PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell just made a mistake.  He's brought up some gun control issues.  Opps!

If that turns into one of the major issues in the 2006 race, I think Flyers and danwxman better get over to the Governor's mansion as soon as possible. He'll need help packing. 

[Moooooo]

Rendell comes off as a strong campaigner and candidate in general to me.  I really cannot see him losing re-election.  I have no clue why  But I just get that feeling.

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell comes off as a strong campaigner and candidate in general to me.  I really cannot see him losing re-election.  I have no clue why  But I just get that feeling.

Oh he's a strong campaigner and personally, people feel very comfortable with him. That stronger campaigner will return in 2006 but now he has a record to defend. Now he will have to deal with an electorate (especially out west) that doesn't embrace him as they once did. Whether PA Dems on this forum want to admit it or not, this is not the same Rendell as the one from 2002.

[Max Power]

Rendell comes off as a strong campaigner and candidate in general to me.  I really cannot see him losing re-election.  I have no clue why  But I just get that feeling.

Oh he's a strong campaigner and personally, people feel very comfortable with him. That stronger campaigner will return in 2006 but now he has a record to defend. Now he will have to deal with an electorate (especially out west) that doesn't embrace him as they once did. Whether PA Dems on this forum want to admit it or not, this is not the same Rendell as the one from 2002.

Where do you live? This "west" I live in apparently hates him?

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell comes off as a strong campaigner and candidate in general to me.  I really cannot see him losing re-election.  I have no clue why  But I just get that feeling.

Oh he's a strong campaigner and personally, people feel very comfortable with him. That stronger campaigner will return in 2006 but now he has a record to defend. Now he will have to deal with an electorate (especially out west) that doesn't embrace him as they once did. Whether PA Dems on this forum want to admit it or not, this is not the same Rendell as the one from 2002.

Where do you live? This "west" I live in apparently hates him?

I live in Philadelphia but have spoken to a Pennsylvanian from the Pittsburgh area and have seen his numbers around that area. Not good or atleast not as good as 2002.

[danwxman]

Piccola, Scranton bash Rendell on taxes, record
Monday, March 21, 2005
BY PETER L. DeCOURSEY
Of The Patriot-News

Sen. Jeffrey Piccola, R-Dauphin, says he is running for governor to abolish school property taxes and replace Gov. Ed Rendell.

Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton and Piccola each outlined their case to be Rendell's GOP challenger before the Federation of College Republicans Friday night at the Hershey Lodge and Convention Center.

A third Republican eyeing the race, Lynn Swann, did not attend the event.

Piccola said Rendell's property tax reform plan was passed in 2004, but no tax reduction is scheduled until 2007.

Piccola told about 100 College Republicans, "significant property tax relief ... isn't coming. Probably not at all, and certainly not anytime soon."

He said it was time to go further than reducing property taxation for school funding, "We can no longer use a 19th century tax to fund a 21st century priority."

"Our next governor must work and produce the repeal of property taxes to fund public education in Pennsylvania."

Piccola said he would discuss specifics in the coming months.

Scranton was less specific, as he invoked Ronald Reagan as the model of a Republican "who changed history by defeating a Democratic incumbent. ... That is how you change history.

"We have a terrible habit in Pennsylvania. Every eight years, we elect a Democratic governor. Just when we've taken two steps forward, cut taxes, reduced regulations that stop job creation, then we elect a Democrat and take two steps back.

"Never before has an incumbent governor been defeated in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. And ladies and gentlemen, never before has an incumbent governor deserved to be defeated more than the current governor, Ed Rendell. After two years, all he has given us is higher fees, higher taxes and gambling."

Rendell has declined to answer attacks by GOP opponents, "Re-elections are referendums on the incumbent. And voters know what we are doing, and I believe we will win based on our record."

Piccola emphasized his experience as a legislative Republican working to defeat Rendell's plans but did not mention that he ultimately voted for the tax hike and education initiatives he continues to oppose.

"We need to get the government out of the way of the people of Pennsylvania and the job creators of Pennsylvania," Piccola said. "[Rendell] calls this his plan for the new Pennsylvania. We don't need a new Pennsylvania. What we need is a new governor."

Swann's absence disappointed many of the College Republicans. He also skipped the Republican State Committee's most recent weekend meeting in Harrisburg to play at a celebrity golf tournament for a five-figure fee.

"If he wants to be governor, he better start coming to events and showing it," said Mitchell Bashur, 19, a western Pennsylvania native and official in the Dickinson College Republicans. Bashur was born after Swann retired from pro football, but said, "it's in our blood in Steeler country to be Lynn Swann fans and I am. But he needs to get out here."

Swann has trailed Piccola and Scranton in public appearances, but has made a few public speeches. He spent last Monday in Harrisburg in closed-door meetings with Senate President Pro-Tem Robert C. Jubelirer, R-Blair, and other GOP leaders.

Unlike Piccola and Scranton, who say they are committed to running, Swann says he is still pondering the viability of a run.

PETER L. DeCOURSEY: 783-5196 or pdecoursey@patriot-news.com

-------------------------------
Swann didn't show up?!?

