why doesn't Minnesota vote like California or New York?

[freepcrusher]

It seems that almost every presidential election, Minnesota has the highest turnout. Usually having a high turnout will mean huge democratic victories. But it seems the democrats tend to underachieve there. Why do you think that is?

[Stranger in a strange land]

1) Fundies
2) Relatively few minorities

[freepcrusher]

1) Fundies
2) Relatively few minorities

um no. Minnesota is not really in the bible belt. Sure you might have a few evangelical types but most of Minnesota is old school Lutheran types.

[patrick1]

It is usually a bad idea to make inferences like this in states separated by thousands of miles with vastly different political histories and demographics. MN is less urban, has fewer minorities, and generally more R suburbs. As you will see below the white population in these states voted nearly identically.

[freepcrusher]

so if Minnesota had areas like Boyle Heights or Watts, then Minnesota would probably be a 60-40 Dem state?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

so if Minnesota had areas like Boyle Heights or Watts, then Minnesota would probably be a 60-40 Dem state?

Uh, we do (I live in an 89% Obama precinct). We just have a lot less minorities overall.

If you doubled our minority population, we probably would be a 60-40 state.

[freepcrusher]

so if Minnesota had areas like Boyle Heights or Watts, then Minnesota would probably be a 60-40 Dem state?

Uh, we do (I live in an 89% Obama precinct). We just have a lot less minorities overall.

If you doubled our minority population, we probably would be a 60-40 state.

Uh you obviously don't know what Boyle Heights or Watts is then. Boyle Heights is basically the mexican barrio area of LA and Watts is the black ghetto of LA. But I guess, you're probably agreeing with me in the below sentence.

[SmokingCricket]

Would Bachmann be elected in New York or California? Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see it.

One person does not an example make, but she would serve as a representative to a large portion of people.

[Stranger in a strange land]

1) Fundies
2) Relatively few minorities

um no. Minnesota is not really in the bible belt. Sure you might have a few evangelical types but most of Minnesota is old school Lutheran types.

*facepalm* Just because it's not in the Bible Belt doesn't mean Fundies don't exist or aren't a significant voting bloc. Sioux County, Iowa isn't in the Bible Belt either.

Would Bachmann be elected in New York or California? Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see it.

One person does not an example make, but she would serve as a representative to a large portion of people.

There are probably still a few very conservative places in SoCal where she could get elected, but I'm not sure. She couldn't get elected anywhere in New York.

[freepcrusher]

she could win the 2nd, 4th, 21st, 22nd, 40th, 41st, 42nd, 49th, and 52nd in California, but probably couldn't win any district in NY.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

so if Minnesota had areas like Boyle Heights or Watts, then Minnesota would probably be a 60-40 Dem state?

Uh, we do (I live in an 89% Obama precinct). We just have a lot less minorities overall.

If you doubled our minority population, we probably would be a 60-40 state.

Uh you obviously don't know what Boyle Heights or Watts is then. Boyle Heights is basically the mexican barrio area of LA and Watts is the black ghetto of LA. But I guess, you're probably agreeing with me in the below sentence.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips,_Minneapolis

[WillK]

she could win the 2nd, 4th, 21st, 22nd, 40th, 41st, 42nd, 49th, and 52nd in California, but probably couldn't win any district in NY.

She could probably win several in NY also.  For example, NY 19th elected a Bachman-clone  last year and  NY 3rd keeps reelecting Peter King, even though he is a moron. 

[SmokingCricket]

Fair enough. Didn't know that about CA and NY.

[Nichlemn]

It is usually a bad idea to make inferences like this in states separated by thousands of miles with vastly different political histories and demographics. MN is less urban, has fewer minorities, and generally more R suburbs. As you will see below the white population in these states voted nearly identically.

Those Oregon and Washington numbers don't make sense considering each were about 57% Obama overall. Republican voting minorities or just sampling error?

