Illinois Congressional Jujitsu

[ill ind]

  Frerichs putting himself out of the Il-13 race leaves Dr. David Gill who has expressed an interest.  Problem is that he is already a 3 time loser having lost to Johnson in 2004, 2006, and 2010.  However, the district is quite a bit more Democrat friendly than the present Il-15, but if the Dems can not do better than a 4th time retread, then I expect Johnson to be reelected handily.
  Also, Frerichs' increased margin in 2010 had more to do with the looniness of the GOP's candidate (tossing a great pickup opportunity out the window) than anything Frerichs did or did not do.  I believe the GOP organization refused to even endorse their own candidate in that race.

Ill Ind

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

  Frerichs putting himself out of the Il-13 race leaves Dr. David Gill who has expressed an interest.  Problem is that he is already a 3 time loser having lost to Johnson in 2004, 2006, and 2010.  However, the district is quite a bit more Democrat friendly than the present Il-15, but if the Dems can not do better than a 4th time retread, then I expect Johnson to be reelected handily.
  Also, Frerichs' increased margin in 2010 had more to do with the looniness of the GOP's candidate (tossing a great pickup opportunity out the window) than anything Frerichs did or did not do.  I believe the GOP organization refused to even endorse their own candidate in that race.

Ill Ind

Mike Kelleher could beat Johnson (though it would be very close, I could see it being more or less a reverse of the 2000 election).

[muon2]

  Frerichs putting himself out of the Il-13 race leaves Dr. David Gill who has expressed an interest.  Problem is that he is already a 3 time loser having lost to Johnson in 2004, 2006, and 2010.  However, the district is quite a bit more Democrat friendly than the present Il-15, but if the Dems can not do better than a 4th time retread, then I expect Johnson to be reelected handily.
  Also, Frerichs' increased margin in 2010 had more to do with the looniness of the GOP's candidate (tossing a great pickup opportunity out the window) than anything Frerichs did or did not do.  I believe the GOP organization refused to even endorse their own candidate in that race.

Ill Ind

Mike Kelleher could beat Johnson (though it would be very close, I could see it being more or less a reverse of the 2000 election).

'

Here's another potential Dem in the 13th to watch. Hoffman has an excellent record as a fundraiser from his long tenure in the IL House.

[ill ind]

  I'm kind of suprised that Jay Hoffman would opt for running for Congress, when his former State House Seat was nicely remapped to help his comeback odds.

Ill_ind

[krazen1211]

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_146/top-5-member-vs-member-battles-206842-1.html?pos=hln

Kinzinger would lose if he ran for re-election in Jackson’s predominantly black and urban district. He could move to run in the redrawn Democratic-leaning 11th district southwest of Chicago, but Republicans say seven-term Rep. Judy Biggert (R) is already eyeing that seat.


Great news. Biggert is a solid shot at that 11th.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I'll give Kinzinger credit for being anti-Gaddafi unlike most Republicans, but I'd rather have both him and Biggert gone. And that's what's likely to happen. A very dull backbencher like Biggert isn't a solid shot for a seat that's about D+8.

[krazen1211]

I'll give Kinzinger credit for being anti-Gaddafi unlike most Republicans, but I'd rather have both him and Biggert gone. And that's what's likely to happen. A very dull backbencher like Biggert isn't a solid shot for a seat that's about D+8.

It's not even close to that if you include Bush/Kerry results. GOP incumbents outperformed McCain by about 10 points in 2008.

And Biggert has a history of tough wins. She did beat Roskam after all.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's the problem: the district only includes 48% of her former district. It cuts out most of her base in Downers Grove and all of the Cook County suburbs, expands on her weakest part of the district (Will County) and it pulls in some pretty Democratic areas in Joliet and Aurora. That's not a very strong starting position, especially when she would face a pretty strong Democratic candidate in Bill Foster. I certainly wouldn't put money on her.

[Mr.Phips]

I'll give Kinzinger credit for being anti-Gaddafi unlike most Republicans, but I'd rather have both him and Biggert gone. And that's what's likely to happen. A very dull backbencher like Biggert isn't a solid shot for a seat that's about D+8.

