PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[Keystone Phil]

The real debate should be, given Rendell's vulnerable looking numbers, why the Republicans weren't able to recruit anyone better than a washed-up football star to oppose him.

You obviously aren't aware that that "washed up" football player is well liked in the western part of the state. Are there stronger candidates than Swann though? Yes, I believe so. Why isn't the PA GOP looking for a stronger candidate? Because they fall into the same category as some PA Dems. They see Rendell as an unbeatable force. I wish they would wake up, too.

[danwxman]

Candidate Rendell strong despite weak job rating
3 possible contenders trail governor in poll 20 months before vote
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
BY PETER L. DeCOURSEY
Of The Patriot-News

Gov. Ed Rendell faces questions about his job performance but still leads all potential opponents by double digits, according to the new Keystone Poll.

However, only 39 percent of 531 Pennsylvanians surveyed said Rendell was doing an excellent or good job. More than 20 months before the 2006 election, 57 percent said his job performance was fair or poor.

Forty-five percent said Rendell deserved re-election, while 43 percent said it was time for a change, according to the poll.
            

On the positive side, Rendell "has the highest favorable ratings of any statewide politician, at 48 percent favorable, with only 28 percent viewing him unfavorably," said poll director G. Terry Madonna.

"But his job numbers are not strong," Madonna said. "They are consistently 15 to 20 points behind where [former Gov. Tom] Ridge's were. But his opponents aren't well-known.

"While the governor is still the favorite and the front-runner, there is a note of caution here for his re-election. This could be a very interesting gubernatorial election."

Rendell led former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton 47 percent to 37 percent. He enjoyed 30-point leads over former Pittsburgh Steelers football star Lynn Swann -- 59 percent to 29 percent -- and state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola, R-Dauphin, 53 percent to 23 percent.

In a primary matchup among the three Republican candidates, half of those surveyed said they were undecided. Of the three, Scranton led with 25 percent, followed by Swann at 17 percent and Piccola at 8 percent.

Piccola and Scranton say they are committed to seeking their party's nomination for governor in 2006. Swann says he is exploring a bid for the GOP nomination.

"Bill Scranton is the only challenger who put the governor's numbers under 50, which is important," said Mike Devanney, Scranton's campaign manager. "And his vote totals will grow as more people hear Bill Scranton's message for Pennsylvania."

The Piccola and Swann campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.

Rendell has said the election will be a referendum on the incumbent. He has professed confidence that voters, when reminded of his record, will re-elect him.

Polls show repeated GOP attacks on Rendell are denting his popularity, particularly outside the five-county Philadelphia region, where he is strongest politically.

Piccola and Scranton are making repeated attacks on the fact that Rendell promised prompt and significant property tax reductions in his 2002 campaign.

They argue he delivered neither, because Rendell has said homeowners will not receive property tax reductions from slot-machine gambling until 2007.

PETER L. DeCOURSEY: 783-5196 or pdecoursey@pnco.com

[danwxman]

So, Rendell now has the highest favorable ratings of any statewide politician. One less thing Phil can claim about Santorum.

[Jake]

So, Rendell now has the highest favorable ratings of any statewide politician. One less thing Phil can claim about Santorum.

Um, that's been the case for about a month now.  Rendell had 54% and Santorum had 53%. 

[danwxman]

So, Rendell now has the highest favorable ratings of any statewide politician. One less thing Phil can claim about Santorum.

Um, that's been the case for about a month now.  Rendell had 54% and Santorum had 53%. 

Oh, did you make Phil aware of that?

[Jake]

So, Rendell now has the highest favorable ratings of any statewide politician. One less thing Phil can claim about Santorum.

Um, that's been the case for about a month now.  Rendell had 54% and Santorum had 53%. 

Oh, did you make Phil aware of that?

Yeah, he made me aware of it

[Keystone Phil]

So, Rendell now has the highest favorable ratings of any statewide politician. One less thing Phil can claim about Santorum.

Um, that's been the case for about a month now.  Rendell had 54% and Santorum had 53%. 

Oh, did you make Phil aware of that?

No. According to the Quinnipiac polls, Santorum still has better numbers than Rendell. Now I know you pointed out that one poll with Rendell doing great but what about the one I posted earlier today? They showed Rendell with 39% approval rating. 45% said they wanted him for four more years while 43% say it's time for a change.

[Keystone Phil]

Awwwwwww. I thought Eddie was so popular guys...

