Illinois Congressional Jujitsu

[krazen1211]

The new 15th is mostly old Shimkus turf.

Shimkus will just take the 56% McCain district and nicely park his butt there for 10 years. A moderate like Johnson is going to be forced into the Springfield district, which he should win easily enough.

No way Shimkus loses a primary. He's already won 1 head to head battle against an imcumbent.

[krazen1211]

The new 15th is mostly old Shimkus turf.

Shimkus will just take the 56% McCain district and nicely park his butt there for 10 years. A moderate like Johnson is going to be forced into the Springfield district, which he should win easily enough.

No way Shimkus loses a primary. He's already won 1 head to head battle against an imcumbent.

What makes Johnson a moderate?

Off the top of my head, his opposition to the Afghanistan troop surge and his oil drilling opposition.

[krazen1211]

http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/5656436-418/dems-jockey-over-who-will-run-in-proposed-congressional-districts.html

The new map of the 11th district includes Burr Ridge, where insurance broker John Atkinson lives. Atkinson, though, has already raised $500,000 to launch a primary challenge in the 3rd district against Rep. Dan Lipinski, a conservative Democrat from the Southwest Side.

“I have serious policy differences with Dan Lipinski — I would prefer someone in that seat who wanted to work with the president,” Atkinson said Saturday.




Can't imagine they would seriously allow him do this, but it would be awesome if they did.

[krazen1211]

Us Republicans need to STFU. We saw this coming in Illinois. Take it like a man.

We will do the same thing in Texas, Ohio, PA, and N. Carolina, so chill.

Past tense now, it looks like. Illinois Dems claimed what they think are 13 out of 18 seats and Texas Republicans did the same, doubled.

[krazen1211]

Dold is running in the 10th.

His first potential opponent? A 25 year old community organizer.

http://glenview.patch.com/articles/waukegan-democrat-is-early-dold-challenger

[krazen1211]

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_146/top-5-member-vs-member-battles-206842-1.html?pos=hln

Kinzinger would lose if he ran for re-election in Jackson’s predominantly black and urban district. He could move to run in the redrawn Democratic-leaning 11th district southwest of Chicago, but Republicans say seven-term Rep. Judy Biggert (R) is already eyeing that seat.


Great news. Biggert is a solid shot at that 11th.

[krazen1211]

I'll give Kinzinger credit for being anti-Gaddafi unlike most Republicans, but I'd rather have both him and Biggert gone. And that's what's likely to happen. A very dull backbencher like Biggert isn't a solid shot for a seat that's about D+8.

It's not even close to that if you include Bush/Kerry results. GOP incumbents outperformed McCain by about 10 points in 2008.

And Biggert has a history of tough wins. She did beat Roskam after all.

[krazen1211]

Dold is running in the 10th.

His first potential opponent? A 25 year old community organizer.

http://glenview.patch.com/articles/waukegan-democrat-is-early-dold-challenger

And here we are:

http://highlandpark.patch.com/articles/sheyman-raises-almost-110k-for-congressional-run

Waukegan community organizer Ilya Sheyman announced Friday he raised nearly $110,000 in his campaign for the Democratic nomination to oppose Rep. Robert Dold (R-Kenilworth) in the 2012 race for the 10th Congressional District seat.

He has been an organizer with both Democracy for America and MoveOn.org.





Great news for Dold, if a community organizer wins the nomination.

[krazen1211]

http://southtownstar.suntimes.com/7423387-522/halvorson-to-challenge-jackson-in-2nd.html

Former U.S. Rep. Debbie Halvorson said Friday she has filed a statement of candidacy with the the Federal Election Commission in the 2nd congressional district of Illinois, a seat held by fellow Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr.

[krazen1211]

http://southtownstar.suntimes.com/7423387-522/halvorson-to-challenge-jackson-in-2nd.html

Former U.S. Rep. Debbie Halvorson said Friday she has filed a statement of candidacy with the the Federal Election Commission in the 2nd congressional district of Illinois, a seat held by fellow Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_33/-208926-1.html?pos=opolh

Reps. Jesse Jackson Jr., Bobby Rush and Danny Davis have concerns about whether the new map adheres to the Voting Rights Act. The trio is also hesitant to help Democrats defend the map in court against a GOP lawsuit.