It's not even close to that if you include Bush/Kerry results. GOP incumbents outperformed McCain by about 10 points in 2008.

And Biggert has a history of tough wins. She did beat Roskam after all.

She wouldnt be the incumbent in almost half of the district. 

[DrScholl]

There is no incumbent in IL-11 and that district basically takes in the most heavily Democratic areas of DuPage, Kane and Will. Even in 2004, it clearly would have voted for Kerry and probably voted for Gore as well. That seat is gone for Republicans, no spin about it.

[muon2]

There is no incumbent in IL-11 and that district basically takes in the most heavily Democratic areas of DuPage, Kane and Will. Even in 2004, it clearly would have voted for Kerry and probably voted for Gore as well. That seat is gone for Republicans, no spin about it.

The Cook PVI for the new CD-11 is D+5. Compare that to the current CD-10 that has a D+6 and was able to elect Kirk in Dem years 06 and 08, and unknown Dold over known Seals in 2010.

In 2004, Kerry won the new 11th by 49.9 to 48.4. Obama won with 61.1%, slightly less than his state average. In 2010 Brady beat Quinn 46.0 to 44.8. In an open contest it would be a lean D seat.

In terms of composition from current districts, 48% comes from the current IL 13, 26% from the current IL 14, and 26% from the current IL 11. That shifts if you consider where the votes come from. In 2008, 56% of the vote was from the current IL 13, 27% from current IL 11, and only 17% from current IL 14.

This doesn't look like a gimme for the Dems. A Foster (IL 14) vs Biggert (IL 13) matchup could be very competitive.

[ill ind]

  Dr. David Gill has announced his intentions to run in Il-13 as a Democrat.  This marks the 4th time that he has attempted to unseat incumbent Timothy Johnson.

  Tammy Duckworth who ran in Il-6 back in 2006 when it was an open seat is now running for the open seat in Il-8.  This sets up a primary between her and Raja Krishnamoorthi, which could become very very expensive and very very competitive.  I've also read about a scenario in which Peter Roskam runs in Il-8, Joe Walsh in Il-6, and Randy Hultgren in Il-14.  This keeps incumbent GOP congressmen from having to run against each other.  If Roskam runs in Il-08 and Duckworth wins the primary, then we would have a rerun of the narrow 2006 race in a somewhat different district, although about 50% of it is territory from the present Il-6.

  Cheryl Bustos has announced her candidacy for the Dem nomination in Il-17.  That makes 3 candidates running for chance to take on bobby Shilling.  Bustos, Goerge Gaulrap the losing candidate in Il-16 in 2010 and Il State Senator David Koehler with several others mulling over the race.

Ill_Ind

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why would Roskam give up his safe district in deference to Walsh?

[ill ind]

  Johnny Longtorso

  It would make sense if Roskam ran in the new Il-8 because he has more longevity and better name recognition than Walsh.  Not to mention that the area in Il-8 is about 2/3 from the present Il-6 that Roskam presently represents.  Daily Kos and the others are blowing smoke up your butt if you believe that the new Il-8 is a gimmy for the Dems.  I'd say the same for the new Il-11 and new Il-10 as well.  None of them are the gimmy seats that a whole lot of the left wing has been pimping.  They are all going to be competitive--possibly all with GOP incumbents if Roskam runs in the new Il-8 and Biggert in the new Il-11.  Roskam is a good campaigner, and has recognition in the vast majority of Il-8.  Walsh is a newbie and would do better in a solidly GOP district until he is better known.  None of this is for sure, but it certainly makes sense if the GOP is going to attempt to minimize its losses in Il.

  just my $.02--and that's about all its worth.

Ill Ind

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Walsh is also an outsider, and most of the ILL GOP establishment is probably counting the minutes till he is gone. Thus I doubt you have a deal between three GOP Reps involving him. You might have a deal where Hultgren gets 14, Roskam 8 and a State Senator or Rep gets 6, but I don't see Walsh being a part of such an insider GOP arrangement. Maybe I am wrong, but I just don't see it.

