Gay Marriage Referendum Coming to Minnesota

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/22/minnesota-gay-marriage-ban-vote_n_865334.html

Vote takes place along with the 2012 general election. Any chance Minnesota becomes the first state to approve gay marriage, or at least defeat a ban? With the structure and the nature of the DFL coalition, I have to think that gays will lose here too.

So by that you mean overwhelmingly white liberals?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/22/minnesota-gay-marriage-ban-vote_n_865334.html

Vote takes place along with the 2012 general election. Any chance Minnesota becomes the first state to approve gay marriage, or at least defeat a ban? With the structure and the nature of the DFL coalition, I have to think that gays will lose here too.

So by that you mean overwhelmingly white liberals?

Maybe in the Twin Cities, but I can't see Iron Range or Red River Valley Democrats supporting gay marriage.

There is not a single major elected official in the Iron Range who doesn't support gay marriage. Duluth is one of three cities in Minnesota (You can probably guess the other two) to recognize domestic partnerships for unmarried couples living together, including homosexuals.

The Democrats in the Red River Valley are mostly the liberals and college kids in Moorhead. Sure there are olds and all in the rural counties, but they don't make up a very large percentage of the state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm wondering how the black neighborhoods in north Minneapolis will vote. It wouldn't surprise me if they vote against because the DFL will be distributing tons of "sample ballots" saying to vote no on it. Still there's no question that some precinct in north Minneapolis will have the largest gap between Obama's numbers and the "no" vote.

I wonder how my precinct will vote?

89% Obama

56.5% White
20.1% Black
13.5% Hispanic
5.1% Asian
2.2% Native
2.6% Other

So if the whites are 80-20 against, the blacks are like 60-40 in favor (see what I said above), everyone else is about 50-50, and the whites and blacks disproportionately turn out, then about 70% against?

(Not sure if I'll live here on election day 2012, but it's not likely I'll be living somewhere much different even if I'm not.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

County map prediction. Thoughts?



I should note that those two counties to the east of St. Louis are more like latte liberal havens than working class Dems.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does it ban civil unions too or just marriage?

It bans either civil unions or marriage being ordered by a court, but doesn't prohibit the legislature from passing a civil unions law.

I should note that those two counties to the east of St. Louis are more like latte liberal havens than working class Dems.

Cook has undergone a fairly recent transition (at least in terms of voting patterns), Lake appears to have a very strong DFL tradition.  Is Carlton better described as 'working class', and was Lake previously covered by this as well?

Lake still is pretty working class, but otherwise it's mostly people who like owning lakeside homes and all that stuff. Carlton is mostly just suburban Duluth. The southern half is pretty working class, but nowhere is all that socially conservative.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's another interesting question: Where will the no vote run the furthest behind Obama? And where it will be closest?

I say:

Furthest behind: Kittson. It's possible it'll be >60% Obama and >60% Yes.
Closest: Nicollet, very polarized.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The vote breakdown from the House. Kind of interesting:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The two Democrats voting yes are from a very conservative seat in northern Hennepin County and a Dem-leaning but not overwhelmingly rural district in western Minnesota. Unsurprisingly both were barely re-elected.

As for the Republicans voting no, Kelly is from a swing district in southeast Minnesota, that voted 52% for Obama (same year he barely won) but was won by Emmer by 4 points and he won in a landslide. It seems like he's aware not every year will be 2010 and is hedging his bets. Kriesel is from a very Dem inner-suburban district and barely won, his district voted for Obama by over 15 points and was even won by Franken by almost 5 points, about the same margin Dayton won it by in 2010. Kriesel barely won the open seat, so it's obvious what he's doing. Murray is from a heavily Dem seat in southern Minnesota, it was won by Obama by 18 points with McCain not even breaking 40, and by Franken by 6. In 2010 it was still won by Dayton by almost 10 points while he barely won by less than half a point, (the reason he won is pretty obvious, the DFL incumbent was from the wrong part of the district and due to that even didn't win by much in 2006 when it was an open seat.) Smith is the biggest surprise, he is from a very right wing (McCain by over 10 points, Emmer by almost 30!) district in the exurbs.

The two bolded Republicans are notable as barely winning in Dem-leaning districts. Both have universities and basically only won due to the college kids not coming out in 2010. Both seats voted for Franken and for Obama by double digits in one and 9 points in another.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Possibly. He's 61 and has only one kid according to bio info.

Kriesel's speech was great. I still hope he loses in 2012 but this puts him at the bottom of the list of vulnerable Republicans I hope lose, like Chafee in 2006.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nothing in Minnesota requires a supermajority in the legislature (besides overriding a veto obviously.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kelly's speech on it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8-QQ2YN8Qk

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Keep in mind this isn't a vote on legalizing it; it's a vote on whether to impose the already existing ban even further.

Exactly. New York and Maryland would likely vote down such a proposal. California would in 2012.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No way MN-2 would be worse than MN-6. MN-2 has the area around Cottage Grove (where Rep. Krisel is from), Northfield, and the areas not too far south of St. Paul which aren't very socially conservative at all. MN-6 doesn't really have anything besides the liberal part of St. Cloud and perhaps Stillwater.

MN-3 also has some pretty far right areas, order will probably be more like this: 5, 4, 8, 3, 1, 2, 6, 7. 7 falls last as it has a lot of socially conservative Democrats, not many in 6 which is just very polarized.