Thread of Griping and Such Things

[mileslunn]

Election is still in two years, no ? Well, I know Gillard has only a two seat majority, but I've not heard about the possibility of a dissolution so far.

I hope we'll be spared from crazy Abbott.

Cameron, Key, Harper and Abbott would be like an Anglosphere of Doom.

  What about if the Republicans win in the US, that would mean for the first time in at least 20 years, possibly longer,  all Anglosphere countries have right of centre governments.  Mind you, I believe almost all EU countries have right of centre governments now and I think about 70%, maybe even 80% of developed countries have right of centre governments so far whatever reason it seems the developed world is swinging to the right.  Not much to celebrate for those on the left.  Off course things go in cycles, so that will change in time, but I think the overall trend in the West and rich countries is rightward.  My guess is the aging population is big part of it as people tend to become more conservative as they get older and the rich countries generally have older populations than elsewhere.

[mileslunn]

I am not so sure about France.  I agree the Socialist will probably win if they make it into the second round, but some polls suggest a repeat of 2002 in the second round, i.e. National Front vs. UMP.  Off course if the National Front is in the second round, they will lose badly to whomever they face.  As for Germany, swinging left, I agree the likelihood of a Black-Yellow coalition is diminishing, but I still think most show the Red-Green short of a majority.  A Red-Red-Green coalition is feasible now, but both the Greens and SPD and are against forming a coalition with the Left Party.  A Grand coalition, Jamaica Coalition, or Traffic Light coalition seem the most likely at this point.  The big if, though is does the FDP get above 5%.  If they fall under 5% that changes everything and then a Red-Green coalition is more likely since their combined vote only has to 50% of whatever percent of the population voted for parties that got over 5%, so 45% would probably be sufficient in this case, rather than 48-49%.