Right now the GOP's best chance to fight back against the new arrangement is to ensure Johnson is reelected in the 13th. Next down would be Dold winning the 10th again. Holding the 8th is probably bottom of the list.

Lastly, aren't we talking about the ILL GOP? Their primary strategy for the last decade has been to be defeated.

[minionofmidas]

None of this is for sure, but it certainly makes sense if the GOP is going to attempt to minimize its losses in Il.

It makes sense for the party. It doesn't make sense for the incumbents in question (unless there's something in it for them). Thus, the usual outcome would be for it to not happen.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Roskam is also in the Republican leadership (chief deputy whip), so I doubt he'd want a more Democratic district.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Roskam is also in the Republican leadership (chief deputy whip), so I doubt he'd want a more Democratic district.

Almost forgot that, and he does have a 97% ACU score, as well. I don't see him taking the plunge in a D+5 (?). We should never forget that we are dealing with politicians here and they are usually a very selfish bunch.

[krazen1211]

Dold is running in the 10th.

His first potential opponent? A 25 year old community organizer.

http://glenview.patch.com/articles/waukegan-democrat-is-early-dold-challenger

And here we are:

http://highlandpark.patch.com/articles/sheyman-raises-almost-110k-for-congressional-run

Waukegan community organizer Ilya Sheyman announced Friday he raised nearly $110,000 in his campaign for the Democratic nomination to oppose Rep. Robert Dold (R-Kenilworth) in the 2012 race for the 10th Congressional District seat.

He has been an organizer with both Democracy for America and MoveOn.org.





Great news for Dold, if a community organizer wins the nomination.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hand out of your pants, krazen: Brad Schneider, who is also running in IL-10, raised $321k.

[muon2]

Hand out of your pants, krazen: Brad Schneider, who is also running in IL-10, raised $321k.

I think the more interesting information in the article is the suggestion that Carol Sente may run. She is mapped into the same IL House district as a popular GOP'er who has been able to hold Dem-leaning seats.

[ill ind]

  I read about Carol Sente as well.  I don't know if I accept your reasoning though.  The Illinois GOP ran pretty hard against her in 2010 (recent appointee--little incumbency) and came up a little under 3% short.  I don't see where she has to fear Mathias as very very little of the new Il-59 comes from the old Il-53 that he represents.  He'd be the one running in a new district on unfamiliar turf having an uphill battle not her. 
  Ed Sullivan was also drawn into Sente's district too, but he only has to move a little bit west to run in the new 51st district.  Mathias could move south into the new Il-53, but then he would have to run against incumbent David Harris.
 
  To me the suggestion of Sente may be just noise.  I don't think the Dems are happy with the announced candidates so far and are casting about for somebody else.

Ill_ind

[muon2]

  I read about Carol Sente as well.  I don't know if I accept your reasoning though.  The Illinois GOP ran pretty hard against her in 2010 (recent appointee--little incumbency) and came up a little under 3% short.  I don't see where she has to fear Mathias as very very little of the new Il-59 comes from the old Il-53 that he represents.  He'd be the one running in a new district on unfamiliar turf having an uphill battle not her. 
  Ed Sullivan was also drawn into Sente's district too, but he only has to move a little bit west to run in the new 51st district.  Mathias could move south into the new Il-53, but then he would have to run against incumbent David Harris.
 
  To me the suggestion of Sente may be just noise.  I don't think the Dems are happy with the announced candidates so far and are casting about for somebody else.

Ill_ind

Sente's out and will just run for her House seat. It seems like she did give a serious look, however. The Dems still don't seem to have a strong candidate in a district they drew to bump out Dold.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Club for Growth, at least, thinks Walsh will run in IL-14, as they endorsed him there.

[ill ind]

  And on the same day, the Chicago Sun Times breaks the story that Walsh owes $117,000 in back child support.  (Good old 'family values' strikes again)  Call Obama a liar and scream over and over on cable TV about how you will not compromise on your financial values, but all the while not taking care of your own. Despicable!!!
  Walsh rode the perfect storm to victory last year, but it looks like one and done for him.  Wonder what Club for Growth is thinking about their endorsement today.

Ill Ind