OR: Wyden very popular, but Merkley/Kitzhaber could be vulnerable

[Miles]

According to PPP, even though Republicans have a pretty weak bench in Oregon, if Greg Walden ran for Senate or Governor in 2014, he could turn either into a tossup.

Approvals:

Ron Wyden: 54/27
Jeff Merkley: 37/34
John Kitzhaber: 45/39
Greg Walden: 27/16
Allen Alley: 18/15
Bruce Hanna: 9/11
Jason Atkinson: 8/9

2014 Governor Potential Matchups:

Kitzhaber- 42%
Walden- 41%

Kitzhaber- 46%
Alley- 36%

Kitzhaber- 46%
Hanna- 33%

Kitzhaber- 45%
Atkinson- 30%

2014 Senate Matchups:

Walden- 42%
Merkley- 40%

Merkley -43%
Alley -37%

Merkley- 43%
Hanna- 35%

Merkley- 43%
Atkinson- 34%

Link.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

With Walden being too conservative to win statewide in Oregon, I presume? Probably better shot at Governor than Senate based on ideology? Am I reading this right?

[Kevin]

It' Oregon why even bother? As this state hasn't had a GOP governor since the 80's and will prob reelect Merkley and Kitzhaber despite it all.

Btw why is Merkley so shakey anyways he seems like a good fit for the state?

[greenforest32]

Surprisingly strong numbers for Walden. I didn't think he'd hit the 40s or even the high 30s considering his lack of name recognition statewide. Between the two races, the Governor's race is probably a better environment for him as his voting record in the house is anything but moderate. Don't see him winning either race though considering his opponents.

Kitzhaber hasn't said he'll run for reelection yet though many suspect he will and he would probably be the most favored candidate from Democrats to win in 2014. I think he'd have an easier time than in 2010 and Merkley I guess has kept a relatively low profile. I think people see him as more partisan than Wyden so I doubt he'll reach Wyden margin of victories due to the lack of crossover support.

If this is their bench, they're going to have a tough time. There's no recent GOP ex-Governors sitting around, Gordon Smith left to become a D.C. lobbyist, and Chris Dudley from 2010 recently left the state for Southern California. They don't hold any statewide office and for the 2012 elections, they fielded a weak, no-name recognition opponent against the Secretary of State while not even fielding candidates for Attorney General and State Treasurer (they're running write-in campaigns for these two now I believe), and the 2011 legislative session passed a bill that abolished the statewide elected office of 'Superintendent of Public Instruction' and folded its duties into the Governor's cabinet.

The only race it looks like they have a shot at this year and potentially another challenger from the above listed is the Labor Commissioner race. The incumbent Democrat is running for reelection and a relatively moderatish Republican state senator from suburban Washington county is running. Recent polling showed the race about 2x/2x/55%+ undecided. If they do win that, we'll probably pick up his senate seat as Washington county has trended towards Democrats in the last 20 years and his district is about D+5. Not sure how strong of a candidate he'd be in 2014.

That said, those are some big gender gaps in the cross-tabs. Women backing Kitzhaber/Merkley by almost 20+ points against most the challengers with men backing the Republican challengers by 5-12 average. There was a recent poll on the gender distribution of parties here showing that 58% of Oregon Democrats are female compared to 50% of Oregon Republicans and 48% of Independents/other parties: http://news.opb.org/article/how-health-oregons-gop/

[hopper]

Surprisingly strong numbers for Walden. I didn't think he'd hit the 40s or even the high 30s considering his lack of name recognition statewide. Between the two races, the Governor's race is probably a better environment for him as his voting record in the house is anything but moderate. Don't see him winning either race though considering his opponents.

Kitzhaber hasn't said he'll run for reelection yet though many suspect he will and he would probably be the most favored candidate from Democrats to win in 2014. I think he'd have an easier time than in 2010 and Merkley I guess has kept a relatively low profile. I think people see him as more partisan than Wyden so I doubt he'll reach Wyden margin of victories due to the lack of crossover support.

If this is their bench, they're going to have a tough time. There's no recent GOP ex-Governors sitting around, Gordon Smith left to become a D.C. lobbyist, and Chris Dudley from 2010 recently left the state for Southern California. They don't hold any statewide office and for the 2012 elections, they fielded a weak, no-name recognition opponent against the Secretary of State while not even fielding candidates for Attorney General and State Treasurer (they're running write-in campaigns for these two now I believe), and the 2011 legislative session passed a bill that abolished the statewide elected office of 'Superintendent of Public Instruction' and folded its duties into the Governor's cabinet.

The only race it looks like they have a shot at this year and potentially another challenger from the above listed is the Labor Commissioner race. The incumbent Democrat is running for reelection and a relatively moderatish Republican state senator from suburban Washington county is running. Recent polling showed the race about 2x/2x/55%+ undecided. If they do win that, we'll probably pick up his senate seat as Washington county has trended towards Democrats in the last 20 years and his district is about D+5. Not sure how strong of a candidate he'd be in 2014.

That said, those are some big gender gaps in the cross-tabs. Women backing Kitzhaber/Merkley by almost 20+ points against most the challengers with men backing the Republican challengers by 5-12 average. There was a recent poll on the gender distribution of parties here showing that 58% of Oregon Democrats are female compared to 50% of Oregon Republicans and 48% of Independents/other parties: http://news.opb.org/article/how-health-oregons-gop/

Smith can always come back to run for Governor. Brian Bilbray and Dan Coats were lobbyists and came back to elected office I think. Chris Dudley left Oregon for So. California. I rather live in Oregon. California is a mess fiscally.

Wyden is likeable even if you don't like his politics I have to chime in and say.

On a separate note the Oregon GOP better get their act together. Oregon is a state thats growing modestly population wise now and in the future.

Oh yeah I did read the article about the Oregon Republican Party. Good to hear we have somebody like Vicki Berger in the party and she is proud to be a Moderate Republican. We need more like her in the party in my opinion.