2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, PEI, and Newfoundland all vote in the fall of this year (either October or November) and I thought it might be reasonable to open a thread on it.

Edit - And that's it folks. After tonight's Sask election, this thread will go unused.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

My ElectoMatic based prediction for Ontario is:

(go to http://esm.ubc.ca/ON11/forecast.php and put in these numbers where these squares meet Lib-Lib 0.613 & PC-PC 0.941)

PC - 52
Lib - 36
NDP - 19

I could actually see the Liberals and NDP going into an official coalition.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I dont think so... the Tories win a majority with those numbers methinks.

My ElectoMatic (which was proven the best in the last federal election) was designed to do what I instructed people to do with the UBC forecaster above, so I trust the numbers; the "problem" is that a single point change in the polls can mean a dozen seats change hands.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

the latest Ipsos-Reid poll gives us a 10-11% swing from the Liberals to the Tories which, assuming a uniform swing (lol), would give the Tories up to 43 more seats, including Ottawa South (McGuinty's seat).

DUDE. Seriously. A flat swing model does NOT work in Canada. You need a ratio swing.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If you are going to be putting incorrect projections on your website then I will have to do what I did to 308.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If you are going to be putting incorrect projections on your website then I will have to do what I did to 308.

You do that, then. But, I have a habit of predicting Ontario better than any other predictor, so I fore warn you.

You use your silly math, and I'll look at the real data: local factors.

Local factors would have had the NDP with 3 seats in Quebec in the last federal election. Math counts for a hell of a lot.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The ElectoMatic is adjustable by region. And I do not have a working Ontario 2011 ElectoMatic at this time; but I point out that Ontario or elsewhere, websites that ignore math do godawful, and websites that use only math without local factors also do poorly. That is why 308 and EPP tied (in a way) for the worst showing. You must combine the two. Things that do not work are:

Flat swings alone. IE adding 11% to every riding.
Talking to a dozen people from the riding alone. IE asking people in the riding who they think will win.

What DOES work? Nothing. If something did we'd not need elections. You can however use something that works best.

All my ElectoMatic does is a bunch of math for me. The math is a simple ratio method. The ratio method works better in places where there are "2.5" or 3 competitive parties. It works like so:

Party A took 20% in the last provincial election. In Riding 1 they took 10%, and in Riding 2 they took 30%.

Lets say they are polling at 30% province-wide. According to a flat method, you'd change riding 1 to 20% and riding 2 to 40%. If, however, you compare this to a real election, you'll see this does not work very well.

A ratio method looks at the change. 30% is 1.5 times, or 150% of 20%. Riding 1 would then be increased by the same amount, and thus, become 15%, while Riding 2 becomes 45%.

Now if you do this for each party, you'll find some ridings with numbers like 14%, 19% 33%, and others with numbers like 31%, 40%, and 52%. You need to re-add these numbers and re-divide them so they total 100. This is all the ElectoMatic does; it does that for me, it is not a magic machine, it just makes the ratio method easier to calculate.

If you are willing to hear me out, I will compare the 2007 Ontario election to the 2003 election (presuming they used the same map?? if not, then 2003 to 1999, or any two elections since the 1970's) using my Ratio method, and your earlier looked at Flat method, and we can see which one is better. I'm even willing to break the map down into areas (GTA, Ottawa, Rural, etc) of your choosing, and comparing Ratio and Flat in both.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Have you ever seen my website? I never "reduces everything to a proportional increase and calls it a day"

To be blunt, after I'm right and you guys are wrong, you guys will continue to not care and imagine I was somehow wrong.

I was right for the federal election, but I gained a grand total of 5 readers. If you want to be wrong about the election, go ahead and be wrong. I've offered you proof, and both of you changed the subject, so I will no longer be responding to either of you on this matter.

When the BC election comes up, I will link you guys to the LAST provincial election, where an independent blogger confirms that I was the closest. Until then feel free to imagine that I'm wrong about everything.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2011/07/today-in-slightly-more-interesting.html
Brad Wall
Bigger than Jesus.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Remember they traded a locally popular Liberal for a locally popular Conservative.

Provincially you have a locally popular Liberal running against some guy.

