Hypothetical GOP 2012 Primary Results

[anvi]

Not exactly a TL, but I'll post prediction maps of the 2012 GOP primary on the basis of one assumption and one possible unfolding of the primary season for which we I will put up 9 maps.  

Assumption one is the following field of candidates.

Bachman
Cain
Daniels
Gingrich
Johnson
Paul
Pawlenty
Romney
Santorum

The 9 maps will correspond to the following dates in the primary calendar.  I know all these are not settled yet, but just assuming for now.  If anyone like Mr. Morden wants to make corrections to this prospective schedule before I post any predictions, feel free.

--Jan 31st, after IA, NH, SC and FL
--Feb. 7th, after ME, AL, CA, CN, DE, MN, NJ, NY, ND, VT, AK
--Feb. 28th after LA, WI, NV, AZ, MI, WA, WY
--Mar. 7th after MA, OH, OK, RI, TN, TX, UT, VA
--Mar. 31st after MO, HI, MS, CO, IL
--Apr. 30th after KS, MD, D.C., GA, PA
--May 6th after IN, NC, WV
--May 31st after ID, NE, OR, AR, KY
--June, after MT, NM, SD

You're all of course welcome to post your own maps.  Just want to play around with the scenario.

[NHI]

Blue: Romney
Green: Cain
Yellow: Bachman
Red: Johnson

[anvi]

The January, 2012 primaries and caucuses develop in two directions in the debates and ad wars.  The first is a contest among the candidates vying for the votes of the conservative base (Bachman, Cain, Gingrich, Pawlenty and Santorum), who emphasize setting America firmly back on the foundations of its values so it can meet the challenges of the future.  The second is an ever-more heated conversation about how to handle the perils of the country's fiscal future (waged between Daniels, Johnson, Paul and Romney).  The crossfire produces some topsy-turvy results at the beginning of the campaign season, which by the end of the month place some otherwise popular candidates futures into immediate peril.

In the Iowa Caucuses, Gov. Pawlenty edges out the field.  He has invested significant time and resources in the state, with polished campaign ads combining themes of an inspirational vision with religiously-toned holiday messages from his family.  In the crowded debates leading up to the vote, Pawlenty sounds more polished than Bachman and Cain, while managing to outshine a nervous Gingrich, and Santorum seems simply not to catch much enthusiasm.  The early excitement drowns out a slightly stiff Daniels and Romney.  Campaign strategists begin talking about the big midwest battle coming up between Pawlenty and Daniels, and wonder if the latter has the charisma to match the hype around his candidacy.    

In New Hampshire, the tone suddenly changes.  Romney has spent a great deal of money on an ad campaign in the state that serves him well in the polls, even though he seems vague in his public appearances.  In the final GOP debate leading up to the vote, a sharp Daniels goes on the offensive against Romney, citing his Massachusetts health care plan and noting how much unhindered Medicaid expansion costs the states, and asks whether Romney, despite his pro-business rhetoric, is really a big-government spender in disguise.  A seemingly unsuspecting Romney is flustered and claims that his expansion of health coverage in Massachusetts was a better state-based program than the ideas underlying the federal expansion of Medicare during the Bush administration that Daniels worked for.  But Daniels, because he unexpectedly took the initial offensive, outscores Romney in the punchout, ending it with the flourish that his governorship has brought better fiscal health to Indiana than Romney did to a comparatively tax-strapped Massachusetts, a line cheered by the voters of New Hampshire.  Daniels beats Romney by more than six points, and the Romney campaign is driven onto its heels.

Social issues raise their head once again in South Carolina.  This time, Romney gets predictably pounded on his previous support for abortion rights, and his recycled "I was not as quick in this judgement as you were but I am there now" defense holds no water.  Candidates like Pawlenty and Santorum pile on, sensing an opportunity to eliminate one of the "heavyweights" going into the campaign.  Even Daniels takes heat for his very limited pushback against Planned Parenthood funding in Indiana.  But a pivotal moment comes when Santorum levels a strong intimated attack against Gingrich for his previous infidelities, which the voters perceive as out-of-bounds.  Gingrich, more relaxed than in Iowa and hitting his rhetorical stride, outshines Pawlenty on issues of leadership vision and the motifs of American history and patriotism.  The vote count lasts late into the night, but Gingrich slips by with a narrow win.  Bachman and Cain drop out of the race; Bachman endorses Gingrich, but Cain withholds his favor until he has seen more from the candidates.  Paul is hoping for better results in Florida, and Johnson vows to hang on till Super Tuesday.

