Illinois Congressional Jujitsu

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Walsh is also an outsider, and most of the ILL GOP establishment is probably counting the minutes till he is gone. Thus I doubt you have a deal between three GOP Reps involving him. You might have a deal where Hultgren gets 14, Roskam 8 and a State Senator or Rep gets 6, but I don't see Walsh being a part of such an insider GOP arrangement. Maybe I am wrong, but I just don't see it.

Right now the GOP's best chance to fight back against the new arrangement is to ensure Johnson is reelected in the 13th. Next down would be Dold winning the 10th again. Holding the 8th is probably bottom of the list.

Lastly, aren't we talking about the ILL GOP? Their primary strategy for the last decade has been to be defeated.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Roskam is also in the Republican leadership (chief deputy whip), so I doubt he'd want a more Democratic district.

Almost forgot that, and he does have a 97% ACU score, as well. I don't see him taking the plunge in a D+5 (?). We should never forget that we are dealing with politicians here and they are usually a very selfish bunch.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I can see Dold, Biggert and Schilling putting up somewhat decent fights in their seats.

Walsh is a horse of a completely different color. If this were someone like Kirk Dillard, I would concede him too, but the guy is male version of Michelle Bachmann in a seat that gave Obama what, 56, 58% of the vote?

Plus I wouldn't use the 2010 Gubernatorial race as an adequate comparison for several reasons. The North versus South component is only the most obvious concern, not to mention the differential in turnout and the big no no of translating Gubernatorial results onto federal races.