Illinois Congressional Jujitsu

[Mr.Phips]

I'll give Kinzinger credit for being anti-Gaddafi unlike most Republicans, but I'd rather have both him and Biggert gone. And that's what's likely to happen. A very dull backbencher like Biggert isn't a solid shot for a seat that's about D+8.

It's not even close to that if you include Bush/Kerry results. GOP incumbents outperformed McCain by about 10 points in 2008.

And Biggert has a history of tough wins. She did beat Roskam after all.

She wouldnt be the incumbent in almost half of the district. 

[Mr.Phips]

What does IL-12 look like with a Democratic candidate who appears to have a decent, even downright impressive, resume? Still lean/likely R without Costello? Is that even what would have been Costello's district anymore?

IL-12 is at worst a tossup for Democrats.  Even John Kerry won this district. 

[Mr.Phips]

http://capitolfax.com/2012/06/25/dems-go-with-enyart-but-did-they-do-themselves-any-favors/

Enyart has never run for anything. Plummer has raised a bunch of money, the US Chamber is pumping cash into his effort, and he has a ground game. Enyart has nothing. Plummer will win more votes than a usual Republican would in Madison County because he’s from there and his father is very bigtime. And the Democrats really needed somebody who could appeal to the more “southern” counties outside the Metro East. I don’t think they did that here. Enyart is an unknown, untested candidate up against a battle-tested, well-funded opponent.




The GOP is well prepared to break down the gerrymander and retain a majority of Illinois House seats.

No way.  Walsh is absolute toast and Dold likely is as well.  Schilling's district got much more Democratic as did Biggert's.  Even if Plummer wins, Democrats will likely come out with a majority in the delegation. 

[Mr.Phips]

Walsh is the most vulnerable Pub incumbent in the House in the nation going away. Nobody else comes close.

Roscoe Bartlett comes pretty close. 

[Mr.Phips]

Walsh is the most vulnerable Pub incumbent in the House in the nation going away. Nobody else comes close.

Roscoe Bartlett comes pretty close. 

Yes, true.

But I don't picture Bartlett putting up the same fight that Walsh will.

Walsh will probably lose by close to 20 points.  Barlett will probably lose by about 10.  He'll got about 58% in the half of the district that he represented, but will likely struggle to get a third of the vote in the half of the district that is new to him and very Democratic.