Florida shapes up to be a gargantuan standoff between Romney and Daniels.  Having lost his bid for an important early win in New Hampshire, Romney makes fiery and impassioned speeches across the state, slamming the Obama administration and vowing to support American business in creating jobs once again.  But, in this prime ground for a debate on Social Security, Daniels once again goes uncharacteristically but effectively on the offensive.  He attacks Romney's notion of transforming entitlement programs into privatized savings accounts, and argues that the country's entitlement programs can be shored up for the future by means testing and raising the retirement age.  Romney tries to counter by accusing Daniels of inconsistency, having initially shown support for the ill-fated Ryan budget plan of 2011 but now seemingly slowly moving away from it, and attempts once again to pin the Medicare Part D plan onto Daniels.  This counter falls flat.  Daniels argues that, using the right methods, the nation can safeguard seniors who are truly in need and the country's fiscal future at the same time.  The slugfest ends in a near-draw this time, but Daniels comes across as more poised and natural.  Florida voters respond, and hand Daniels another important and delegate-rich victory.

At the end of January, Daniels has come out with impressive victories in New Hampshire and Florida, while Pawlenty is still riding on his midwest chances after his Iowa Caucus win, and Gingrich is promising big gains on Super Tuesday.  Paul vows to fight on, but his disappointing showings so far leave his supporters with little hope.

But the press and political pundits, always playing up the most recent events, begin to talk of an air of inevitability shrouding the campaign of Indiana's governor.  A clearly wounded Romney looks forward to February, hoping for better results in Michigan and the friendlier west.

[anvi]

After winning the early February contest in Maine, the Romney campaign settles on a Super Tuesday strategy that would, if successful, enable him to counter the mounting Daniels wave.  He will attempt to win a few more battles in New England with several stops and heavy media buys, and will take a big stand in California on immigration.  Since Daniels is leading in the major eastern states, Romney will cede these without much of a fight, and then revert to his 2008 primary position of opposing comprehensive reform and attacking Daniels' "weak" response to police id bills in Indiana with a strong "enforcement" line.  Gingrich tries to challenge Daniels in New York, and Santorum puts all his remaining chips down on New Jersey.  Pawlenty takes a conservative tack, trying to hold the line in the midwest as tightly as he can, hoping to make it through to the contests later in the month.

In the early hours of the Super Tuesday evening, things go pretty much as expected.  Daniels wins the big prizes of New York and New Jersey along with Delaware, Romney brings home Connecticut and Vermont, while Gingrich, practically unopposed, picks up Alabama.  As the evening passes, Pawlenty secures easy triumphs in Minnesota and in the North Dakota caucuses.  A feverish atmosphere descends on the Romney campaign as the polls close in California.

The immigration debate between Romney and Daniels in California could hardly have been more intense. Romney has every good reason to pin high hopes on California.  His PAC has been contributing to California Republican campaigns for several years, and he has consistently led in state polling all throughout the primary campaign season.   The former Massachusetts governor hurled blistering criticism at Daniels for ultimately not supporting 2011 legislation in Indiana that would have empowered police officers to request documents verifying immigration status whenever they had suspicions, before pivoting back to his own well-worn English language immersion emphasis.  Daniels countered by scolding Romney on how much California's flagging economy needs the productive capacity and tax revenues of migrant workers who have long since been in the U.S. and who could be appropriately penalized and put on a path to citizenship.  He also castigates Romney for being on both sides of the issue, advocating through back channels for a deal on comprehensive immigration reform in 2010 but opposing it while on the campaign trail; "if he is elected president," Daniels jokes, "he'll be on so many sides of every issue that he'll make Obama look decisive."

As the votes are being counted in California, the campaign headquarters of Dr. Ron Paul erupt with joy as he is declared the winner in Alaska.  

At the end of the night, it becomes evident that Daniels didn't really have a chance; conservative voters in the north diluted his returns, and Romney's immigration gambit was enough to persuade voters in the south. For the moment, the Romney win in California saves his campaign.  

