2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[lilTommy]

Genco is running as a PC against Sorbara in Vaughan per the Star . 308 marks that as safe Liberal. A question to Ontarians: is it Sorbara's personal popularity that keeps his seat safe? Especially given Fantino's federal landslide in May.

Also, 308 projects a Dipper victory in Manitoba, 33-22-3 despite losing the popular vote 44-40.

The last poll i saw was a dead even tie 44-44 but with the NDP at 50% in Winnipeg... that means generally the NDP should be the government... the Liberals will be lucky to hold on to River Heights and redistribution has killed Inkster. Plus the NDP was seen (from what i can see?) as having managed the recent flooding quite well overall.

Something interesting to snack on, some new democrats are saying the NDP SHOULD lose, in order to stave off a sask result... not keen with that idea but i see their points

[lilTommy]

And also consider that the 2011 federal Grit number was non-incumbent--had the byelection not happened and Maurizio Bevilacqua run again, it might have been considerably higher (even if, perhaps, not enough for him to win).

As for Sorbara--will he run again?  After all, he stepped aside from the finance ministry for "personal reasons" which almost seemed a prelude to retirement.  (And of course, if he's gone, the odds for a Liberal hold go down as well.)

Sorbara is running again, it was in the paper today, should be nominated on the 18th (aug).

[lilTommy]

No ones talking about the Yukon election this october... ok perhaps because there are less than 50,000 people there BUT still i find the only territory to use parties quiet interesting... because "parties" seem to be interchangeable... one retiring member was elected as a Yukon Party MLA, then became independent... next election became a NDPer, then indepedent again. The former premier Fentie was a NDP'r then a YP. The liberals have nominated a former NDP cabinet minister.... it goes on Plus here you CAN meet everyone in your riding, since there so small margins and races can be won/lost by a handful of votes.

first poll of the summer under a new YP leader:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2011/08/10/yukon-elex-datapath-poll.html

YP - 40% up from 22% in July 2010
NDP - 35% up from 26%
Lib - 15% down (badly) from 39%

[lilTommy]

If i remember from the last set of maps, the Greens did well in Whitehorse (11 of the 19 seats are in the city) but i don't think they scored that well... they have only one candidate nominated. Elizabeth Hanson seems to be doing a great job, one of the #1 issues is housing, which the NDP is just killing the YP on. I also think the NDP might get some sympathy votes (as bad as this sounds) esp. in Mount Lorne-Southern Lakes, a new Riding but one where the recent NDP MLA died in a car crash... add that to the last NDP leader who died of cancer awhile back...

The NDP was 4th in 2008 too from what i remember, although i think he polled better this election, by about 5 points... but so did the Greens by about 5 points too. Still not great for a seat held by a former NDP leader.

[lilTommy]

The Greens won 4 polls in the Yukon:



(MaxQue's map)

2 of them are in Whitehorse Centre, which is the seat of the NDP leader.

Thanks! ok, so the Liberals pretty much were dominant in Whitehorse proper... Also that NDP and Green poll south of Whitehorse are in the Mount Lorne-Southern Lakes riding i mentioned.
Its still early, but with those Numbers i can easily see the NDP replace the Libs as opposition... or even win outright, the NDP seem to be building a good list of candidates based on their site

[lilTommy]

Ok, some Newfoundland chatter now...

http://cra.ca/support-for-nl-progressive-conservatives-decreases/
last poll in June 2011:
PC - 57%
Lib - 22%
NDP - 20%

Now the only prediction i've seen was 308... which puts the parties at:
Seats
PC - 38
NDP - 6
Lib - 5

BUT, Liberal leader Yvonne Jones is out, she has been suffering from cancer for awhile (seems to be a huge problem with leaders these days), she probably would have resigned earlier than now but things didn't happen that way. For all intents the Liberals are a mess, this leadership race could be a blessing (more media coverage thats mildly positive) or hurt them come election time (inexperience, and thrown in the fire) the NDP team seems to be coming together really well by the looks of it... about 21 candidates in place including some well known local names (remember Keith Coombs who won, the lost in a recount the mayoralty of Paradise as a 19yr old, hes been nominated).

[lilTommy]

Wait, are you sure about Coombs? It looks like he was the campaign manager for Loyola Sullivan's conservative candidacy in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

My bad... KURTIS, i've always been bad with names

the NDP has is up on their site? If he was working for the tory's, thats a pretty big coup... and the NDP can only grow off the Tories really.
http://www.nl.ndp.ca/nr081111CoombsMPN

under the election section, looks like a good mash of candidates... esp (but no surprise in St John's), they probably have targeted SJ Centre and ST East (the candidates look strong, and spill over from Quidi Vidi)
The globe has an articule today... its all Dunderhils (sp) to lose, and she's no Williams. A drop from 73% to 57% is pretty massive, but 57% is still huge

[lilTommy]

Yikes... well we all know how partisan some comments can be

Tory to NDP is a big jump ideologically to me, but hey it cause media coverage eh

Also. on the CBC was a list of 7 running for the Liberal leadership, anyone know any of them?

