Illinois Congressional Jujitsu

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Darn, I was hoping Kinzinger would stay around a little longer.

I pointed out elsewhere that Manzullo might be in trouble; the majority of the new IL-16 consists of territory from other districts (including about 200k people from IL-11). Kinzinger might have a shot at beating him in a primary.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The new 15th is mostly old Shimkus turf.

Shimkus will just take the 56% McCain district and nicely park his butt there for 10 years. A moderate like Johnson is going to be forced into the Springfield district, which he should win easily enough.

No way Shimkus loses a primary. He's already won 1 head to head battle against an imcumbent.

What makes Johnson a moderate?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

although the Illinois maps are heavily partisan and something that they normally wouldn't do, its something that they MUST do due to the fact that republicans will try to guarantee themselves a majority for the next 10 years so the democrats have to level the playing field.

...why would a heavily partisan map be something Illinois wouldn't do? The only reason why the last couple Illinois maps weren't gerrymanders is because Illinois had a pretty long string of GOP governors (1977–2003).

And everyone always forgets this, but the Illinois Senate was controlled by Republicans during the last remap (they lost control in 2004).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What a disgusting, partisan map, if I may add.

The districts outside of the Chicago area will look a lot prettier (shape-wise) than they have the past 10 years.

Then I'll add, the map created by Democrats 10 years ago was also extremely partisan.

I understand both sides do it, Franzl, and I think it's disappointing both ways, not just when Democrats do it.

Um, you obviously didn't read the thread: Democrats didn't have control in Illinois 10 years ago. Republicans held the Governor's mansion and the State Senate. The map that was created was a bipartisan incumbent protector.

I'll also be expecting you to decry the inevitable partisan gerrymanders in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and so forth.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well I know Tmth has been supportive of Proportinal Representation when we've discussed the subject before, so I think he's quite honest here.

STV would end all garrymandering.

I just have to roll my eyes at the partisan hypocrisy that goes on with redistricting. It's a terrible gerrymander when the other side does it, but it's a fair map when our side does it. The only thing I complain about is political malpractice, like the awful map the Arkansas Dems produced.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This guy appears to be running in the 10th as well.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

State Sen. Dave Koehler of Peoria is looking at a run against Schilling in IL-17. Phil Hare has taken himself out of contention for a return to Congress; good news for the Democrats there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So I guess that just leaves top-level Democratic recruits for IL-10 and IL-13. I'm wondering if this guy is considering a run for the latter. He has an interesting biography; at age 37, he's been elected to the Champaign County Board, Coundy Auditor, and State Senate, and after getting elected to the State Senate in 2006, he actually increased his margin of victory in 2010. He actually ran against Tim Johnson before, for the State House in 1998 at the age of 25. And he's 6'8", so he'd probably be the tallest member of Congress.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Is Dan Seals unavailable?

He just got a job in the Quinn administration.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like Atkinson is giving up, so Foster and Lipinski will probably get free rides in their primaries.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's the problem: the district only includes 48% of her former district. It cuts out most of her base in Downers Grove and all of the Cook County suburbs, expands on her weakest part of the district (Will County) and it pulls in some pretty Democratic areas in Joliet and Aurora. That's not a very strong starting position, especially when she would face a pretty strong Democratic candidate in Bill Foster. I certainly wouldn't put money on her.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why would Roskam give up his safe district in deference to Walsh?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Roskam is also in the Republican leadership (chief deputy whip), so I doubt he'd want a more Democratic district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hand out of your pants, krazen: Brad Schneider, who is also running in IL-10, raised $321k.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Club for Growth, at least, thinks Walsh will run in IL-14, as they endorsed him there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Grundy County Board member Chris Balkema is considering running for IL-11 on the Republican side. State Sen. Chris Lauzen (whom we may remember as the only person ever to lose an election to Jim Oberweis) was considering it but decided to run for Kane County Board Chair instead.

I'm not sure why Balkema is considering running in the 11th, since Grundy County isn't even in that district, it's in the 16th.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hultgren is running in the 14th, no surprise there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Walsh is going to run against Hultgren in IL-14, and Kinzinger will run against Manzullo in IL-16 (note: the article claims Manzullo will run in IL-11, but that is false).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Are the Black CD's not 50% black VAP?

They are all majority-black in VAP. Jackson is just being a baby.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Joe Walsh is running in IL-08. Good riddance to that trash.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, just Halvorson is running against JJJ? So much for that being interesting.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What's the Dem candidate for IL17 like?

Cheri Bustos, a city council member in East Moline and former journalist. She's raised quite a bit of money so far.