An invigorated Romney appears before supporters and declares bright days ahead for the race.  Daniels waxes presidential on the heels of his powerful east coast victories, and, while congratulating Romney on his California coup, reminds listeners that the United States is one nation, and will only flourish when all its people contribute to its future.  Santorum suspends his campaign but withholds an endorsement, saying how important it is for conservative principles to be preserved in the party, and that he hopes surviving candidates like Pawlenty and Gingrich will unambiguously represent them.  Johnson gracefully drops out of the race and endorses Daniels.

[anvi]

The national press is now ebullient that the GOP primary has turned into a murky but exciting horserace.  The remaining matchups in February do weed out two of the final five, setting the stage for a decisive March battle of titans.

Most of the candidates' attention is focused on Louisiana first, with each campaign having spent considerable time trying to woo the endorsement of Governor Jindal.  A day after Super Tuesday, Jindal announces that he will be throwing his support behind Mitch Daniels.  "He has proven," Jindal blares into the microphone with the Indiana contender at his side, "that he can lead a state through perilous times, and he has shown that he stands the best chance of taking back the White House in November!"  But the endorsement fails to win over TEA party supporters, and Paul, Gingrich and Romney vie for their votes.  In the end, Romney benefits from the somewhat feverish vote-splitting as a result of Paul's presence in the race, and comes away with a slightly surprising win.      

What had been shaping up to be an insignificant primary in Washington turns into a different story, namely a dogged fight for conservative favor.  Sentiment in the state has turned against Daniels after the California campaign, leaving Romney, Pawlenty and Gingrich to duke it out.  The former speaker and Minnesota governor try to sideline Romney with being a flip-flopper, but the TEA party movement in the state is more concerned with fiscal issues, and the debate turns into a contest of pledges regarding who will cut spending more.  Pawlenty, in a surprising resurgence, portrays himself as a more fiscally responsible and conservative governor than Romney or Daniels, as the voters turn a disparaging eye toward Gingrich's previous support of health insurance mandates and his ever-more negligible winning chances.  Pawlenty scores a narrow victory, and forges ahead, looking forward to the Wisconsin primary.  

The hopes for the continued viability of the Gingrich campaign are dashed.  He had hoped to win at least one of the two Feb. 11th events in what are thought to be conservative strongholds, but coming up short in both, with a dismal finish in Louisiana, convinces the former Georgia congressman and House speaker that he cannot continue.  He suspends his campaign, but withholds his pledge of support.  Paul's followers embolden him to keep going, hinting that the way the Republican primary is playing out may demonstrate a need for a strong Libertarian candidacy.

A week after these two contests, Romney's momentum and deep political roots in the state carry him to an easy victory in the Nevada caucuses.  Daniels, along with Pawlenty, all but skip the event entirely, and prepare for a Feb. 21st showdown in the embattled state of Wisconsin.

The Wisconsin primary puts education policy center-stage.  Romney is somewhat late to the game, but the he and Pawlenty, in a hurriedly organized television debate between the candidates, take turns slamming teacher's unions and praising governor Walker's "courageous" stand against them in the face of the political backlash.  His remaining opponents assail Romney on previous flip-flops between different stances on abolishing the Department of Education and supporting No Child Left Behind, casting doubts about whether Romney really knows what his education policy amounts to.  Daniels, searching for renewed momentum after a bumpy ride since Super Tuesday, for the first time attacks Pawlenty with a critique of his previous support for a longer federally mandated school year, and boasts that he was the first governor in the region to curtail collective bargaining rights for Indiana teachers, but without demonizing teachers unions.  Pawlenty has no effective counter, and the fateful contest is decided.  Daniels, back in stride, stakes a strong claim to superiority in the region with the victory.  Pawlenty remains doggedly determined to fight on, but his campaign donations experience a sharp downturn after the loss.

The month's two remaining contests in Michigan and Arizona pose a dilemma for the Daniels campaign.  Romney's strength in both states threaten to help the former Massachusetts governor pull into a delegate lead.  Needing to pick one of the two states for a fight, should they choose a border state after Daniels has already lost an immigration debate in California, or an economically ravaged state where his competitor's father was once governor?  Daniels' campaign team makes a fateful decision; they will not win either state's primary. but, betting on an eventual nomination victory, will take stances that they envision will help them in the general election.  During two stops in Arizona, Daniels stresses the need for stringent punishments for businesses that hire undocumented workers as well as the exigency for faster job creation, dodging further questions on immigration in the face of Romney's blusterous attacks.  Spending more time in the Detroit area and upper Michigan, Daniels praises governor Snyder's efforts to reform education and bring the state's budget woes under control, and points toward early successes in the Indiana voucher program and how it would help needy Michigan students gain access to opportunity.  Romney wins handily in Arizona, but very narrowly in Michigan, with Pawlenty a distant third.    

