Inverclyde by-election

[You kip if you want to...]

8.83% swing to the SNP from LAB
0.03% swing to CON from LAB
4.48% swing to LAB from LD

[You kip if you want to...]

And after 4 by-elections:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour 53.8
SNP 33.0
Con 9.9
LDem 2.2
UKIP 1.0

Labour majority of 20.8

---

I would say solid yet not spectacular for both major parties. Ghastly for the LibDems. Not much else to say.

[doktorb]

For those of you who like to see the announcement - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13985622

[afleitch]

An expected result and again cementing the different voting tactics for national and Scottish elections. Of course certain commentators this morning have attempted to link this to Holyrood and dissatisfaction with the SNP which is a dangerous thing to do. Labour, officially at least have distanced themselves from this which is uncharateristically wise of them.

Worth noting that the swing in this election to the SNP in the by-election was larger than the swing to the SNP in Greenock and Inverclyde in May.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there any chance of this result maybe causing our beloved Westminster hacks to cover by-elections (especially in Scotland) a little more... er... rigorously in the future? Rather than just rely on clichés along with some nonsense fed to them by the official campaigns? Again, in Scotland it is in the interest of both Labour and the SNP to claim that there's a tight race in most by-elections, even when there isn't.

[YL]

I guess Labour will be reasonably happy at having held this comfortably after the disaster that was the Scottish Parliament election.

Another awful result for the Lib Dems.  Hopefully this time their candidate won't go crying to the Daily Mail about what a horrible place the constituency is.

[MaxQue]

Another awful result for the Lib Dems.  Hopefully this time their candidate won't go crying to the Daily Mail about what a horrible place the constituency is.

That once happened?

[You kip if you want to...]

Another awful result for the Lib Dems.  Hopefully this time their candidate won't go crying to the Daily Mail about what a horrible place the constituency is.

That once happened?

I think it was Barnsley Central. Saying how people from Barnsley are all racist, backward and stuck in the past so, naturally, they wouldn't be iclined to vote for the amazing, progressive, (elitist), leftie Liberals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, Dominic Carman. Here's the piece in question: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1363388/Barnsley-Central-election-Lib-Dems-Dominic-Carman-despised-man-town.html

Alas it was not originally published in the second half of Private Eye.

[minionofmidas]

Is there any chance of this result maybe causing our beloved Westminster hacks to cover by-elections (especially in Scotland) a little more... er... rigorously in the future?

No.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there any chance of this result maybe causing our beloved Westminster hacks to cover by-elections (especially in Scotland) a little more... er... rigorously in the future?

No.

Question were entirely rhetorical.

[minionofmidas]

I know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know.

But still something that needed to be said.

[minionofmidas]

I know.

But still something that needed to be said.

No.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know.

But still something that needed to be said.

No.

You would think differently if you'd seen Michael Crick's horrific linen suit.

[minionofmidas]

I know.

But still something that needed to be said.

No.

You would think differently if you'd seen Michael Crick's horrific linen suit.

No.

[Smid]

Jo Swinson says ongoing LibDem catastrophe in Scotland because of 'communication problems'.

By communication problems, he may mean "the voters have stopped listening to us."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not that this sort of thing ever tells us much, but if you apply the percentage changes from this by-election to all Scottish results in 2010 the follow seats change hands:

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to third behind the Tories).
Argyll & Bute - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to fourth behind the Tories and Labour).
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - SNP gain from LDem
Dunbartonshire East - Labour gain from LDem
Edinburgh West - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to third behind Labour and the Tories. This would be an SNP win from fourth place, fwiw).
Falkirk - SNP gain from Labour
Gordon - SNP gain from LDem
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - SNP gain from LDem (and who wouldn't be at least vaguely pleased at that?)
Ochil & South Perthshire - SNP gain from Labour

[joevsimp]

Not that this sort of thing ever tells us much, but if you apply the percentage changes from this by-election to all Scottish results in 2010 the follow seats change hands:

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to third behind the Tories).
Argyll & Bute - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to fourth behind the Tories and Labour).
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - SNP gain from LDem
Dunbartonshire East - Labour gain from LDem
Edinburgh West - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to third behind Labour and the Tories. This would be an SNP win from fourth place, fwiw).
Falkirk - SNP gain from Labour
Gordon - SNP gain from LDem
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - SNP gain from LDem (and who wouldn't be at least vaguely pleased at that?)
Ochil & South Perthshire - SNP gain from Labour

nothing grossly infeasible about any of those, as long as the Scottish Government doesn't do anything outlandishly stupid

[You kip if you want to...]

Not that this sort of thing ever tells us much, but if you apply the percentage changes from this by-election to all Scottish results in 2010 the follow seats change hands:

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to third behind the Tories).
Argyll & Bute - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to fourth behind the Tories and Labour).
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - SNP gain from LDem
Dunbartonshire East - Labour gain from LDem
Edinburgh West - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to third behind Labour and the Tories. This would be an SNP win from fourth place, fwiw).
Falkirk - SNP gain from Labour
Gordon - SNP gain from LDem
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - SNP gain from LDem (and who wouldn't be at least vaguely pleased at that?)
Ochil & South Perthshire - SNP gain from Labour

nothing grossly infeasible about any of those, as long as the Scottish Government doesn't do anything outlandishly stupid

Some will fall to the SNP next time round (Gordon Brown's gone), not that many though.