Illinois Congressional Jujitsu
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Author Topic: Illinois Congressional Jujitsu  (Read 30537 times)
muon2
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« Reply #125 on: February 06, 2012, 04:42:36 AM »
« edited: February 25, 2012, 10:08:41 AM by muon2 »

All the challenges have been processed and absentee voting starts on Feb 9 (early voting starts on Feb 27) Here's the updated list, with removed candidates.

Today was the first day for IL Congressional filing, delayed by a month by the court case. Tuesday is the only other day to file, but since signature collection has been underway for quite a while, most were ready to file today. Here's the lineup at the close of filing(bold for incumbents):

IL-1
D: Rush, Russell, Sims, Smith, Lodato, Bailey
R: Collins, Peloquin, Tillman

IL-2
D: Jackson, Halvorson
R: Taylor, Woodworth

IL-3
D: Lipinski, Baqai
R: Jones, Grabowski, Falvey

IL-4
D: Gutierrez, Zavala
R: Concepcion

IL-5
D: Quigley
R: Schmitt

IL-6
D: Coolidge, Petzel, Ritter, Yates
R: Roskam

IL-7
D: Conway, Davis

IL-8
D: Krishnamoorthi, Duckworth
R: Canfield, Evans, Walsh

IL-9
D: Schakowsky, Ribiero
R: Wolfe, Atanus

IL-10
D: Bavda, Schneider, Sheyman, Tree, Rutagwibira
R: Dold

IL-11
D: Foster, Hickey, Thomas
R: Biggert, Cunningham, Harris

IL-12
D: Harriman, Miller, Wiezer
R: Cook, Plummer, Kormos, Newman

IL-13
D: Gill, Goetten
R: Firsching, Johnson, Metzger

IL-14
D: Anderson, Farnick
R: Hultgren

IL-15
D: Michael
R: Shimkus

IL-16
R: Kinzinger, Manzullo

IL-17
D: Aguilar, Bustos, Gaulrapp
R: Schilling

IL-18
D: Waterworth, Woodmancy
R: Schock, Miller

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #126 on: February 06, 2012, 04:55:04 AM »

All the challenges have been processed and absentee voting starts on Feb 9 (early voting starts on Feb 27) Here's the updated list, with removed candidates.

IL-4
D: Gutierrez, Zavala
R: Concepcion


Lol. Congratulations on your reelection, Congressman Gutierrez (does Illinois even allow write-ins?)
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muon2
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« Reply #127 on: February 06, 2012, 06:36:46 AM »

All the challenges have been processed and absentee voting starts on Feb 9 (early voting starts on Feb 27) Here's the updated list, with removed candidates.

IL-4
D: Gutierrez, Zavala
R: Concepcion


Lol. Congratulations on your reelection, Congressman Gutierrez (does Illinois even allow write-ins?)

Write-in candidates must register 61 days before the election. That deadline has passed for the primary.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #128 on: February 06, 2012, 10:04:29 AM »

But there could be any for the General?
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muon2
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« Reply #129 on: February 06, 2012, 11:00:32 AM »


Sure. Independents can file in June, but they need a lot of signatures, and you can't use ones that voted in a partisan primary or signed a partisan petition for the primary. The GOP could slate someone who would have to go get signatures as well. Write-ins can file up to 61 days before the election.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #130 on: February 13, 2012, 04:36:59 PM »

http://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2012/02/progressive-sheyman-up-with-first-ad-114259.html

Illinois Democrat Ilya Sheyman goes up with the first ad Monday of the competitive 10th Congressional District primary, branding himself as the "progressive" in the race to face freshman Rep. Bob Dold.




Lol. Good luck!

The American dream is apparently working for Moveon.org.
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ill ind
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« Reply #131 on: February 22, 2012, 11:13:22 AM »

  Kane County Clerk Jack Cunningham was placed back on the Il-11 GOP ballot by the courts.

Ill_Ind
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muon2
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« Reply #132 on: February 25, 2012, 10:09:28 AM »

  Kane County Clerk Jack Cunningham was placed back on the Il-11 GOP ballot by the courts.

Ill_Ind


My list above is now corrected accordingly.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #133 on: March 12, 2012, 12:58:48 PM »

Moveon Progressive Sheyman is accusing Schneider of being a closet Republican.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73830.html



Bob Dold is certainly hoping for the nutter Sheyman!
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muon2
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« Reply #134 on: March 21, 2012, 12:01:02 AM »
« Edited: March 21, 2012, 12:33:53 AM by muon2 »

Here is the post-primary field (incumbent bold). There is still the possibility of party slating and independent filing in May and June.

IL-1
D: Rush
R: Peloquin

IL-2
D: Jackson
R: Woodworth

IL-3
D: Lipinski
R: Grabowski

IL-4
D: Gutierrez

IL-5
D: Quigley
R: Schmitt

IL-6
D: Coolidge
R: Roskam

IL-7
D: Davis

IL-8
D: Duckworth
R: Walsh

IL-9
D: Schakowsky
R: Wolfe

IL-10
D: Schneider
R: Dold

IL-11
D: Foster
R: Biggert

IL-12
D: Harriman
R: Plummer

IL-13
D: Gill (pending certification over Goetten)
R: Johnson

IL-14
D: Anderson
R: Hultgren

IL-15
D: Michael
R: Shimkus

IL-16
R: Kinzinger

IL-17
D: Bustos
R: Schilling

IL-18
D: Waterworth
R: Schock
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #135 on: March 21, 2012, 12:11:52 AM »

So Kinzinger wins, after all.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #136 on: March 22, 2012, 12:49:10 PM »

What's the Dem candidate for IL17 like?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #137 on: March 22, 2012, 04:33:20 PM »

What's the Dem candidate for IL17 like?