From grassrootspa.com

The survey finds Gov. Rendell with less than intimidating numbers for an incumbent governor. His job approval rating is 39 percent, compared to 56 percent for Tom Ridge at a slightly later point in his first term.

And when asked if Rendell deserved re-election, 45 percent said yes, while 43 percent said it's time for a change. As a rule, pollsters regard less than 50 percent on that question a sign of trouble.
...
Madonna said Rendell's approval ratings are particularly weak in western Pennsylvania.

Here it is again, dan.

[Keystone Phil]

Awwwww, come on, dan. I know you saw my last couple of posts. What's going on? That extremely popular Ed Rendell has 45% saying "four more years" but 43% aren't going along with it. While I think the poll if probably off on the approval rating, it's likely that Eddie is only in the mid 40s when it comes to his approval.

Now keep telling yourself he's a lock. "Solid Dem." Good one!

[Moooooo]

Awwwww, come on, dan. I know you saw my last couple of posts. What's going on? That extremely popular Ed Rendell has 45% saying "four more years" but 43% aren't going along with it. While I think the poll if probably off on the approval rating, it's likely that Eddie is only in the mid 40s when it comes to his approval.

Now keep telling yourself he's a lock. "Solid Dem." Good one!

From what I have gathered and what you have said previous threads, Phil.  Rendell is a strong campaigner, good public speaker, and fairly charismatic.  Bascially he is at his best on the campaign trail.  From now until election day I can only see his numbers going up.  That isnt a good thing for the GOP candidates.

[danwxman]

Awwwww, come on, dan. I know you saw my last couple of posts. What's going on? That extremely popular Ed Rendell has 45% saying "four more years" but 43% aren't going along with it. While I think the poll if probably off on the approval rating, it's likely that Eddie is only in the mid 40s when it comes to his approval.

Now keep telling yourself he's a lock. "Solid Dem." Good one!

He's the most popular elected official in the state of Pennsylvania. He will have no serious opponent (nobody is going to be able to offer an alternative to those 43%). 45-43 seems pretty good to me right now...I'd expect Rendell to win back some support on the campaign trail and win by about 2-5 points. More if the Republican nominee is Piccola.

[Keystone Phil]

Awwwww, come on, dan. I know you saw my last couple of posts. What's going on? That extremely popular Ed Rendell has 45% saying "four more years" but 43% aren't going along with it. While I think the poll if probably off on the approval rating, it's likely that Eddie is only in the mid 40s when it comes to his approval.

Now keep telling yourself he's a lock. "Solid Dem." Good one!

He's the most popular elected official in the state of Pennsylvania. He will have no serious opponent (nobody is going to be able to offer an alternative to those 43%). 45-43 seems pretty good to me right now...I'd expect Rendell to win back some support on the campaign trail and win by about 2-5 points. More if the Republican nominee is Piccola.

He's the most popular elected official yet only 45% want to see him get re-elected and 43% don't? His approval ratings aren't great, his disapproval ratings are the highest and he's the most popular?

Now I'm not saying Rendell won't win. I've admitted in the past that he is the favored candidate and whoever the GOP candidate is, they will have to face an uphill battle. However, victory can still come to the Republican candidate. Rendell is not the lock you'd love to imagine. I'm glad you're realizing that now.

[Keystone Phil]

Team 88 is up and running!

http://lynnswannteam88.com/

[12th Doctor]

YEAHHHHHHHHHHH!

WOOHOO!

I'm about to piss my pants I'm so excited.

The Dems now have a choice: Casey or Rendell.

Unless the bottem falls out of the GOP campaign, they can't both be elected.

[Keystone Phil]

YEAHHHHHHHHHHH!

WOOHOO!

I'm about to piss my pants I'm so excited.

The Dems now have a choice: Casey or Rendell.

Unless the bottem falls out of the GOP campaign, they can't both be elected.

Don't tell them that! Their Eddie is a lock with only 45% wanting him for four more years and 43% wanting change. Now that's a one safe election for Rendell!

[Moooooo]

Team 88 is up and running!

http://lynnswannteam88.com/

I didnt see a list of Swann's political accomplishments.  Where can I find them?

[Moooooo]

Unless the bottem falls out of the GOP campaign, they can't both be elected.

Why not?

I personally think Casey is a fairly weak candidate.  Once the name recognition part of the campaign wears off, and both candidates get down to the issues, Santorum will probably pull away. 

But Im still curious as to why you think both cannot win in the same election year?

[Keystone Phil]

Team 88 is up and running!

http://lynnswannteam88.com/

I didnt see a list of Swann's political accomplishments.  Where can I find them?