Sadly but eloquently, surrounded by his family, Pawlenty bows out of the race.  Thanking campaign staff and supporters for getting him so far, Pawlenty, in a surprise move, caps of his speech with an endorsement of Daniels.  "He is a bold, visionary, and courageous leader who has a consistent and expansive plan for America's future."  The bemused Romney campaign shrugs off the unexpected announcement and points to its dramatic February successes, emerging from February with a delegate lead after losing pitched battles in New Hampshire and Florida in January.  Daniels looks forwarded to a fierce battle in March, and predicts that the party should have a clear nominee a month from now.  Paul invites the frontrunners to a showdown over real Republican values in the upcoming Texas primary.

[anvi]

What was in its formative stages dubbed the "mini-Super Tuesday" of March 6th has now become "Super Tuesday, the Sequel."  Eight states are up for grabs, including the pivotal prizes of Ohio, Virginia and the biggest gem of all, Texas.  The major television debate preceding this crucial day is held on the campus of the University of Texas.  To no one's surprise, the debate is focused on energy.

Dr. Paul takes his characteristically strong and conspicuous stance.  Oil exploration, from drilling in ANWR to offshore, should not be limited, and Paul calls the Obama administration's assault on oil company profits a politically cynical attempt at limiting free enterprise and endangering America's endeavor for energy independence.  But, in the next breath, Paul adamantly opposes tax exemptions and subsidies for energy production, insisting that it is not the government's job to pick winners and losers in the open marketplace and stifle needed energy competition.  Romney also stresses the need for energy independence, and argues for a multi-pronged approach on research into alternative energy, oil refinement, drilling in ANWR and offshore drilling.  When Paul briskly counters by asking Romney what he thinks of subsidies for oil companies, Romney hedges by saying that, absent an across-the-board corporate tax rate cut, he would favor continuing existing subsidies to oil companies, without adding new ones, provided the money was reserved for continuing research on oil refinement, new energy and safe offshore drilling and cleanup procedures.  Daniels weighs in with his by now well-known unqualified support of "drill and frac," onshore, offshore, from Appalachia to ANWR.  Paul lunges at Daniels as well on the question of whether oil company subsidies should continue.  Daniel's counters: "I think that a wholesale restructuring of our tax system is what is in order, Congressman, but however we rework it, the only significant tax hikes I would impose on oil overall would be on the importation of foreign oil.  We need to give our own oil and energy production industries free reign and actually rely on their capacity to produce domestic forms of energy.  At the same time, redoubling our efforts in this industry will protect and create jobs for our workers all across this country."  "So," Paul charges, "you believe government should manipulate the market."  "I believe," Daniels retorts, "that our government should be limited, but active in certain areas.  And three of those areas are creating jobs, putting America on a path to energy independence and ensuring American security."

Daniels' strong showing pays off handsomely at the polls.  Romney easily wins the Massachusetts primary, but Daniels takes Rhode Island, Virginia and Ohio. The vote remains close in Tennessee and the state dangles at "too close to call" for some time.  Romney slips by with a narrow victory in Oklahoma and wins in a walk in Utah.  But, in a dramatic turn of events, Paul decimates Romney's returns in Texas, allowing Daniels a breathtaking victory.  When the dust settles, a similar outcome emerges in Tennessee, where the Indiana governor's strong stance on energy carries it, and Daniels is pronounced the winner in the late hours of the evening.       

The impressive showing has allowed Daniels to recapture a delegate lead.  Romney vows to fight on.  But the returns prompt the pundits to begin to ask "electability" questions.  Daniels has shown robust strength in the midwest, carried the all-important swing states of Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire and now, owing to his muscular energy policy vision, has staged veritable coups in the border state of Tennessee and in Texas.  Romney might be stronger out west, but in a general election, the "Daniels states," it is argued, will be more crucial to winning a general election battle against president Obama.  The Romney campaign confidently responds that the battle is far from over, and the Republican party will rally behind whomever is nominated come November.  But the balance of the month's contest bode a daunting sign for him.

