2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

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The NDP took 35% in Essex federally. It could be very winnable if the Liberals make some effort to hold the seat and its more of a three way split.

I think anything is possible, but considering the Liberals are much stronger provincially in Southwestern Ontario than their federal counterparts, it would tend to think a Tory win is more likely than an NDP one and also I still think the Liberals could hold it provincially. 

Though it may also depend on an "at whose expense" question re Liberal provincial strength.  And counteracting the "Liberal incumbent advantage" factor is that provincially, unlike federally, the Tories *don't* have incumbent advantage.  (Which may make for interesting speculation as to what might have happened in Essex federally had Jeff Watson *not* run again.)  All in all, depending on who's running, we may be facing the situation where a provincial Natyshak is actually the highest-profile candidate running, and taken seriously for that fact.

Also remember that former MPP/Lakeshore mayor Pat Hayes ran quite viably against Crozier in '03 (to the point where Crozier lost more share than any incumbent Liberal that year).  That wouldn't have happened had Windsor-Essex not already had such a strong NDP tradition.

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If it held up, would 26% be a record low for the provincial Liberals?  Even in the Big Blue Machine years, it seems, at worst they never really went much below 30%...

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I guess so... but the dynamics have been different since Rae's election of 1990. After that, the NDP has had trouble winning the seats they did in the 1970s and 1980s, which has made minority governments an unlikely scenario.

But on the NDP's behalf (though it's still early to tell), the dynamics may be different again since this spring's federal election.

And even though it seems unlikely that the Liberal-vs-NDP paradigm will shift so drastically provincially as it did federally--my feeling is that there may be as many as half of Ontario's existing seats that, to use US terminology, can be classified as "tossup" or leaning in a non-incumbent direction.  And the sweeping bulk of those are, of course, Liberal.

The trouble, in the end, is that too much of the Ontario Liberal base is founded upon "not Harris/not Rae" quicksand which has been taken for granted for too long.  Thus, don't be surprised if a notional ElectoMatic 36 Liberal seats turns out to be half that--on whose behalf is another question entirely...

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And also consider that the 2011 federal Grit number was non-incumbent--had the byelection not happened and Maurizio Bevilacqua run again, it might have been considerably higher (even if, perhaps, not enough for him to win).

As for Sorbara--will he run again?  After all, he stepped aside from the finance ministry for "personal reasons" which almost seemed a prelude to retirement.  (And of course, if he's gone, the odds for a Liberal hold go down as well.)

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Horwath isn't Layton and the OLP's machinery is in much better condition than the LPC's, but I wouldn't rule out a Dipper opposition either.

Or even a Nova Scotia-1998esque 3-way?

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According to a Polara poll, the Liberals are leading 48-30 in Eglinton-Lawrence: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1035889--colle-holding-his-own-against-star-tory-candidate-poll-shows?bn=1

My projection had the seat as a tie, and 308 has the Tories with a massive lead there.

This will be interesting if true, but is quite hard to believe. I stand by the fact that this race will be much closer than that.

Win or lose, I *can* see Colle going up in the 416-Liberal pecking order relative to '07; back then, he was tarred by ethics murmurs (which seem to be behind him now) and probably also took his safety for granted, with active 416 anti-Tory Liberal efforts concentrated more upon beating back John Tory in Don Valley West, and maybe to a lesser extent David Shiner in Willowdale.

Perhaps Colle vs Rossi is the new Wynne vs Tory.

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And remember that's a generic NDP number, i.e. unrelated to any current candidate (they used the previous election's NDP/Green candidate names as prompts)

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As we get close to election day you should see less variability between pollsters.  Lets remember up until the final week, Nanos showed the NDP much lower than other pollsters, but by the final week, the numbers matched others.  When people are less firm in their intentions, methodology matters, but as people become firmer in their intentions things average out.  And for our NDP friends feeling depressed, I should note that Nanos had the NDP as low as 8% in Ontario at one point during the federal election, so things can change.  Likewise in 2008, they had the Tories at only 26% one week before the election while their final results put them at 39% in Ontario.

And another thing I noticed, if I read correctly: Nanos hasn't placed the ONDP over 20% in *years*.

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John Crosbie's riding also included much of the souther part of Avalon which the Tories still do well in.  Also the Tories did win the two St. John's seats in 2004 and 2006 under Harper, but I agree that was more out of tradition than any real support for the federal Tories.  As for Moncton and Saint John, Moncton seems possible, but Saint John might be more difficult since the Tories got almost 50% and I don't think there are a whole lot of Tory-NDP switchers in New Brunswick.  The most likely way for them to win it is hope the Liberals recover somewhat and all their gains come at the expense of the Tories and pick up a few marginal votes thus a three way split.

Well...Saint John is an interesting case.  Remember that Elsie Wayne won in 1993 more out of larger-than-life personal popularity and schism in the Liberal camp (the 1988 Grit candidate ran as an independent); her incumbency probably also artificially suppressed the NDP during the federal Alexa years.  Otherwise, relative to other so-called Tory strongholds in New Brunswick, Saint John actually leans "red"; IOW it's it's not a "Confederation of Regions" Toryism.  That the Tories fared better this year in Saint John than Moncton has plenty to do with incumbency, not to mention the lack of Moncton/Dieppe's Franco-Acadian demo--but imagine if it were an open seat and Elizabeth Weir was running this year, it'd probably have been Jack Harris II.  (Keeping in mind, too, that Jack Harris's seat saw IIRC the fourth strongest PC result in 1993.)

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I really wonder about Newfoundland, since it's a place that can be prone to breakneck swings.  Like, if the NDP sustains a certain momentum with a few select "star candidates", even a 70%+ PC seat in the Avalon doesn't necessarily have "incumbent hold" etched in stone...

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There's no way he stays as leader if the inevitable defeat is anywhere near that bad.

Though given how urban-vs-rural polarized the electorate is compared to 1982, he could *still* win more seats now compared to then...

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I doubt they will win the Premiers seat, its happened but generally its not a common thing. Even if the party loses government premiers hold their seats (i know of Peterson only who lost his in 1990 in Ontario)

Bourassa lost his seat in '76.  He *also* lost his seat in 1985, despite winning the general election (as did Don Getty in Alberta a few years later)

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Yes, Virginia Waters is in St. John's.

Substitute "St. Nicholas" for "St. John's", and that sentence sounds like Christmas;-)

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Sorta like: the next Nancy Betkowski.

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And the splendidly named "Bush Dumville" was reelected.

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How well would the NDP have done in places like Steinbach and Morden-Winkler back in the 1970s?

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The only real "record" broken for the NDP was in Newfoundland, and even there, they underperformed expectations.

Or rather, the Liberals overperformed expectations, at least when it comes to seat numbers.

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So does NDP ever have a shot at winning the plurality in the federal election?

Not unless Brad Wall murders a baby.

Not that there isn't right-of-centre precedent in Sask (cf. Colin Thatcher)

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First Nations?

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once the rebuilding starts, the main rural/small city targets will be obvious... Cute Knife-Turtleford and Meadow Lake in the NW... light green south of Athabasca. As well as both PA ridings and MJ Wakamow.

How about Yorkton?

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One reason why they did (relatively) well there federally was because the Tories ran (bizarrely) a paper candidate in a rock solid seat. Though wasn't Leithbridge always one of the weaker areas for Reform/CA? in non-metropolitan Alberta?

If Lethbridge proper is weaker, it's by default of its being mini-metropolitanish in its own right.

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If that's meant to be a projection map, remember that things in Delta are tossed off kilter by (a) an independent incumbent, and (b) it being the likely(?) seat for John Cummins...