Illinois Congressional Jujitsu

[muon2]

State Sen. Dave Koehler of Peoria is looking at a run against Schilling in IL-17. Phil Hare has taken himself out of contention for a return to Congress; good news for the Democrats there.

It's official for Koehler.

[muon2]

So I guess that just leaves top-level Democratic recruits for IL-10 and IL-13. I'm wondering if this guy is considering a run for the latter. He has an interesting biography; at age 37, he's been elected to the Champaign County Board, Coundy Auditor, and State Senate, and after getting elected to the State Senate in 2006, he actually increased his margin of victory in 2010. He actually ran against Tim Johnson before, for the State House in 1998 at the age of 25. And he's 6'8", so he'd probably be the tallest member of Congress.

Frerichs is not running for the 13th.

[muon2]

  Frerichs putting himself out of the Il-13 race leaves Dr. David Gill who has expressed an interest.  Problem is that he is already a 3 time loser having lost to Johnson in 2004, 2006, and 2010.  However, the district is quite a bit more Democrat friendly than the present Il-15, but if the Dems can not do better than a 4th time retread, then I expect Johnson to be reelected handily.
  Also, Frerichs' increased margin in 2010 had more to do with the looniness of the GOP's candidate (tossing a great pickup opportunity out the window) than anything Frerichs did or did not do.  I believe the GOP organization refused to even endorse their own candidate in that race.

Ill Ind

Mike Kelleher could beat Johnson (though it would be very close, I could see it being more or less a reverse of the 2000 election).

'

Here's another potential Dem in the 13th to watch. Hoffman has an excellent record as a fundraiser from his long tenure in the IL House.

[muon2]

There is no incumbent in IL-11 and that district basically takes in the most heavily Democratic areas of DuPage, Kane and Will. Even in 2004, it clearly would have voted for Kerry and probably voted for Gore as well. That seat is gone for Republicans, no spin about it.

The Cook PVI for the new CD-11 is D+5. Compare that to the current CD-10 that has a D+6 and was able to elect Kirk in Dem years 06 and 08, and unknown Dold over known Seals in 2010.

In 2004, Kerry won the new 11th by 49.9 to 48.4. Obama won with 61.1%, slightly less than his state average. In 2010 Brady beat Quinn 46.0 to 44.8. In an open contest it would be a lean D seat.

In terms of composition from current districts, 48% comes from the current IL 13, 26% from the current IL 14, and 26% from the current IL 11. That shifts if you consider where the votes come from. In 2008, 56% of the vote was from the current IL 13, 27% from current IL 11, and only 17% from current IL 14.

This doesn't look like a gimme for the Dems. A Foster (IL 14) vs Biggert (IL 13) matchup could be very competitive.

[muon2]

Hand out of your pants, krazen: Brad Schneider, who is also running in IL-10, raised $321k.

I think the more interesting information in the article is the suggestion that Carol Sente may run. She is mapped into the same IL House district as a popular GOP'er who has been able to hold Dem-leaning seats.

[muon2]

  I read about Carol Sente as well.  I don't know if I accept your reasoning though.  The Illinois GOP ran pretty hard against her in 2010 (recent appointee--little incumbency) and came up a little under 3% short.  I don't see where she has to fear Mathias as very very little of the new Il-59 comes from the old Il-53 that he represents.  He'd be the one running in a new district on unfamiliar turf having an uphill battle not her. 
  Ed Sullivan was also drawn into Sente's district too, but he only has to move a little bit west to run in the new 51st district.  Mathias could move south into the new Il-53, but then he would have to run against incumbent David Harris.
 
  To me the suggestion of Sente may be just noise.  I don't think the Dems are happy with the announced candidates so far and are casting about for somebody else.

Ill_ind

Sente's out and will just run for her House seat. It seems like she did give a serious look, however. The Dems still don't seem to have a strong candidate in a district they drew to bump out Dold.

[muon2]

How can they be in this together? Certainly, stronger Black districts means one of them has got to go? Or do they think Lipinski's hometurf is at least in Chicago and ought to have been given to them? In that case, they're basically right, but good luck in court.

It could be divided between them and a new southwest side Latino seat.

Luck on minority rights suits in court in the 7th circuit (which includes Chicago) is often predicated on having significant minority groups or leaders on one's side. Their reluctance to go in on the defense is a huge boost to the plaintiffs.

[muon2]

It actually didn't get more Republican, but slightly more Democratic.

The current district is D+3 and the new district is D+2 using the 2004 and 2008 presidential results. Keep in mind that Obama overperformed in IL as the favorite son, including parts of IL-12. The equivalent index in another state would probably be a couple points more R.

