Illinois Congressional Jujitsu

[ill ind]

  God Bless Phil Hare

  Lost 75 lbs, went off meds for high blood pressure and diabetes, and now gets to spend time with his grand daughter.  There's one guy who probably is thankful every day that he lost reelection!!!

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  Frerichs putting himself out of the Il-13 race leaves Dr. David Gill who has expressed an interest.  Problem is that he is already a 3 time loser having lost to Johnson in 2004, 2006, and 2010.  However, the district is quite a bit more Democrat friendly than the present Il-15, but if the Dems can not do better than a 4th time retread, then I expect Johnson to be reelected handily.
  Also, Frerichs' increased margin in 2010 had more to do with the looniness of the GOP's candidate (tossing a great pickup opportunity out the window) than anything Frerichs did or did not do.  I believe the GOP organization refused to even endorse their own candidate in that race.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  I'm kind of suprised that Jay Hoffman would opt for running for Congress, when his former State House Seat was nicely remapped to help his comeback odds.

Ill_ind

[ill ind]

  Dr. David Gill has announced his intentions to run in Il-13 as a Democrat.  This marks the 4th time that he has attempted to unseat incumbent Timothy Johnson.

  Tammy Duckworth who ran in Il-6 back in 2006 when it was an open seat is now running for the open seat in Il-8.  This sets up a primary between her and Raja Krishnamoorthi, which could become very very expensive and very very competitive.  I've also read about a scenario in which Peter Roskam runs in Il-8, Joe Walsh in Il-6, and Randy Hultgren in Il-14.  This keeps incumbent GOP congressmen from having to run against each other.  If Roskam runs in Il-08 and Duckworth wins the primary, then we would have a rerun of the narrow 2006 race in a somewhat different district, although about 50% of it is territory from the present Il-6.

  Cheryl Bustos has announced her candidacy for the Dem nomination in Il-17.  That makes 3 candidates running for chance to take on bobby Shilling.  Bustos, Goerge Gaulrap the losing candidate in Il-16 in 2010 and Il State Senator David Koehler with several others mulling over the race.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  Johnny Longtorso

  It would make sense if Roskam ran in the new Il-8 because he has more longevity and better name recognition than Walsh.  Not to mention that the area in Il-8 is about 2/3 from the present Il-6 that Roskam presently represents.  Daily Kos and the others are blowing smoke up your butt if you believe that the new Il-8 is a gimmy for the Dems.  I'd say the same for the new Il-11 and new Il-10 as well.  None of them are the gimmy seats that a whole lot of the left wing has been pimping.  They are all going to be competitive--possibly all with GOP incumbents if Roskam runs in the new Il-8 and Biggert in the new Il-11.  Roskam is a good campaigner, and has recognition in the vast majority of Il-8.  Walsh is a newbie and would do better in a solidly GOP district until he is better known.  None of this is for sure, but it certainly makes sense if the GOP is going to attempt to minimize its losses in Il.

  just my $.02--and that's about all its worth.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  I read about Carol Sente as well.  I don't know if I accept your reasoning though.  The Illinois GOP ran pretty hard against her in 2010 (recent appointee--little incumbency) and came up a little under 3% short.  I don't see where she has to fear Mathias as very very little of the new Il-59 comes from the old Il-53 that he represents.  He'd be the one running in a new district on unfamiliar turf having an uphill battle not her. 
  Ed Sullivan was also drawn into Sente's district too, but he only has to move a little bit west to run in the new 51st district.  Mathias could move south into the new Il-53, but then he would have to run against incumbent David Harris.
 
  To me the suggestion of Sente may be just noise.  I don't think the Dems are happy with the announced candidates so far and are casting about for somebody else.

Ill_ind

[ill ind]

  And on the same day, the Chicago Sun Times breaks the story that Walsh owes $117,000 in back child support.  (Good old 'family values' strikes again)  Call Obama a liar and scream over and over on cable TV about how you will not compromise on your financial values, but all the while not taking care of your own. Despicable!!!
  Walsh rode the perfect storm to victory last year, but it looks like one and done for him.  Wonder what Club for Growth is thinking about their endorsement today.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  I'm guessing that Jackson's comments hinge on 2 things--1 much more prevelant than the other:

1.) Fear of the prospective challenge from Debbie Halvorsen.  Jackson's district is 54% AA which is the highest percentage of the three incidentally.  However his reputation has been pretty tarnished by his involvement with former Governor Blagojevich in the appointment of a replacement Senator for Obama.  AA voters doesn't necessarily add up the votes for an AA candidate either.  Rahm Emanuel's strongest performance in the last Chicago mayoral election came in the AA wards versus Carol Mosely Braun who was backed by alot of the establishment AA leadership and wound up with a miserable vote total.

2.) And I think the one that carries the most weight---The upcoming huge fight over the Chicago Ward remap.  The AA population in Chicago declined by 17% in the last 10 years.  However, AA establishment political leaders are saying that if they lose more than 1 AA majority ward (Chicago has 50 wards) then they will pursue leagal action.  JJJ's wife is the 7th ward aldeman and could easily be remapped into a ward with another incumbent.
  The Latino and Asian populations were the only ones to increase. 
  There was a very contentious court fight after the 1990 remap in which AA leaders wanted one more majority ward drawn.  They didn't get their ward, and the whole court battle only changed a few precincts on the map--and the AA candidate won the ward that wasn't majority AA that establishment leaders wanted anyways.
  In my opinion this is the opening salvo in a game of high stakes poker over the Chicago ward remap.  Jackson, Rush, and Davis could care less about the Congressional remap which pretty much perpetuates their place at the public trough for as long as they choose.



