort of person who would get anywhere in Newfoundland.

[Хahar 🤔]

There is a precedent for a party going from being in government and even a natural governing party of a province - to being dead in very short order.

True; obviously you've mentioned the most remarkable example, but there's also the Saskatchewan PCs, the SoCreds, the old conservative Liberals in Manitoba and Saskatchewan... to say nothing of the near-death experiences of once-governing NDP's in a couple of provinces. Given the massive historical importance of the Newfie Liberals, this would be up there with the UN, even if the fall won't have been quite as dramatic. If it happens.

And it happens more often in Canada than it does anywhere else.

[Хahar 🤔]

BTW, Yukon opinion polls are sh*t. I remember the last one had the NDP doing well, but they only won 2 seats. 

It's certainly impossible to accurately poll a population that is so small and disparate.

[Хahar 🤔]

The Saskatchewan Liberal Party is a little bit out there.

[Хahar 🤔]

Not bad to be at 9 seats with just 30% of the vote. Surprised 308 had the NDP with 15 seats. lololol.

If we accept that everything 308 has is probably ridiculous, we never need to talk about 308 again.

[Хahar 🤔]

The NDP does not have any rural ridings. The only non-urban ridings they hold are barren.

The NDP barely has any ridings, so this election probably isn't a good way to judge that.

[Хahar 🤔]

They're not going to run a full slate, are they?

[Хahar 🤔]

They're not going to run a full slate, are they?

Of course they are. In due time the Tories might surpass or exceed the Liberals.

In 2009 they only had candidates in 24 out of 85 ridings. It seems far from obvious to me that they would run a full slate this time.

[Хahar 🤔]

http://www.straight.com/article-574381/vancouver/christy-clark-faces-bigger-risk-bc-voters-if-adrian-dix-stays-front-polls

History might be repeating ala SoCreds 91

I find it interesting that its the right that seems to always fracture or re-orient into a new party or run en-mass to another party. The CCF/NDP has always been the progressive option in BC. Even after 2001 when they won only 2 seats; a new party of progressive didn't emerge or even bolt en-mass to the greens.
any thoughts on why?

I'm sure the link to the federal party helps in that regard; while provincial NDPs sometimes hold back the federal party (witness the relatively poor results in Manitoba and Nova Scotia in 2011), the presence of the federal party as a strong political force means that the provincial parties will always have a certain amount of stability.