The district had to add population and areas just north and east could have been added as more reliably Dem. However, since there was a strong incumbent in Costello the district was set at D+2, while those areas I mentioned were used to make the new IL-13 which comes up as D+1. The possibly of a dummymander now looms if they lack a strong candidate or 2012 proves to be another GOP-favoring election.

[muon2]

Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.

Compared to similar areas in the Mid-South he did. Many of those areas trended away from the Dems compared to 2004.

[muon2]

Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.

Compared to similar areas in the Mid-South he did. Many of those areas trended away from the Dems compared to 20122004.

The 2012 election happened already?

My bad. Thanks for the catch.

[muon2]

Obama didn't overperform in IL-12, he only got 2% more than Kerry did.

Compared to similar areas in the Mid-South he did. Many of those areas trended away from the Dems compared to 2004.

But isn't that a mirror image of Obama's overperformance in Illinois--a personal opposition that exceeds the partisan line?

My point is that without the connection between Obama and his home state, IL-12 would have had even lower performance for the Dems. The PVI there would probably not be D+2, but something closer to D+0.

[muon2]

Today was the first day for IL Congressional filing, delayed by a month by the court case. Tuesday is the only other day to file, but since signature collection has been underway for quite a while, most were ready to file today. Here's the lineup at the close of filing(bold for incumbents):

IL-1
D: Rush, Russell, Sims, Smith, Lodato, Bailey
R: Collins, Peloquin, Tillman

IL-2
D: Jackson, Halvorson
R: Taylor, Woodworth

IL-3
D: Lipinski, Baqai
R: Jones, Grabowski, Falvey

IL-4
D: Gutierrez, Zavala
R: Concepcion

IL-5
D: Quigley
R: Schmitt

IL-6
D: Coolidge, Petzel, Ritter, Yates
R: Roskam

IL-7
D: Conway, Davis

IL-8
D: Krishnamoorthi, Duckworth
R: Canfield, Evans, Walsh

IL-9
D: Schakowsky, Ribiero
R: Wolfe, Atanus

IL-10
D: Bavda, Schneider, Sheyman, Tree, Rutagwibira
R: Dold

IL-11
D: Foster, Hickey, Thomas
R: Biggert, Cunningham, Harris

IL-12
D: Harriman, Miller, Wiezer
R: Cook, Plummer, Kormos, Newman

IL-13
D: Gill, Goetten
R: Firsching, Johnson, Metzger

IL-14
D: Anderson, Farnick
R: Hultgren

IL-15
D: Michael
R: Shimkus

IL-16
R: Kinzinger, Manzullo

IL-17
D: Aguilar, Bustos, Gaulrapp
R: Schilling

IL-18
D: Waterworth, Woodmancy
R: Schock, Miller

[muon2]

Filing for the congressional primary is now closed. I've updated the previous post to reflect additions.

[muon2]

All the challenges have been processed and absentee voting starts on Feb 9 (early voting starts on Feb 27) Here's the updated list, with removed candidates.

Today was the first day for IL Congressional filing, delayed by a month by the court case. Tuesday is the only other day to file, but since signature collection has been underway for quite a while, most were ready to file today. Here's the lineup at the close of filing(bold for incumbents):

IL-1
D: Rush, Russell, Sims, Smith, Lodato, Bailey
R: Collins, Peloquin, Tillman

IL-2
D: Jackson, Halvorson
R: Taylor, Woodworth

IL-3
D: Lipinski, Baqai
R: Jones, Grabowski, Falvey

IL-4
D: Gutierrez, Zavala
R: Concepcion

IL-5
D: Quigley
R: Schmitt

IL-6
D: Coolidge, Petzel, Ritter, Yates
R: Roskam

IL-7
D: Conway, Davis

IL-8
D: Krishnamoorthi, Duckworth
R: Canfield, Evans, Walsh

IL-9
D: Schakowsky, Ribiero
R: Wolfe, Atanus

IL-10
D: Bavda, Schneider, Sheyman, Tree, Rutagwibira
R: Dold

IL-11
D: Foster, Hickey, Thomas
R: Biggert, Cunningham, Harris

IL-12
D: Harriman, Miller, Wiezer
R: Cook, Plummer, Kormos, Newman

IL-13
D: Gill, Goetten
R: Firsching, Johnson, Metzger

IL-14
D: Anderson, Farnick
R: Hultgren

IL-15
D: Michael
R: Shimkus

IL-16
R: Kinzinger, Manzullo

IL-17
D: Aguilar, Bustos, Gaulrapp
R: Schilling

IL-18
D: Waterworth, Woodmancy
R: Schock, Miller

[muon2]

All the challenges have been processed and absentee voting starts on Feb 9 (early voting starts on Feb 27) Here's the updated list, with removed candidates.