Cheri Bustos, a city council member in East Moline and former journalist. She's raised quite a bit of money so far.
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muon2
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« Reply #138 on: April 06, 2012, 11:04:36 AM »

With Johnson's imminent retirement announcement, the GOP bench is warming up for IL-13. The replacement on the ballot is made by a weighed vote of the county GOP chairs. There are a lot of calls being made now to winnow the field of replacements should the announcement become official.
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Torie
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« Reply #139 on: April 07, 2012, 09:25:11 AM »
« Edited: April 07, 2012, 11:23:32 AM by Torie »

With Johnson's imminent retirement announcement, the GOP bench is warming up for IL-13. The replacement on the ballot is made by a weighed vote of the county GOP chairs. There are a lot of calls being made now to winnow the field of replacements should the announcement become official.

What do you think the PVI baseline is in Illinois, Muon2?  55.7% two party Obama vote downstate, and 58.7% in Chicagoland (outside heavily black/Hispanic CD's not in play)?
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muon2
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« Reply #140 on: April 07, 2012, 11:41:44 AM »

With Johnson's imminent retirement announcement, the GOP bench is warming up for IL-13. The replacement on the ballot is made by a weighed vote of the county GOP chairs. There are a lot of calls being made now to winnow the field of replacements should the announcement become official.

What do you think the PVI baseline is in Illinois, Muon2?  55.7% two party Obama vote downstate, and 58.7% in Chicagoland (outside heavily black/Hispanic CD's not in play)?

It's hard to say. As you note downstate is certainly different than Chicagoland, but IL-13 is a string of university towns and that might give it a more suburban feel for its PVI base.
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muon2
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« Reply #141 on: April 07, 2012, 11:57:28 AM »

With Johnson's imminent retirement announcement, the GOP bench is warming up for IL-13. The replacement on the ballot is made by a weighed vote of the county GOP chairs. There are a lot of calls being made now to winnow the field of replacements should the announcement become official.

The primary returns are not certified yet, so Johnson can't withdraw until that happens. The parties do not elect county chairs until April 18 when the newly elected committeemen will meet. Those chairs (14 counties for IL-13) will vote for a ballot replacement.
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Torie
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« Reply #142 on: April 07, 2012, 01:20:25 PM »
« Edited: April 07, 2012, 01:22:53 PM by Torie »

With Johnson's imminent retirement announcement, the GOP bench is warming up for IL-13. The replacement on the ballot is made by a weighed vote of the county GOP chairs. There are a lot of calls being made now to winnow the field of replacements should the announcement become official.

What do you think the PVI baseline is in Illinois, Muon2?  55.7% two party Obama vote downstate, and 58.7% in Chicagoland (outside heavily black/Hispanic CD's not in play)?

It's hard to say. As you note downstate is certainly different than Chicagoland, but IL-13 is a string of university towns and that might give it a more suburban feel for its PVI base.

I'm thinking maybe 6% for Chicagoland Muon2, and 3% for the balance of the state (IL-13 maybe in-between). What do you think?

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ill ind
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« Reply #143 on: May 22, 2012, 10:01:06 AM »

  Rodney Davis--former staffer for John Shimkus is the GOP choice in Il-13.

Ill Ind
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #144 on: May 22, 2012, 03:34:17 PM »

Davis was chosen from among four finalists. The three others were:

* Jerry Clarke, who previously served as Johnson's chief of staff;

* Former Miss America Erika Harold, an attorney and Urbana native;

* Kathy Wassink, of Macoupin County, who owns a business that serves students with special needs. She also is an organizer of a local Tea Party-type group.

Summary stolen here
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ill ind
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« Reply #145 on: May 29, 2012, 08:40:02 AM »

  The Democrats nominated Wanda Rohl to run in Il-16. 
  Illinois has a proceedure where the party can nominate somebody to fill a slot that had no nominee chosen in the March 20 primary.

Ill_Ind
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ill ind
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« Reply #146 on: May 29, 2012, 12:33:54 PM »

  Brad Harriman has now dropped out as the Democratic candidate in Il-12.

  A sure bet 6 or so months ago to have Jerry Costello re-elected (the district was made more GOP freindly because it was believe Costello was popular enough to still get reelected) is fast becoming a Democratic dummymander!!!

Ooof!!

Ill_ind
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DrScholl
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« Reply #147 on: May 29, 2012, 01:03:34 PM »

Harriman dropped out for health reasons and the Republican candidate is not that great at all. The district was barely moved in redistricting, in fact it's slightly more Democratic.
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ill ind
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« Reply #148 on: May 29, 2012, 01:27:39 PM »

Dr Scholl

  Adding on the remainder of Williamson County (Mc Cain 56-42 over Obama) and Jefferson County (McCain 54-34 over Obama) did not make the district more Democratic--if anything the district has been made more GOP friendly.  Also, southern Illinois (with the exception of East St Louis in this district) has become like the southern states in shifting away from the Democratic Party--except for incumbents like Jerry Costello who managed to hang on because of their personal poularity.

Ill_ind
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #149 on: May 29, 2012, 01:52:30 PM »

Harriman was still the very clear favorite in that race.
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