[lilTommy]

Tory to NDP is a big jump ideologically 

Not in Newfoundland.

Can you fill me in as to why?
... Sounds like the same is true for the Yukon, but i think thats a different story.

[lilTommy]

Nanos with sh*tty NDP numbers again

(Ontario)

PC: 42%
Lib: 38%
NDP: 16% (!)
Grn: 3%

That's a drop of 7% from other pollsters for the NDP.

Meanwhile in NL, the provincial Liberal party selected a new leader after Yvonne Jones stepped down due to cancer. They selected former MHA Kevin Aylward who will be running in St. George's-Stephenville East.

It was a Nanos poll, i remember hearing chatter before about them? t

About the NL grits, well blimmy! that was quick, but they did need to resolve that quick to be ready for Oct.

Also, i'm shocked that the religion is still a deciding factor in parties?

[lilTommy]

Looks like Nanos was off, again.
new Angus-Reid poll:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1047068--provincial-election-to-be-a-tight-3-way-race-poll-suggests?bn=1#.Tl4joc56u3E.facebook

Tories - 38
Liberals - 31
NDP - 24
Green - 6

the election hasn't even started but i haven't seen the Dippers above 24%, could this be the Plateau for the NDP?

[lilTommy]

Looks like Nanos was off, again.
new Angus-Reid poll:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1047068--provincial-election-to-be-a-tight-3-way-race-poll-suggests?bn=1#.Tl4joc56u3E.facebook

Tories - 38
Liberals - 31
NDP - 24
Green - 6

the election hasn't even started but i haven't seen the Dippers above 24%, could this be the Plateau for the NDP?

Phew. For a moment there, I thought that was a federal poll.

Sorry didn't mean to scare you there

Also the NDP has its first add up http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnLNpz3dw_I&feature=player_embedded

anyone else see the exact same format as the federal from the campaign launch? its good to see were sticking with the good clean positive campaign.. plus the site FINALLY has candidates listed... i'm a huge fan of the pictures as i'm a visual learner
http://ontariondp.com/en/candidates

[lilTommy]

City of Toronto (416) is also shaping as a three way race - when you have Liberals at 36% and NDP and Tories at 38% each - it smells to me like a three way split in the seat count because of the way the Liberal vote is spread evenly across the city.

...Its actually 28% for the Tories and the NDP, but i think your point still stands
with these numbers, and the NDP candidates i see... Davenport and York South-Weston are sure to fall to the NDP. I don't think we can count out Scar Rouge River or South West since they are held federally, they are competative and i'd give the NDP a fighting chance. This puts Tor Centre in the mix too but that i feel is more of a long shot

[lilTommy]

Scarborough SW is a possibility, probably not in SRR.

I would have put it in the reverse. I feel that Neethan (SRR candidate) has much more exposure, and is much more well known in the community then Bruce Budd is in SSW. The only thing working against him is that there is a liberal incumbent.
In both cases be sure to see Rathika and Dan on the campaign trails with them.

[lilTommy]

... also, its pretty unfortunate but the poor rarely vote in large numbers. But it will be during the school year and YorkU tends (as we saw in May) to vote NDP, so that will help.
I would love to see York West fall but it would take a huge event to push it to the NDP... but definelty a moderate target. If ONDP can utilze Perruzza's resources and really target their decided voters, HST issues with the working poor... possibly some spill over enthusiasm from York South-Weston.
Toronto Centre has that same issue, Regent/Moss park dosen't vote in the numbers like Rosedale does.
NDP foot soldiers are going to have a big task ahead for them.

[lilTommy]

The election season has just started up now... MAN, YK & ON are already itching to get started and the CBC now has dedicated pages to each (even NWT which is a unique system that dosen't use political parties, and is more consensus based)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/

I have to say the YukonNDP website, has improved dramatically (i've been following nominations in all provinces and was checking in regularly), their site is the BEST of all three parties... plus there was a make-me-smile moment in a articule in Yukon News..

"But, while Mitchell’s (LIB leader) speech moved a crowd of more than 50 Liberal stalwarts to a half-hearted standing ovation, Hanson’s(NDP Leader) address was followed by whoops, cheers and chanting from a crowd nearly twice as big.
The Dippers’ party also featured dancing, thanks to music by Kevin Barr, their candidate for Southern Lakes and Mount Lorne. And they had better food, with hummus, tzatziki and spicy chicken thighs served up by Kebabery owner Louis Gagnon, who’s seeking the party’s nomination in Whitehorse West.
Whether being able to throw a better party translates into a more successful election campaign remains to be seen."

