2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[MaxQue]

Just got a call from the PC Party of Ontario. It was an old lady so I acted polite. But damn, they're already calling people? Especially in northern Ontario? They must want this. lol

Federal Conservatives were callng in my area since 2008 election.
And NDP started phone calls in Outremont in February.

[MaxQue]

I think the collapse of the Liberal right wing helped to destroy the Liberals. Who is left on that front? Many of those infamous right wing Scarborough MPs either retired or were defeated.  With the election of Bob Rae as interim leader, they can say  goodbye to their right wing. I'm disappointed that Rae agreed not to run for leader, agreeing to serve only the interim. Not because I like him - far from it - but because it would further destroy the Liberals, continuing in the footsteps of Dion and Ignatieff. But I suppose tradition dictates they go French this time, so we will see either Trudeau or LeBlanc be leader. Or maybe even Garneau.

Trudeau might help the Liberals in the GTA, but that's about it. And that's their best hope.

Trudeau would kill the Liberal Party in Quebec for another generation, too.

[MaxQue]

New poll out by Forum Research for Ontario. PCs 41%, Liberals 26% and NDP 22%.  With those numbers the results wouldn't be that far off the last federal election.  Off course I really doubt the Liberals will fall to only 11 seats, but I could see them doing worse than Dion did in 2008 in Ontario, otherwise less than 38 seats.

The Orange Crush may strike yet again.  Polls for the federal election didn't put the NDP ahead of the Liberals until less than two weeks before the election.  We still got until October, and they're only 4 percentage points away from each other. 

Horwath is no Layton (indeed, even Rees-Cohn admitted today that her performance has been fairly amateurish till recently), and the OLP's machinery is in much better shape than the LPC's. That said, given how much Dad is hated, I wouldn't be surprised if the Libs did indeed slip into 3rd.

More and more, I wonder if the so-called "Orange Crush" was real in English Canada. It was perhaps more a case of "Red Sickness".

[MaxQue]

If you are going to be putting incorrect projections on your website then I will have to do what I did to 308.

By definition, a projection can't be correct or incorrect until we know election results.

[MaxQue]

Is it more on less nailed on that Hudak will be Ontario's next premier?

I would say yes, but, on August 10th, 2007, I would have said than Tory was almos sure to win.
So, we can't say yet.

[MaxQue]

St. John's is developing voting patterns just like Halifax (remember Halifax was Robert Stanfield's old seat and was Tory for many years - now its a total NDP stronghold). I think by the next election you will see Saint John and Moncton, NB trending NDP as well.

It already began.
Saint John, NB
        CPC LPC NDP
2008  40   38  16 
2011  50   16  31

Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
        CPC LPC NDP
2008  36   39  16 
2011  36   31  29

[MaxQue]

How did John Crosbie come to exist? He doesn't seem to be the sort of person who would get anywhere in Newfoundland.

He was running as the Progressive-Conservative candidate in St. John's, before merger.
St. John's was heavily Red Tory, I think, they don't seem to like Harper at all.

[MaxQue]

I wonder what kind of clown they'll find to put up in Orleans.

Still no one. Seems to be the only riding in the city where the NDP is completely dead. No active riding association, no active campaigns, nothing. ever. It's too bad, I know a lot of public servants live in the riding.

I would blame suburbia, but Nepean-Carleton has a competent candidate in Ric Dagenais, and Carleton-MM even had a contested nomination.

Yeah, they nominated some unknown Haitian student who had no campaign whatsoever in May at the last minute after their original candidate endorsed the Liberal as did some previous federal candidate. But they can still get up to 14% or so, which considering how they nominate clowns and have no base whatsoever is scarily impressive.

The Liberal candidate in my riding got to 18% in my home riding in 2008 even if most of base defected to the Conservatives. And the candidate was beyond awful, he spend the campaign fleeing the journalists asking questions about his criminal record.

[MaxQue]

That will probably be in 2012, but perhaps in 2011. A by-election will by held in Bonaventure, because Nathalie Normandeau, Vice-PM of Quebec and minister of Natural Ressources resigned for personal reasons.

According to medias, that is because her recent relationships were heavily covered by medias. She dated François Bonnardel, an ADQ MNA in 2009. She also dated Yvan Delorme, an former chief of Montreal Police, which has links with a corrupt business called BCIA. That scandal caused the resignation of the Family minister, Tony Tomassi, last year. She is 43, if she wants to have kids, she doesn't have mush time left. And because she is 43, we shouldn't be surprised if she come back in a few years. She had the reputation of being an excellent parlementarian and she was in the favorites to succeed Charest.

Will she come back once he will leave?

That by-election is important because the majority of the government is very tight.