[Dancing with Myself]

Go Daniels!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I love this mini-tl you've got going. A Paul victory in a state can always spice things up. I also like how Mitt isn't necessarily the "heir-apparent" and that Cain wins a few states.

[feeblepizza]

Go Mitch!

[anvi]

It is now April 1st, and the Republican party primary season has yet to produce a conclusive winner.  After suffering devastating losses in Ohio, Virginia, Tennessee and Texas on March 6th, the Romney campaign managed to hold its own during the remainder of the month, and hopes it can turn the tables in Georgia and Pennsylvania this month.

Though Governor Mitch Daniels easily captured the Hawai'i caucuses, Romney, turning the tables on the energy debate of March, won Mississippi, sounding off about how oil companies need to invest more of their profit margins in spill cleanup strategies and technologies.  The former Massachusetts governor then showered Missouri with an ad blitz followed up by boisterous stump-speeches, both of which daringly repeated the questions: "Do you want Mitch Daniels to declare a 'truce' on American values?  Should we declare truces with our border security or on jobs for American citizens?  Since he has often hinted that he would support a Canada-style value-added tax, would he declare a truce on taxes too?  Do we want a truce-maker in the White House, or do we want American leadership?"  Daniels has never polled well in Missouri outside of the St. Louis metropolitan area, and Romney's aggressive campaign solidifies support in Kansas City and the rural areas of the state.  In his victory speech, Romney pledges to cheering supporters that, when faced with a clear choice, Americans will line up behind his nomination now, and behind his defeat or president Obama in the fall.

The contest in Colorado turns out harder than expected for Romney though.  Despite big returns in Colorado Springs and the rest of the state, Daniels puts up impressive numbers in the Boulder and Denver areas.  The Daniels campaign, though it doubts it can win here, wants once again to produce evidence that, come the fall, it will be able to mount the most serious challenge to Obama in the state.  Romney comes away with a nail-biting two-point win

The final contest of the season however places momentum squarely back behind Daniels.  Romney is crushed with almost elemental fury in Illinois, where voters from Chicago and its suburbs to downstate towns deliver Daniels a thirteen point victory.

GOP observers are beginning to worry about the length of time it is taking to decide upon a nominee.  President Obama has been busy lining up support and attempting to re-energize his base, accusing the Republican contestants for the nomination as fighting over methods for dissolving middle-class security, diluting public education and handing over tax breaks to big oil.  In rare moments of unanimity, Romney and Daniels respond that the protracted nomination battle is a blessing in disguise for the party; it both educates and fires up the voters for the fall, and they point to how much Obama's on-the-ground organization benefited from his long-drawn-out primary season victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.  Still, both campaigns assure listeners, the April primaries should reveal a clear winner.  "I have not sharpened the tone against Governor Daniels because I think he is a bad American," Romney says in defense of his strident ad attacks on Daniels in the past few weeks, "I have sharpened it because we as a nation must have a clear vision of what will both preserve American values and ensure American opportunities for the future.  That is what I intend to do for the rest of this nomination battle and for the general election campaign against president Obama."  "We always expected that Mitt Romney would be a worthy and tough opponent," Daniels confidently declares," but this campaign is not only about how you package ads and posture yourself; it's about how to adopt a principled approach to meeting the enormous economic challenges our country faces.  It's those principles, straght-forward, unambiguous, common-sense principles, that will help us win this nomination fight, win back the White House in November, and how America will emerge from this period of difficulty as the country of opportunity, prosperity and global leadership that we all know it is meant to be."  

[Mopsus]

Daniels=Green
Gingrich=Yellow
Pawlenty=Blue
Romney=Red

[anvi]

In early April contests, the candidates trade victories, but Daniels ends up with more delegates.  On August 3rd, Romney is able to eek out a narrow victory in Kansas, but Daniels scores big wins in Maryland and D.C.  All eyes are now trained on Georgia.

Governor Deal beams with pride as the mid-April primary approaches.  "We were heavily criticized for deciding in the end to stage our primary in April, but now it turns out we will play a big role in determining who will be our country's next president!"  Indeed, the television ratings for the pre-vote debate in Atlanta skyrocket, the atmosphere is tense, and both candidates, crisp and polished, are spoiling for the fight.  Paul is present and booms into the microphone when asked his questions, sometimes getting gleeful cheers from the spectators.  But for the most part, Romney and Daniels sidestep around his challenges and address one another.