[lilTommy]

Another NFLD Poll:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/09/06/nl-cra-poll-906.html

                     May
Tories: 54% (57%)
NDP: 24% (20%)
Liberal: 22% (22%)

Good news for the NDP, and those from NFLD can maybe add more detail... 50+% still means a majority, and if this (NDP) number is focused on the Avalon-St. John's could this mean more seats? Another potenial for history if the NDP unseats the Libs at opposition.

[lilTommy]

I suspect PEI will be boring... And yes, i think the results wont be so "Liberal" in NFLD

http://www.leaderpost.com/health/Sask+Party+personal+attack+trumps+policy/5368410/story.html

in Saskatchewan, looks like it might be a more interesting fight... Personality (empty policy)SASK party vs Policy (empty personality?) NDP... i'm hoping it is more of a fight.

[lilTommy]

Snooze i'm guess equals competative, policy based campaigns? Manitoba will be exciting as its expected to be a tight race... but i agree its already looking like the NDP is doing quite well and the Tories just can't seem to make anything work. Its still really early though.

Ontario is a fight, and all three parties are coming out of the gate ready! the Liberals seem to be playing the dirtiest with the NDP (see Horwath at Crowes office, reporter were accosted by a Grit staffer desperate to show them a rediculous video of the NDP van).

We also forget (since there are no parties) the NWT has elections... what are peoples thoughts on the concensus gov't vs the party government (the Yukon uses the southern model and Nunavut uses concensuc)

[lilTommy]

GAH! well that's a terrible number... Still no election yet, and my optimism is still in place that the NDP wont do that bad... until the leaders debate that is (see link previously about a policy driven campaign)
http://www.leaderpost.com/news/Poll+indicates+Sask+Party+lead+fall+vote+nears/5373651/story.html ... The NDP still leads in one region!! OK its the North and they have like what 2 ridings?

based on the story, Lingenfelter is one of the reasons with a 55% dissatisfaction. I'd have gone with Meili (or even Higgins), Lingy was probably their worst choice for leader, but hey that time is long gone. My only hope is that the NDP can lick their wounds and Lingy resigns (I'm still utterly disappointed that Meili wont run this election, has he been that disheartened by the leadership loss?)

Well remember Quebec in May?, people might love Brad and just vote SaskParty not giving a hoot about who the local candidate is.

[lilTommy]

Nomination day in Ontario was yesterday and today's is PEI. Im looking forward to the final list.  Wikipedia only lists 2 NDP candidates in all of PEI, so I'm interested to see how many there will be.

James Rodd  SAID they were going to run a full slate... lets see if that happens. I honestly feel the momentum, and focus by the party in the maritimes will be in winning ground in NFLD. Last time i looked they had filled 31 of the 48 ridings.

[lilTommy]

NDP only nominated 14 out 27
Greens 22 and the new Island Party nominated 12. I dont know anything about them.

The NDP ran 15 candidates in 2007 and 24 when Teddy ran for them in 2003. Last time they ran a full slate was in 2000.

http://www.electionspei.ca/provincial/candidates/index.php - here are all the candidates, can anyone comment on the any of the NDP candidates having a shot? Some are saying, based on the federal results, that the NDP could (could) be competative in three Charlottetown ridings?

[lilTommy]

New poll out of Newfoundland:

MQO Research poll: PC: 53% NDP: 29% LIB: 18%. Leaders: KD: 64% LM: 22% KA: 14% Margin: +/-4.9% Sample: 413 Date: 09/16-09/18

To put things in perspective - in the last election the NDP took 6% of the vote and didn't even have a full slate of candidates. If those votes are at all concentrated in St. John's (as I suspect they are) - the NDP could easily go from 1 seats to 8 or 9!

Lets not forget, that the NDP, especially with those numbers could win back Labrador West and maybe take Burin-Placentia West (they were very very close last time). Worse for the liberals is that they might be shut out completely this time which would be a disaster for a province with famous Liberals premiers like Smallwood and Tobin.

[lilTommy]

Also, this is the first election where the NDP is being led by Greg Selinger who is no Gary Doer... BUT appears that Manitobans are warming up to him, hes seen as very compentent and trusted with the purse. 301 actually predicted they would win 39 seats! I think that might be optimistic but if things turn out the way that first poll predicts i don't see why the NDP wont pick up Winnipeg seats... Tyndall Park (fight with the Liberals) and River East (was incredibly close last time). But i think the NDP missed an opportunity to refresh itself by running more newer faces (ok, this still peeves me off that they nominated Jim Malloway in Elmwood but i digress).
I believe the bounce back up started after the flood, as Selinger was seen to have managed that disaster very well. And then the Jets came back and well that just more or less sealed it.

[lilTommy]

Liberals lost a candidate DURING the debate! ouch

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nlvotes2011/story/2011/09/28/nl-liberals-lose-candidate-328.html

I heard they had not filled their SJ's slate? the CBC had an articule but that was a couple days ago

I doubt they will win the Premiers seat, its happened but generally its not a common thing. Even if the party loses government premiers hold their seats (i know of Peterson only who lost his in 1990 in Ontario)