You could shave 5-10% off the riding due to demographics (IE jewish voters and etc) but that needs to come off the calculated result. IE if you think it's 55L-40P then it's actually 50L-45P etc

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

For the first time ever, Newfoundland is one of the rich provinces. They switched a few years back, but this has had a major impact. Just as Cape Breton once did well for the NDP until they all went poor, the economic changes in Newfoundland will have repercussions on politics.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Saint John and Moncton both had for a while big-name local Tories, but both would default Liberal. Fredericton on the other hand defaults Conservative.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've been curious about the Yukon for a bit. The Greens could pull off a seat, but, maybe not. The Liberals do indeed seem to be in big trouble. Polling is hard in a place with 30K people, but the last poll showed the Liberals in 3rd. When a date is set, please let us know!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Consensus fails because you cant pick your Premier. If they had a direct vote for that office, then it would work.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

God I hope so. Hudak is the only dangerous politician out there.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

When I ran, we ran a full slate.

That is, we did everything we could to do so. But not enough people wanted to run, and we did not.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

NDP only nominated 14 out 27
Greens 22 and the new Island Party nominated 12. I dont know anything about them.

The NDP ran 15 candidates in 2007 and 24 when Teddy ran for them in 2003. Last time they ran a full slate was in 2000.

http://www.electionspei.ca/provincial/candidates/index.php - here are all the candidates, can anyone comment on the any of the NDP candidates having a shot? Some are saying, based on the federal results, that the NDP could (could) be competative in three Charlottetown ridings?

Jane Dunphy is very competent. Edith Perry is very dedicated. James Rodd has good leadership qualities. Kat Murphy has her heart in the right place. Jacquie Robichaud is fair. Paulette Halupa is on the left of the party.

I knew all of them personally when I sat on the PEI NDP Executive. Sadly, none of them has any chance unless the polls radically change.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The NDP's support is concentrated in St.John's. On 30% they could take every riding in the city and not a single one outside of it.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Canada/NL/1279609329/ID=13182117

The Liberals themselves admit they are focused on a rural-focused strategy. They also had a HELL of a time trying to find candidates to fill all the St. John's ridings, with one, debating quitting on twitter, during the debate.

I am going to build an "ElectoMatic" for Newfoundland based on the assumption that the Liberals are going to lose an entire half of their vote in St. John's to the NDP.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

According to my numbers, the NDP will win 5:
Signal Hill (solid)
St. John's Centre
St. John's East
Burin-Placentia (solid)
Labrador West (solid)

and the Liberals, 4:
Cartwright (solid)
Burgeo (solid)
The Isles of Notre Dame (solid)
Port de Grave (solid)

The NDP is an additional threat in 4:
Conception Bay
St. John's North
St. John's South
and Virginia Waters, the Premier's own riding

The Liberals are an additional threat in 4:
Bellevue
Bay Islands
Humber Valley
Torngat Mountains

The Liberals, however, are a "closer threat" than the NDP in these ridings, and the NDP may not be able to win all the ones I've outlined if they are not as strong as some polls suggest they are.

PC 31-39-41
NDP 3-5-9
Lib 4-4-8

Worst-Projected-Best


Conclusion:
sh*t. The Liberals are so weak elsewhere, but so strong in so few ridings, they could beat the NDP in seat count even if the NDP managed double the popular vote of the Liberals.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Uh, I forgot. The one the NDP did better in, compared to the PC's, last time.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Yes, so East.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Actually the NDP vote is terrible. I really had to work the numbers to make the NDP win seats. We might see one of those dreaded FPTP elections where one party (the NDP) racks up a huge number of "close seconds"

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Ok, here's my Manitoba prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/manitoba-election-2011-prediction.html

Tory majority still possible, but not likely.

You have my endorsement. I've done my own projection earlier this morning and you are showing the results I got - except I think the Grits might lose their seat.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Other elections... A new NFLD poll!

MQO Poll:
PC: 54 (+1)
NDP: 33 (+4 nice)
LIB: 13 (-5 ouch)

LEADER - KD: 62 LM 27 KA: 11.
Who won debate? KD 36 LM 22. KA 6 Sample 464 +/-4.6%

Don't have a link since i saw it tweeted on CBC

This is getting closer to the math I used to make my NL projection.