  Ill-Ind

[ill ind]

  Costello's seat will be interesting to watch.  He probably would have been reelected, but a D successor faces the challenge of the fact that in the recent remap Jefferson (McCain by 11%) and the remainder of Williamson (McCain by 15%) were added to the district making it more Republican.  Bet the people who drew the map weren't anticipating this!!

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

   Debbie Halvosen is set to announce tomorrow that she will indeed challenge Jesse Jackson Jr in the Democratic primary in Il-2.  This will get interesting--a real barn burner-- especially if Aanthony Beale (Chicago 6th ward alderaman) also jumps into the race as rumblings have been going on.  No wonder JJJ is nervous about the remap.
  This race will be over in March after the primary however as governor Quinn got over 71% of the vote here vs Bill Brady back in 2010.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  In other Illinois Congressional election news former State Rep Jay C. Hoffman who was going to run for the Democratic nomination in the new 13th district against Tim Johnsod decided to drop out and run for the Illinois 113th Assembly District instead.  113 was 52%-48% Dem in the last gubenetorial election, so he stands a much better chance of winning this race than he did the congressional one.

  Dist 2 JJJ --Ouch! He's in a heck of a pickle.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  Kane County Clerk Jack Cunningham was placed back on the Il-11 GOP ballot by the courts.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  Rodney Davis--former staffer for John Shimkus is the GOP choice in Il-13.

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  The Democrats nominated Wanda Rohl to run in Il-16. 
  Illinois has a proceedure where the party can nominate somebody to fill a slot that had no nominee chosen in the March 20 primary.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  Brad Harriman has now dropped out as the Democratic candidate in Il-12.

  A sure bet 6 or so months ago to have Jerry Costello re-elected (the district was made more GOP freindly because it was believe Costello was popular enough to still get reelected) is fast becoming a Democratic dummymander!!!

Ooof!!

Ill_ind

[ill ind]

Dr Scholl

  Adding on the remainder of Williamson County (Mc Cain 56-42 over Obama) and Jefferson County (McCain 54-34 over Obama) did not make the district more Democratic--if anything the district has been made more GOP friendly.  Also, southern Illinois (with the exception of East St Louis in this district) has become like the southern states in shifting away from the Democratic Party--except for incumbents like Jerry Costello who managed to hang on because of their personal poularity.

Ill_ind

[ill ind]

  The district voted 53-47 in favor of Bill Brady over Pat Quinn 2 years ago--if anything it's a swing district.  GOP candidate Jason Plummer has a boatload of cash and very good name recognition having been the GOP's Lite-Gov candidate in 2010.  Harriman was hardly the clear favorite.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  My 'gut' is that the Dems knew they were in a crapload of trouble in this race, and found a 'legal' way to get Harriman out and a stronger candidate in.

Ill_ind

[ill ind]

  When the Dems get their act together and name a candidate in CD-12, there will be 2 major party candidates in all 18 CDs.
  The sad part is that the number of actual 'races' is quite low:

8,10,11,17 will be the closest probably
13 could be mildly interesting.

The Dems really dropped the ball downstate with 12 along with the fact that they won't even claim their own candidate Michael in 15

The rest are pretty humdrum as a result of the gerrymandering of Illinois CDs.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  The Democrats named retired National Guard General Bill Enyart as their candidate facing Jason Plummer in Il-12.

  Today is also the closing date for filing as an independent or 3rd party candidate.  Several have filed so far, but how many stand after all the objections have been heard remains to be seen.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  To say that Walsh.Dold, Biggert and Schilling are all toast is ludicrous.

The percentages from the 2010 election for Governor show this.  The Dems won that election by the way.

           Dem percent       GOP percent

1            76.42%                23.58%
2            76.99%                23.01%
3            51.87%                38.13%
4            74.50%                25.50%
5            60.40%                39.60%
6            37.44%                62.56%
7            84.16%                15.84%
8            47.57%                52.43%
9            60.06%                39.94%
10          50.37%                49.63%
11          49.09%                50.91%
12          46.93%                53.07%
13          40.02%                59.98%
14          36.73%                63.27%
15          28.37%                71.63%
16          35.38%                64.72%
17          42.43%                57.57%
18          27.88%                72.12%

 To me it looks like there will be quite a few close elections.  I believe that using Obama vs McCain figures is inacurate because Obama is running for reelection and doesn't appear to have the coat tails---even in Illinois--he once had.  Obama on top of the ticket may actually hurt more than it helps in District 12.

  Keep in mind also that Madison County isn't all in District 12 either.  The portion that is in 12 went Democratic in 2010 52.85% to 47.15% and represented 32% of the county's vote.  Of the remaining vote 22% is in District 15 and went Republican 69.2% to 31.8% and 42% is in District 13 and voted Republican 60.31% to 39.69%.  How much pull Plummer's 'big wig' father has in Western Madison County  remains to be seen as he lives in Edwardsville which is in districts 13 and 15.

  What is disconcerting for Dems is that even though he was favorite son--Obama in 2008 got a lower percentage of the vote than Al Gore in 2000 in 7 of the 12 counties in District 12.

  Walsh,Dold, Biggert and Schilling are hardly toast.  Those will be very close elections, but to write them off is a big mistake.

Ill Ind