Some Illinois Democrats speculated Jackson’s frustration over the new map could be a product of his own political predicament. His new Congressional district on Chicago’s South Side includes new urban and exurban territory.

Former Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D), who served one term and was defeated in 2010, expressed interest recently in challenging Jackson. Halvorson and Jackson have a long history of being at odds with each other, and their relationship is notoriously acrimonious.


Hahahaha!

[krazen1211]

If Jackson can't win there, maybe he just isn't a very good congressman. Maybe he should just resign.

Perhaps he is afraid of another black person entering the race allowing the district to be captured by a white.

[krazen1211]

Maybe it'll be captured by an eskimo? Why does it even matter?

To Mr. Jackson? Probably because he doesn't want to have any competition for his seat. His friend Bobby Rush was really upset when a guy named Barack Obama tried to primary him for his district.

[krazen1211]

To Mr. Jackson? Probably because he doesn't want to have any competition for his seat. His friend Bobby Rush was really upset when a guy named Barack Obama tried to primary him for his district.

There aren't really many congressmen who want to have primary challenges.

Precisely, yes. And the best way to avoid that is to change the map; Joe Pitts is attempting to do exactly that in PA.

[krazen1211]

Longtime Congressman Jerry Costello (D-Illinois) will not seek re-election in 2012.



Hmm. Interesting. Kirk and Brady of course got about 50% here.

[krazen1211]

Dold is running in the 10th.

His first potential opponent? A 25 year old community organizer.

http://glenview.patch.com/articles/waukegan-democrat-is-early-dold-challenger

The community organizer gets the endorsement(s).

http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/1011/Progressive_trio_backs_Sheyman_.html



Hopefully the nutter can win the primary here.

[krazen1211]

Read elsewhere that Biggert and Foster are both about even in internals for both parties.

Certainly the easiest hold of the 4 for the GOP.

[krazen1211]

Read elsewhere that Biggert and Foster are both about even in internals for both parties.

Do you have a link? That's intriguing, but I can't find it with Google.

No direct link other than what I read on RRH, which came from 'sources'. Biggert is of course the strongest incumbent in the weakest district and has a reputation of being a 'moderate'. She was certainly attacked by Peter Roskam as such in 1998.

[krazen1211]

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2012/01/illinois_house_ten_poll_puts_s.html

In the north suburban Illinois Tenth House Democratic primary contest, a new poll taken by a group backing Ilya Sheyman shows Sheyman ahead by two points of Brad Schneider but in a statistical tie.






Spectacular. Sheyman is of course Manan Trivedi but without the respectable Iraq War Physician background.

[krazen1211]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2012/02/progressive-sheyman-up-with-first-ad-114259.html

Illinois Democrat Ilya Sheyman goes up with the first ad Monday of the competitive 10th Congressional District primary, branding himself as the "progressive" in the race to face freshman Rep. Bob Dold.




Lol. Good luck!

The American dream is apparently working for Moveon.org.

[krazen1211]

Moveon Progressive Sheyman is accusing Schneider of being a closet Republican.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73830.html



Bob Dold is certainly hoping for the nutter Sheyman!

[krazen1211]

http://capitolfax.com/2012/06/25/dems-go-with-enyart-but-did-they-do-themselves-any-favors/

Enyart has never run for anything. Plummer has raised a bunch of money, the US Chamber is pumping cash into his effort, and he has a ground game. Enyart has nothing. Plummer will win more votes than a usual Republican would in Madison County because he’s from there and his father is very bigtime. And the Democrats really needed somebody who could appeal to the more “southern” counties outside the Metro East. I don’t think they did that here. Enyart is an unknown, untested candidate up against a battle-tested, well-funded opponent.




The GOP is well prepared to break down the gerrymander and retain a majority of Illinois House seats.