Very funny.

[12th Doctor]

Unless the bottem falls out of the GOP campaign, they can't both be elected.

Why not?

I personally think Casey is a fairly weak candidate.  Once the name recognition part of the campaign wears off, and both candidates get down to the issues, Santorum will probably pull away. 

But Im still curious as to why you think both cannot win in the same election year?

Money.  The Democrats won't have enough money to throw into both races.  They either have to concentrate on electing one guy or the other.  Also, it will be difficult for the Dems and political PAC's to run broad based issue ad's since Casey and Rendell are almost total opposites.

[12th Doctor]

Team 88 is up and running!

http://lynnswannteam88.com/

I didnt see a list of Swann's political accomplishments.  Where can I find them?

He ran the Bush 2004 campaign in Western PA and generated the best numbers that a Republican candidate has had in that area since the turn of the 20th century.

[danwxman]

Unless the bottem falls out of the GOP campaign, they can't both be elected.

Why not?

I personally think Casey is a fairly weak candidate.  Once the name recognition part of the campaign wears off, and both candidates get down to the issues, Santorum will probably pull away. 

But Im still curious as to why you think both cannot win in the same election year?

Money.  The Democrats won't have enough money to throw into both races.  They either have to concentrate on electing one guy or the other.  Also, it will be difficult for the Dems and political PAC's to run broad based issue ad's since Casey and Rendell are almost total opposites.

Of course they have enough money!

The Democratic establishment will put copious amounts of money into Casey's campaign...and Rendell will raise a ton of money for himself. I have the feeling Rendell will see some huge donations from the gambling industry.

[Keystone Phil]

Unless the bottem falls out of the GOP campaign, they can't both be elected.

Why not?

I personally think Casey is a fairly weak candidate.  Once the name recognition part of the campaign wears off, and both candidates get down to the issues, Santorum will probably pull away. 

But Im still curious as to why you think both cannot win in the same election year?

Money.  The Democrats won't have enough money to throw into both races.  They either have to concentrate on electing one guy or the other.  Also, it will be difficult for the Dems and political PAC's to run broad based issue ad's since Casey and Rendell are almost total opposites.

Of course they have enough money!

The Democratic establishment will put copious amounts of money into Casey's campaign...and Rendell will raise a ton of money for himself.

But unlike Fisher, Swann will be able to raise some big money for himself.

[danwxman]

Unless the bottem falls out of the GOP campaign, they can't both be elected.

Why not?

I personally think Casey is a fairly weak candidate.  Once the name recognition part of the campaign wears off, and both candidates get down to the issues, Santorum will probably pull away. 

But Im still curious as to why you think both cannot win in the same election year?

Money.  The Democrats won't have enough money to throw into both races.  They either have to concentrate on electing one guy or the other.  Also, it will be difficult for the Dems and political PAC's to run broad based issue ad's since Casey and Rendell are almost total opposites.

Of course they have enough money!

The Democratic establishment will put copious amounts of money into Casey's campaign...and Rendell will raise a ton of money for himself.

But unlike Fisher, Swann will be able to raise some big money for himself.

Sure. But I guarantee you Rendell will outspend him on the campaign. You know that.

[Keystone Phil]

Unless the bottem falls out of the GOP campaign, they can't both be elected.

Why not?

I personally think Casey is a fairly weak candidate.  Once the name recognition part of the campaign wears off, and both candidates get down to the issues, Santorum will probably pull away. 

But Im still curious as to why you think both cannot win in the same election year?

Money.  The Democrats won't have enough money to throw into both races.  They either have to concentrate on electing one guy or the other.  Also, it will be difficult for the Dems and political PAC's to run broad based issue ad's since Casey and Rendell are almost total opposites.

Of course they have enough money!

The Democratic establishment will put copious amounts of money into Casey's campaign...and Rendell will raise a ton of money for himself.

But unlike Fisher, Swann will be able to raise some big money for himself.

Sure. But I guarantee you Rendell will outspend him on the campaign. You know that.

That doesn't mean he will win. Rendell had no problems fundraising in '02 against someone like Fisher and won by only (and I say only because it was projected that he'd win by more) 9 points. Now he has some competition.

[Moooooo]

He ran the Bush 2004 campaign in Western PA and generated the best numbers that a Republican candidate has had in that area since the turn of the 20th century.

Ok... From that I have gathered that he is a great campaign manager.  What about political accomplishments?  In other words, what has he done for PA lately?