Reverting to the themes that earned him an important win in Missouri the previous month, Romney is the first to attack.  "Governor Daniels, you began your campaign for the presidency by declaring a 'truce' on American values.  What else do you plan to declare truces on if elected president of our great country?  We you declare truces at our borders?  Will you declare truces with India and China on jobs for Americans?  Will you declare a truce with Nancy Pelosi on a value added tax too?  Is there any American value that you will refuse to declare a truce on, Governor?"  Without blinking, Daniels steadily but firmly fires back: "I know two things that are not American values, Mitt, and those are unemployment and deficits.  In my tenure as governor of Indiana, we have lowered property taxes and corporate taxes, instead of raising property taxes outright and state taxes indirectly by calling them fees like you did in Massachusetts.  We have attracted businesses to our state that have created jobs and increased government revenue, not scared them off with payroll tax increases like you did in Massachusetts.  We have expanded private health insurance coverage for the needy without creating health insurance mandates like you did in Massachusetts.  And we have turned state deficits into state surpluses with spending cuts and increased business investment in Indiana, instead of running back to property taxes to close budget shortfalls like you did in Massachusetts.  How 'bout them values, Mitt?"  "I have been involved in the private sector creating jobs all of my life, Governor," Romney stammers back, "I know how to create jobs and make businesses succeed."  "But you didn't help businesses succeed or help them create jobs when you were in the governor's mansion," Daniels interrupts, "I have, and that's what the American people are looking for now."  "You know how to help foreign businesses for sure," Romney says, momentarily regaining his composure, "like when you turned over an Indiana toll road to a Spanish firm."  "I attracted a legitimate investment to a state in economic need, and the money from that investment was used to improve our state's public transportation.  If you're blaming me for bringing money into the state and using that money to enhance our transportation system, that's blame I'll gladly take.  Keep it comin'!"

Later in the debate, the candidates are asked about their views of abortion.  Romney reaffirms his stance as a committed pro-life supporter, and challenges Daniels to clarify his position.  "You're right Mitt, there is a difference between our values.  I have never liked abortion, and when given the opportunity as governor of Indiana, I have taken steps to ensure that Planned Parenthood, an organization that receives federal money, is not allowed to directly offer abortion services.  Whether you are for or against abortion depends on whether you're running for the governorship of Massachusetts or the nomination of the Republican party.  I think the question the American people always have to ask themselves about a Mitt Romney presidency is whether he'll put his pen where his mouth is."  "Mitch," Romney insists, switching to the colloquial, "after changing my views on abortion, I limited access to contraception at hospitals and pharmacies.  I do put my principles into practice."  "Whatever those principles are at the moment, Mitt.  But for most of your time as governor, you ran Massachusetts like a Democrat, and in the fall, when the American people are asked to choose between a Democrat and a Democrat, what will they actually get?"  

Viewers are stunned by Daniels' toughness, and Romney is clearly stung by it.  Some in the media worry about whether Daniels has stepped across a line in calling his major nemesis in the Republican party primary a Democrat, and whether it will effect party unity.  But the memorable exchanges have made their intended impact on the voters going to the polls, and Georgia hands Daniels a six-point victory.

A week and a half later, the long-awaited Pennsylvania primary is anti-climactic.  Romney stages a campaign and touts his plans for opportunity and security, but his rhetorical attacks are now directed more at president Obama than at his rival for the nomination.  The call is made only a half-hour after the polls close, and Daniels ends up winning the Pennsylvania primary by almost eleven points.

In a brief concession speech, Romney congratulates Daniels on a well-fought victory, emotionally thanks his supporters, and promises better days ahead for the American people when the nation elects a new president in November.  But neither he nor his campaign makes any comment about whether they will continue.  The season's next primary contests are scheduled for May 6th in the states of Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia, and it looks gravely doubtful whether Romney will be able to catch up even close to Daniels in the delegate battle.  When pressed the following day, Romney's campaign manager tells reporters that they will be taking a close look at the numbers and making a decision about the campaign's future in about ten days.  A triumphant but stately Daniels, in his prime-time victory speech, tells his roaring supporters; "Governor Mitt Romney is a valiant campaigner, an American patriot and a symbol of what progress in our country is all about.  We are both lucky and proud to have him as a national leader in the Republican party."  The crowd erupts in sustained applause and cheers.  "In this primary season, we have heard the American people speak loudly and clearly.  They want to go back to work.  They want their government to live within its means.  They want their country to remain the leader of the world, not just in economic supremacy and military power, but in being the beacon of justice and the champion of equality for all.  I ask you to help me, to join me, in making these dreams, the most American kinds of dreams, into realities."          