[Dgov]

It seems that almost every presidential election, Minnesota has the highest turnout. Usually having a high turnout will mean huge democratic victories. But it seems the democrats tend to underachieve there. Why do you think that is?

High Turnout doesn't mean Democratic Stronghold.  All those heavily R Suburbs around the country usually have high turnout but still vote Solid R.  Minnesota's high turnout comes more from its demographics (heavily white, with lots of middle class Scandinavians and Germans) than in its actual political preferences.

What I think you're referring to is higher turnout usually benefits democrats.  In States like California and New York, the people who generally don't vote even though they can are usually more Liberal/Democratic than those who do.  Therefore, increasing turnout is good for the Democrats, as it makes the overall electorate more Liberal.  States like Minnesota however, have such high turnout normally that this effect is basically inconsequential, since they're much closer to their natural voting ceiling (i.e. total people who can realistically vote) than states like California.

[tpfkaw]

Those Oregon and Washington numbers don't make sense considering each were about 57% Obama overall. Republican voting minorities or just sampling error?

CNN exit poll says OR whites voted 57% Obama, and WA whites voted 55% Obama.

AL: 10
MS: 11
LA: 14
GA: 23
SC: 26
TX: 26
OK: 29
AR: 30
UT: 31
WY: 32
AK: 33
ID: 33
TN: 34
NC: 35
KY: 36
NE: 39
VA: 39
AZ: 40
KS: 40
SD: 41
WV: 41
FL: 42
MO: 42
NM: 42
ND: 42
US: 43
IN: 45
MT: 45
NV: 45
OH: 46
MD: 47
PA: 48
NJ: 49
CO: 50
CT: 51
IL: 51
IA: 51
MI: 51
CA: 52
NY: 52
DE: 53
MN: 53
NH: 54
WI: 54
WA: 55
OR: 57
ME: 58
RI: 58
MA: 59
VT: 68
HI: 70
DC: 86

[memphis]

MD is the obvious standout to me on that map. No way was the white vote anywhere near 56% Obama. That would make the overall results close to 70% for Obama.

[Dgov]

MD is the obvious standout to me on that map. No way was the white vote anywhere near 56% Obama. That would make the overall results close to 70% for Obama.

Not to mention that Maryland's electorate is less than 70% White now, so unless their Blacks vote way more R than usual (given that the state includes Prince George's county and Baltimore, thats not likely), Maryland Whites even barely voting for Obama would mean McCain got less than 35% in the State

[Smash255]

she could win the 2nd, 4th, 21st, 22nd, 40th, 41st, 42nd, 49th, and 52nd in California, but probably couldn't win any district in NY.

She could probably win several in NY also.  For example, NY 19th elected a Bachman-clone  last year and  NY 3rd keeps reelecting Peter King, even though he is a moron. 

Bachmann wouldn't win in NY-3, I doubt she would have a chance in NY-19 either.

[Stranger in a strange land]

she could win the 2nd, 4th, 21st, 22nd, 40th, 41st, 42nd, 49th, and 52nd in California, but probably couldn't win any district in NY.

She could probably win several in NY also.  For example, NY 19th elected a Bachman-clone  last year and  NY 3rd keeps reelecting Peter King, even though he is a moron. 

Bachmann wouldn't win in NY-3, I doubt she would have a chance in NY-19 either.

NY-3 has a cultural revulsion against people like Bachmann.

[Badger]

she could win the 2nd, 4th, 21st, 22nd, 40th, 41st, 42nd, 49th, and 52nd in California, but probably couldn't win any district in NY.

She could probably win several in NY also.  For example, NY 19th elected a Bachman-clone  last year and  NY 3rd keeps reelecting Peter King, even though he is a moron. 

Bachmann wouldn't win in NY-3, I doubt she would have a chance in NY-19 either.

NY-3 has a cultural revulsion against people like Bachmann.

In fairness, Bachmann barely gets elected in MN.