2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[canadian1]

The SaskParty has a horrible record, they had 2 of the 4 year in deficit

Against the background of the current Canadian economic situation, I don't see how this could ever be considered a "horrible record". I'm not a fan of the Saskatchewan Party's policies, but there's no denying that the last 4 years have been a success story for Saskatchewan's economy. After years of terrible population losses, people are moving there in droves for jobs (in the booming natural resource sector).

2) the SP is just evil and want to obliterate the NDP ala 82.

How is this "evil"? It's essentially the long-term goal of every single political party in the world to eliminate their opposition. The province seems to be turning its back on the party anyway (viz. the federal election results, where the NDP even lost most of the Saskatoon polls that they used to win handily).

[canadian1]

Teddy, if that's meant to be a projection map, how did you derive the riding-level results? The overall picture strikes me as accurate, but some of the riding calls are questionable to me. (Sorry, but I can't quote your post with its photo-- too few posts to include a link).

• Peace River South, in my judgment, will likely be one of the first Conservative pickups. It's consistently gone for the most conservative "mainstream party" on the ballot (including the SoCreds in 1991 and Reform BC in 1996). The Tories didn't run a candidate there last time, but I'd be shocked if they didn't make a serious play for the riding next year. Going by last election's results seems foolish given the lack of a past candidate. It did vote 59% against the HST in the referendum, while Peace River North just barely squeaked past 50% on that score. I have my doubts that Blair Lekstrom's return to Christy Clark's cabinet has helped him or the party amongst the riding's voters-- this is, after all, the part of the province that, logically, ought to belong to Alberta.
• Port Coquitlam is a stronghold for Dipper Mike Farnworth, whose moderate profile helps him in the suburbs. I haven't heard anything to the effect that his unsuccessful leadership run has damaged him in the riding, nor have I seen anything suggesting that he's on the cusp of retirement. Barring an NDP meltdown in the polls, it's hard to see him losing his seat, especially to a BCL candidate. Bear in mind that he even managed to break 30% of the vote as a sitting cabinet minister in the NDP nuclear winter of 2001. By contrast, I'd assess neighbouring Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows as much harder for the NDP to hold-- they barely won it last time, and incumbent Michael Sather is stepping down. Given the current political environment, I have to agree with you that the odds favour an NDP hold, but it's much tighter than PoCo for the party.
• I don't know on what grounds you've prognosticated that the Liberals will lose Surrey-Tynehead, yet gain neighbouring Fleetwood. The loss of Tynehead seems possible, if not probable, but why would the Liberals gain Fleetwood from rather high-profile NDP incumbent Jagrup Brar? Politics is sometimes unpredictable in Surrey, but it's worth mentioning that Adrian Dix appears to have the strong political backing of many powerful East Asian community figures in Surrey. This prediction appears questionable to me.
• I question the NDP prediction in Cariboo North. Dipper-cum-Independent Bob Simpson seems likely to run again from what I've heard, and he'll eat into the NDP's very slim margin from last time. On balance, I might be inclined to give this prediction to the Conservatives, unless, as I've heard mentioned, the NDP decline to run a candidate in the riding in the hopes that Simpson wins re-election and can be lured back into the caucus with the promise of a cabinet post-- this would beef up their rural representation.
• Finally, a word about previous comments that John Cummins will likely run in Delta South. The problem with that scenario is that he and Independent incumbent Vicki Huntington would then be competing for the same pool of votes, leading to a possible BCL win. I wonder if Cummins might then decide to run in Delta North against idiosyncratic NDP incumbent Guy Gentner. I think that might,in fact, increase his chances of victory-- Vicki Huntington seems to me a much more appealing political personality than the aging, somewhat curmudgeonly John Cummins. Or, perhaps, Cummins could choose Richmond East (which he used to represent federally). The HST referendum results from all three Richmond ridings suggested deep unhappiness with the city's longstanding BC Liberal hegemony. The wrinkle in that plan is Linda Reid, who's represented the riding for over 20 years. With that in mind, Cummins may wind up in Richmond-Steveston, parts of which he used to represent federally. John Yap seems much less well-established that Reid. Lots of options for Cummins, each of which shakes out differently for the other parties.

All in all, BC 2013 looks to be the most interesting provincial election in Canada since Quebec 2007.

[canadian1]

-> canadian1, i agree with Teddy that Peace River South will probably, maybe stay Liberal based solely on its MLA Lekstrom... he was an indie, and is now back in the Liberal caucus but he should have stay far away from them or joined the Conservatives. It could have been a Bob Simpson like situation. Lekstrom is rather conservative so that will help him win but it all depends on if he runs (likely) and who the Conservative nominate.

Thanks for your comments! I'm still not convinced that Lekstrom can carry the Libs to victory. I agree with you that he shouldn't have returned to Christy Clark's caucus, and that's why I think he's so vulnerable. Had he stayed an indie or joined the Tories, I'm sure he would have won, but I fear that returning to the Liberal party has probably made him look greedy and insensitive to local concerns at a time when voter anger is running high. If the Conservatives nominate a weak candidate, Lekstrom can definitely win, but I doubt they will nominate someone second-rate for such a winnable seat.

I also agree that taking a look at 1991 is important in this context, but I would say that those seats won by the SoCreds that year might indicate where the Tories will break through first. To that end, I'm skeptical that the Grits will retain as many seats as Teddy predicts in the Fraser Valley, a "bible belt" area where John Cummins's personal qualities, as well as his party brand, should help him win more than just a few seats. I would say Abbotsford West is fairly likely to stay Liberal on the personal appeal of Mike de Jong, whereas the other two Abbotsford ridings are better takeaways for the Tories.

On the other hand, a Conservative sweep of the Okanagan strikes me as unlikely. In particular, George Abbott, if he seeks re-election in Shuswap, should win handily. His wealth of personal popularity was made clear by his very strong showing in the riding when he ran for party leader-- far stronger than any other candidate in their own seat. I also think that one of the three constituencies including parts of Kelowna will most likely stay with the Liberals, but I couldn't tell you which one is the most likely (I just have a hunch on this score). I also wouldn't rule out the NDP in Boundary-Similkameen, which they've held before and came close to winning last time. That's a riding that will depend on the Tory candidate, as another run by Joe Cardoso would very much help his party.

I could keep quibbling like this, but I think Teddy's map is generally accurate. As the election draws near, candidate nominations will increase in frequency, and this sort of prediction exercise will get easier.