IL-4
D: Gutierrez, Zavala
R: Concepcion

Lol. Congratulations on your reelection, Congressman Gutierrez (does Illinois even allow write-ins?)

Write-in candidates must register 61 days before the election. That deadline has passed for the primary.

[muon2]

But there could be any for the General?

Sure. Independents can file in June, but they need a lot of signatures, and you can't use ones that voted in a partisan primary or signed a partisan petition for the primary. The GOP could slate someone who would have to go get signatures as well. Write-ins can file up to 61 days before the election.

[muon2]

  Kane County Clerk Jack Cunningham was placed back on the Il-11 GOP ballot by the courts.

Ill_Ind

My list above is now corrected accordingly.

[muon2]

Here is the post-primary field (incumbent bold). There is still the possibility of party slating and independent filing in May and June.

IL-1
D: Rush
R: Peloquin

IL-2
D: Jackson
R: Woodworth

IL-3
D: Lipinski
R: Grabowski

IL-4
D: Gutierrez

IL-5
D: Quigley
R: Schmitt

IL-6
D: Coolidge
R: Roskam

IL-7
D: Davis

IL-8
D: Duckworth
R: Walsh

IL-9
D: Schakowsky
R: Wolfe

IL-10
D: Schneider
R: Dold

IL-11
D: Foster
R: Biggert

IL-12
D: Harriman
R: Plummer

IL-13
D: Gill (pending certification over Goetten)
R: Johnson

IL-14
D: Anderson
R: Hultgren

IL-15
D: Michael
R: Shimkus

IL-16
R: Kinzinger

IL-17
D: Bustos
R: Schilling

IL-18
D: Waterworth
R: Schock

[muon2]

With Johnson's imminent retirement announcement, the GOP bench is warming up for IL-13. The replacement on the ballot is made by a weighed vote of the county GOP chairs. There are a lot of calls being made now to winnow the field of replacements should the announcement become official.

[muon2]

With Johnson's imminent retirement announcement, the GOP bench is warming up for IL-13. The replacement on the ballot is made by a weighed vote of the county GOP chairs. There are a lot of calls being made now to winnow the field of replacements should the announcement become official.

What do you think the PVI baseline is in Illinois, Muon2?  55.7% two party Obama vote downstate, and 58.7% in Chicagoland (outside heavily black/Hispanic CD's not in play)?

It's hard to say. As you note downstate is certainly different than Chicagoland, but IL-13 is a string of university towns and that might give it a more suburban feel for its PVI base.

[muon2]

With Johnson's imminent retirement announcement, the GOP bench is warming up for IL-13. The replacement on the ballot is made by a weighed vote of the county GOP chairs. There are a lot of calls being made now to winnow the field of replacements should the announcement become official.

The primary returns are not certified yet, so Johnson can't withdraw until that happens. The parties do not elect county chairs until April 18 when the newly elected committeemen will meet. Those chairs (14 counties for IL-13) will vote for a ballot replacement.

[muon2]

Yesterday was the deadline for parties to fill vacancies in their primary ballot, aka "slating". Independents and new parties filed by June 25. This is the updated list (bold for incumbents, italics for slated).

IL-1
D: Rush
R: Peloquin

IL-2
D: Jackson
R: Woodworth
I: Lewis

IL-3
D: Lipinski
R: Grabowski

IL-4
D: Gutierrez
R: Concepcion

IL-5
D: Quigley
R: Schmitt
G: Wade

IL-6
D: Coolidge
R: Roskam

IL-7
D: Davis
R: Zak
I: Monaghan

IL-8
D: Duckworth
R: Walsh

IL-9
D: Schakowsky
R: Wolfe
I: Shioura

IL-10
D: Schneider
R: Dold

IL-11
D: Foster
R: Biggert

IL-12
D: Enyart
R: Plummer
C: Stufflebeam
G: Bradshaw

IL-13
D: Gill
R: Davis
I: Hartman

IL-14
D: Anderson
R: Hultgren

IL-15
D: Michael
R: Shimkus
C: Pearcy

IL-16
D: Rohl
R: Kinzinger

IL-17
D: Bustos
R: Schilling
I: Reyes

IL-18
D: Waterworth
R: Schock

[muon2]

I've updated my earlier post with independents, Greens, and Constitution candidates.

[muon2]

Walsh is the most vulnerable Pub incumbent in the House in the nation going away. Nobody else comes close.

Roscoe Bartlett comes pretty close. 

Yes, true.

But I don't picture Bartlett putting up the same fight that Walsh will.