[anvi]

Mitt Romney's calculations do not require ten days.  Having run out of arguments and nearing the end of campaign cash on hand, and with dismal numbers at the polls in unfavorable states, as well as at the behest of party leaders, the former Massachusetts governor organizes a May 1st announcement in Detroit.  With a little surprise.

"My pride in what we have achieved together in this campaign," he tells a large room full of cheering followers, "is only surpassed by my pride in the American people.  You have endured in the last eleven years terrorist attacks, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the worst recession since the Great Depression, and four years of disappointing presidential leadership, but you have dug in, pulled your families through the difficulties, and shown, with your steadfast and enthusiastic support of this campaign, that your dreams for a better future, and your personal dedication to those dreams, is undiminished, and undefeatable."  The crowd cheers, waving Mitt signs and American flags.  "While the time has come for me to suspend my campaign for the presidency, the time has also come for us to take our courage, our dedication and our energy to the task at hand this November, to win back the United States Senate, and win back the White House, not for the Republican party, but for the sake of a strong and promising American future."  Romney fights back emotion as he announces his withdrawal, and at the end of the ten minute speech, he pauses, waits for silence, and concludes: "And now, I hope you will join me in welcoming to this stage this afternoon, and in unreservedly backing for the next seven months, the next president of our United States of America, Mitch Daniels!"  Daniels trots onstage to a gracious welcome, embraces Romney, raises his hand to the the roaring Mitt campaign supporters, and after many minutes, takes the microphone.  Most of his short talk is devoted to praise of Romney and those who have participated in his campaign, and asking for a united Republican front as the nation looks forward to the summer conventions and the general election.

On May 6th, though the other candidate's names remain on the ballot, Daniels sweeps to victory in Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Paul holds a Texas event shortly thereafter, and announces to his backers that true fidelity to the Constitution deserves to be represented in the 2012 race for the presidency, and he will therefore bid to run under the Libertarian banner for the White House. 

On May 15th, though an absent Romney gets a healthy dose of support in Idaho, Daniels also sweeps Idaho, Oregon and Nebraska, capturing enough delegates to officially win the Republican party nomination.

In a television interview shortly after, Daniels is asked about his difficulties in the western states during the primary campaign.  Since president Obama put in such a strong showing in 2008 in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, and is still polling very well in the latter two despite somewhat soft numbers in Colorado, won't Daniels have trouble competing there?  Does he anticipate having to change his stance on border security and immigration in order to compete well in these states?  Will changing his stance effect his returns elsewhere?  Daniels says he has always been in favor of stringent law enforcement at the nation's borders, and pointing to his primary strength in the major swing states of the east and midwest, with an eye toward swinging Wisconsin, claims that he has plenty of ammunition to give president Obama headaches all over the map.  He is asked whether he has a short list for the vice presidential pick.  "I am still campaigning in the primaries!" he laughs.  "We will look at that decision, and consider our options carefully, over the summer."  Who would make the best pick for the purposes of the electoral map?  "Whoever can best assume the duties of the presidency."

Arkansas and Kentucky vote on May 22nd, Wyoming on May 25th and the remaining states on June 5th.  After en exciting, eventful and competitive open primary season of 2012, the Republican primary map looks like this.

Daniels
Romney
Pawlenty
Gingrich
Paul

Though Dennis Kucinich decided to mount a primary challenge to president Obama in the Democratic season, his campaign is symbolic and short-lived and he drops out of the race after Super Tuesday without capturing a delegate.  The major candidates for the presidential election of 2012 will be:

President Barack Obama (IL-D)
Governor Mitch Daniels (IN-R)
Congressman Dr. Ron Paul (TX-L)

Just after the primary season ends on June 5th, nationwide polling forecasts a tight race.  Rass. has Daniels leading 50-45 nationwide, PPP and Zogby have Obama in the lead 49-44, and Gallop has Daniels with a one-point lead, 46-45.
On June 10th, state-by-state polling aggregated on the RealClearPolitics website puts the projected electoral map at these ratios.