Current standings are:
Liberals - 65
PQ - 46
ADQ - 4
QS - 1
Independants - 9 (2 formers Adéquistes, 1 expelled Liberal, 1 expelled Péquiste and 5 former Péquistes)

So, Bonaventure proper. It has a strong Liberal lean and there 15% of Anglophones, but opposition can win it. Past results aren't very useful, as Normandeau was hugely popular there. The riding was represented from 1956 to 1993, by Gérard D. Lévesque, a Liberal,the longest-serving MNA in history, which was often interim leader of the party during leadership races and was very often in Liberal Cabinets. They elected a PQ MNA in the by-election after his death, which was reelected in 1994, but lost in 1998 to Normandeau.

So, given her absence from the election and the impopularity of Liberals, that election might be interesting. And perhaps Legault's Party will run in it for the first time?

[MaxQue]

The Legault Party isn't running in anything this year, and Bonaventure stays Liberal. I honestly don't see the BFD about Legault, except that the media is making a very unremarkable ex-Peq minister a BFD.

I neither see why people are loving Legault. He was only a more competent PQ minister than Marois was (which isn't saying much, as she was dreadful).

[MaxQue]

The Legault Party isn't running in anything this year, and Bonaventure stays Liberal. I honestly don't see the BFD about Legault, except that the media is making a very unremarkable ex-Peq minister a BFD.

He confirmed that.
Legault also said they may run if the election is in 2012. He said he could perhaps run himself in Bonaventure.
In other news from that part of Quebec, Nancy Charest, former Liberal MNA and federal Liberal candidate in 2008 and 2011 and which seems to have a personality cult there is supporting Legault. She could run for Legault in Matane next time.

[MaxQue]

I doubt they will win the Premiers seat, its happened but generally its not a common thing. Even if the party loses government premiers hold their seats (i know of Peterson only who lost his in 1990 in Ontario)

Bourassa lost his seat in '76.  He *also* lost his seat in 1985, despite winning the general election (as did Don Getty in Alberta a few years later)

Well, for 1985, that is his fault. When he wanted to enter Assembly during his return, he ran in a by-election where a PQ MNA resigned, in the southern suburbs on Montreal. He won.

Obviously, he lost in the general election. That area is strongly Péquiste.

[MaxQue]

Yes, Virginia Waters is in St. John's.

[MaxQue]

Why can't the NDP compete in rural NL?

Oh they can, but it's more of a traditional area, much like PEI or most of Cape Breton or New Brunswick. These areas were will be harder to penetrate, but over a generation may be able to win. But, no one will live there in a generation... so..

If they succeded to be competitive in Quebec, no reason why they can't penetrate there.

But it will need much work.

[MaxQue]

All of these elections on the same date (three days from now)?

No!

PEI and NWT are today, Manitoba is tomorrow.

[MaxQue]

308 guy screws up on this one.

Surprise!

[MaxQue]

I loving Radio-Canada website.

Apparently, the ridings have official French names.

"Seine River" is "Rivière-Seine"
"Interlake" is "Entre-les-Lacs"
"Dawson Trail" is "Chemin-Dawson"

It is quite dumb.

[MaxQue]

How are the elections resolved in case of a tie?  I mean, w/ 3 polls to go in St. Norbert, PC is ahead by 7 votes

According to the Compendium produced by Elections Canada (a wonderful document, explaining electoral laws of each province in a simple way), Manitoba holds a by-election. (some provinces are doing a draw and some ask to the returning officer to choose who is elected.)

[MaxQue]

The returning officer or some such person decides. Usually opts for some random measure such as drawing lots or coin toss.

NO, NO, NO.

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=loi/com&document=index&lang=e

Page 61.

[MaxQue]

A short summary:

By-election: (Canada, Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, Nunavut)
Decision of returning officier: (Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Ontario)
Drawing of lots: (Nova Scotia, Yukon)

Alberta has apparently no law on ties.

[MaxQue]

QC
100 members
Very open

If I remember well, we were having an high candidate count requirement, like Canada had before, but it was stuck by courts.

Kewatinook has returned to an huge NDP lead, with two boxes to count.

[MaxQue]

Quebec donation laws were changed this year.
They must now send the check to the Election Director, not to the party, if the amount is more than 100$.

New donation limit is 1000$/year.

[MaxQue]

Anyways, I take it that everyone noticed that Maloway underperformed in Elmwood?

Too bad than he didn't lose.
That guy is a shame for the NDP and should have been dumped.

[MaxQue]

Good, the NDP leader is the lone NDPer in the Assembly (they were two, but the other one sadly died in a car crash this summer.)

[MaxQue]

Interesting that every single Liberal MHA holds a seat west of White Bay and that they were only genuinely competitive in one seat east of it. So... why was there a Genepool Dead Cat Bounce in far the west of the island, but something close to the electoral extinction of the Genepool Vote in almost every seat further east? I suppose the Liberal leader being from the west may have been a factor, even if he couldn't win his own seat, but I'd be interested in hearing other theories (especially if they add up, as that one doesn't).

Tra-Di-Tion, no?