2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Foucaulf]

The BC Conservatives are a non-issue. What is an issue is the demographic which both that party and the BC Liberals wish to attract; voters who were enraged over the HST. With no electoral action over the tax rise since the referendum (which was tremendously successful), the Liberals will not risk being portrayed as the anti-populist party. A swing in the Interior or in the Fraser Valley towards the NDP would be significant enough to give the left a majority.

The Clark government knows the difficulty of renegotiating the HST. If the tax is here to stay, the Liberals have to keep swing voters from jumping ship with policy that would lessen the burden, such as tax cuts.

The NDP leftward shift is insignificant too. Adrian Dix, a former minister in the Glen Clark government of 1996-2000 is suffering "Red Ed" syndrome. But the demographics of the province has shifted so much that he has the chance to impress the majority of voters who have no clue about him.

[Foucaulf]

In the case of the Fraser Valley, it is pretty solidly Conservative so I cannot see the BC Liberals losing here.  They won by pretty large margins.  As for the Interior, you are right about Kamloops, Prince George, and the Kootenays, but the Okanagan Valley and Peace River Country is unlikely to go NDP.

All true - that post was rushed out, meaning I overgeneralized.

My point was that the HST is anathema to a majority of the BC Liberal electorate. This does not include only the Interior, but also the volatile immigrant base. The middle class sees it as a tax grab, while the rich sees it as a needless block on their spending. The NDP has a more solid base than the Liberals, and the party cannot let their guard down one moment. This is the strategy behind their recent wave of populist policy (spread out over many years, of course).

I also disagree that BC has swung to the left. 

This is also true. I'm fully aware people will vote for the provincial NDP in protest, which is why I disagreed with:

With the possible emergence of the BC Conservatives, they seem to be pushing the NDP further to the left... will it work?

With the exception of the 2001 election, the NDP has always had a strong opposition but they only win when the pro free enterprise vote is divided.

Think you're exaggerating the trend. The Liberal-NDP system was only established in the nineties, and it's a stretch to call the Socreds "free enterprise" and not the modern NDP. And I constantly state that the influx of immigrants has changed BC politics completely.

As for the Red Ed syndrome...

To clarify, I meant by that how Ed Milliband, being to the left of his brother David, has been painted as far-left by the right. That talking point is being used on Dix too, and certainly there are urban lefties who think the NDP could have had a shot of winning if Mike Farnworth were picked as leader instead.

There's a poll out there, though, showing that 59% of those polled "are either neutral or have yet to form an opinion of Dix". Given how lethargic the past two campaigns were, I think the NDP would do well to shock and awe.

[Foucaulf]

There's no point debating about qualitative v. quantitative when the quantitative model in question is very raw. At least Threehundredeight tries to apply meaning onto its arbitrary modifiers; Teddy reduces everything to a proportional increase and calls it a day. A serious mathematical model would involve regression analyses, error calculation and an actual distribution. If you're going to make one-off predictions, the difference between a holistic assessment and a weak model is negligible.

After witnessing previous elections (New Brunswick, Federal), I'm not sure if any projector's model can function properly in an election with destabilizing swings. The problem is that future Canadian elections will be filled with them (Ontario, Quebec, BC, Alberta...)

[Foucaulf]

BC election talk! I should have joined in earlier.

The Liberal collapse was all but inevitable after the HST referendum. People would leave the party had the vote failed, and they are leaving the party even though the vote succeeded because of a newfound political freedom. The real beneficiary is the NDP, who doesn't need to be distracted by such an issue anymore.

Cummins is aiming to win two by-elections in Port Moody-Coquitlam and Chilliwack-Hope. So far the party has been his one-man outfit, like Van der Zalm's FightHST organization. Of course more interesting is what happens if they don't win. If they cannot win Chilliwack-Hope - the Fraser Valley rural riding that's supposed to be the angriest ones - then the momentum gets blown away.

At this point the Cons are advocating some wacky, Toronto Sun-level stuff, but they are being supported because they are seen as crusaders against the cronyism of the Liberals - also similar to Van der Zalm. They should've done what the CAQ is doing and wait for the general election, not fielding by-elections but maintaining a media presence.

On the NDP side the result is near-miraculous: the Liberal attack on Dix completely backfired and now he has an even higher approval rating than Clark. I think I predicted this, but I couldn't predict how weak a premier Clark would become after HST. That supposed charisma of hers has vanished under pressure.