This gives Daniels a razor-thin edge, 272-266, but with ten major swing-states within the margin of error, and with six months of campaigning to go, the presidential race of 2012 is shaping up to be a dramatic one!

[anvi]

Thanks to both NHI and MOPolitico for posting maps!  I think the 2012 primary season will be a bit more competitive, but it will be fun to watch!

[feeblepizza]

I think the libertarians would get behind Daniels.

Otherwise, it's pretty realistic. The 2012 primaries will certainly be very interesting.

[Mopsus]

This timeline is very well-written and realistic, although I have difficulty seeing Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Kansas voting for former liberal and Bay Stater Mitt Romney.

[anvi]

Thanks, MO.  You're right, I don't think those states would vote for Romney in the abstract, even though Romney curiously won a LA straw poll not long ago.  I think in the TL I just had Romney winning these states because of the lack of a perceived alternative to Daniels, who doesn't always tow the conservative rhetorical line, whereas Romney will go there if it suits his purposes.

In any case, just playing with some ideas.  The two things I wanted to highlight with the TL are 1.) how interesting a contest something like the 2012 primary schedule could make a nomination battle, and 2.) how the debates between the candidates might shape up based on positions they've taken and things they've done so far.  Give or take a few states, I do think Daniels, if he gets in, has a strong chance to be the nominee, and if he is, he'll be the best GOP challenger to Obama.

[anvi]

Well, damn, now we'll never know.  Now, I'll have to wait another month to see who all gets in and who doesn't and do another TL.

[anvi]

So, now that Daniels is out and it looks like Huntsman will get in, let's assume for the moment that we'll have the following field of candidates running for the GOP nomination.

Bachman
Cain
Daniels
Gingrich
Huntsman
Johnson
Paul
Pawlenty
Romney
Santorum

I haven't had time to think through the details, so I haven't written a TL.  But here's what I beleive could play out.  Tell me what you think.

At this point, I see a horserace developing between Romney and T-Paw.  The other candidates just aren't strong enough.  In a better Republican field, I wouldn't give Pawlenty much of a chance at all, but since Huntsman is too much of a national unknown at this point, and worked for Obama for two years, I think T-Paw has now emerged as Mitt's biggest contender.

Given Pawlenty's stance against ethanol subsidies, it's hard to predict the results of the caucuses there with the current field, but his money and organizational apparatus going in make it tempting to give the edge to Romney here.  But I won't rule out the possibility that an outsider like Santorum, Bachman or Cain could pull off a win here.

Then, after Iowa, here's how it could play out.  Romney wins New Hampshire and then the big early states like Florida, New York and California, but Pawlenty hangs in there with wins in South Carolina and then in the midwest and then in Washington.  In the balance of February and March, Pawlenty begins to pile up victories on the stature of his conservative and midwestern creds in the midwest, parts of the south and all this culminates in a Texas win.  The high water mark comes at the end of April with the Pennsylvania primary.  In a close race, I'm not exactly sure how it will play out; T-Paw will take the rural areas easily, but I'm having a harder time seeing who will win in the cities and Philly burbs, but I'm going to say that Pawlenty could, at this juncture, pull it off.  Romney will win a few contests after that, but, in a primary victory similar to Obama's win over Clinton in '08, the remainder of small midwestern and western states seal it for Pawlenty.

The map at the end I have in mind looks something like this.

Pawlenty
Romney

 
I just have an extremely difficult time seeing Romney winning a GOP nomination in the long run.   Having been the governor of Mass., dealing with budget problems by several tax hikes, presiding over anemic labor market performance during his Mass. tenure, having helped craft a state health-care reform plan that inspired Obamacare and too much waffling on too many marker GOP issues just won't get him there, no matter how much good marketing and posturing he can muster.  I don't think Pawlenty's management of Minnesota during his governorship is anything glowing either.  But, he is crafting his message so far in a way that stands a good chance of winning primary voters over in the long run.

But I feel on much less sure ground predicting the above race without a real heavyweight in the field to challenge Romney.  What do you all think? 

[anvi]

Sorry, one edit above; switch Hawai'i to Romney.