[danwxman]

Former foes praise Rendell's leadership
Sunday, March 20, 2005
BY PETER L. DeCOURSEY
Of The Patriot-News

The Democratic State Committee members who spurned Gov. Ed Rendell's candidacy three years ago are now praising his leadership and the party's winning record.

And, as state committee members met at the Holiday Inn East in Swatara Twp. on Friday and yesterday, they said they hoped Rendell will help the party win two state Senate special elections.
      From Our Advertiser


      
            

"He won the governorship. We won three out of four statewide judges in 2003. Kerry won the state last year, and so did Bob Casey for treasurer and Jack Wagner as auditor general," said Bill George, president of the statewide AFL-CIO. "The governor raised millions to help us win those races and is a great spokesman for our party."

In 2002, George was a major supporter of Casey's candidacy against Rendell for the Democratic nomination for governor. Now he says, "Governor Rendell is rebuilding the Democratic Party with the leadership it needs."

Harrisburg City Councilwoman Linda Thompson also backed Casey. "I knew Bob Casey and his family in 2001. Ed Rendell was from Philadelphia, and I didn't know him. Now I have seen his leadership, and our success as a party owes a lot to our governor."

Jack Hanna of Indiana County, another Casey supporter in 2002, praised Rendell for more than his record of wins and losses.

He noted that Rendell has ended an era of costly primary elections that hurt the party and has strongly supported candidates who disagree with Rendell's support of abortion rights, something party leaders failed to do in the past.

But Hanna, Thompson and George also see a challenge in state Senate special elections. On April 5, residents of Allentown and its suburbs will fill the seat vacated by Charles Dent when he was elected to Congress last year. On May 17, voters will fill the Allegheny County seat vacated by Jack Wagner's election to auditor general.

Polls show Democrat Wayne Fontana trailing state Rep. Mike Diven, R-Allegheny, in the Wagner district, and state Rep. Jennifer Mann, D-Lehigh, trailing state Rep. Pat Browne, R-Lehigh, in the Dent seat.

Rendell has been pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into both races.

"Those are our priorities for two reasons," Hanna said. "First, they could indicate what will happen in our big races in 2006, since we need to do well in both districts in the Senate and governor's races. But also, we need to stop losing House and Senate seats, so the governor doesn't have to be a contortionist to solve Pennsylvania's problems. These are big important races, and the party understands that from the governor on down."

PETER L. DeCOURSEY: 783-5196 or pdecoursey@patriot-news.com

[Keystone Phil]

Swann didn't show up?!?

Yeah, he should really be attending these events especially since it's known in the political community that he'll be running.

[AuH2O]

Rendell is going to be very, very tough to beat. I wouldn't bet against him. But I hope he loses all the same.

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell is going to be very, very tough to beat. I wouldn't bet against him. But I hope he loses all the same.

It will be tough but many SE PA Dems like to look at Rendell as this absolutley unbeatable force. He is not a lock for re-election. If someone says, "I think he's going to win." Fine. I'll disagree. But don't start with this "Oh he won't have any problems."

[Max Power]

Rendell is going to be very, very tough to beat. I wouldn't bet against him. But I hope he loses all the same.

It will be tough but many SE PA Dems like to look at Rendell as this absolutley unbeatable force. He is not a lock for re-election. If someone says, "I think he's going to win." Fine. I'll disagree. But don't start with this "Oh he won't have any problems."

Wow, I learn something new everyday! All of my neighbors HATE Ed Rendell! Whoa, I didn't know I lived by so many flaming Republicans! (Sarcasm)

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell is going to be very, very tough to beat. I wouldn't bet against him. But I hope he loses all the same.

It will be tough but many SE PA Dems like to look at Rendell as this absolutley unbeatable force. He is not a lock for re-election. If someone says, "I think he's going to win." Fine. I'll disagree. But don't start with this "Oh he won't have any problems."

Wow, I learn something new everyday! All of my neighbors HATE Ed Rendell! Whoa, I didn't know I lived by so many flaming Republicans! (Sarcasm)

Instead of being a clown, answer this question: Is Ed Rendell liked as much as he was in 2002 right now in the western part of the state?

[Moooooo]

Someone said this to me the other day and I think it is the best way to address the 2006 gubernatorial race in PA.

Its not a question of whether Rendell will win or not.  Its a question of how much he will win by. 

[Keystone Phil]

Someone said this to me the other day and I think it is the best way to address the 2006 gubernatorial race in PA.

Its not a question of whether Rendell will win or not.  Its a question of how much he will win by. 

And that person is obviously ignoring the approval/disapproval ratings of Rendell.

[Max Power]

Someone said this to me the other day and I think it is the best way to address the 2006 gubernatorial race in PA.

Its not a question of whether Rendell will win or not.  Its a question of how much he will win by. 

I agree.

[Smash255]

Rendell is going to be very, very tough to beat. I wouldn't bet against him. But I hope he loses all the same.

It will be tough but many SE PA Dems like to look at Rendell as this absolutley unbeatable force. He is not a lock for re-election. If someone says, "I think he's going to win." Fine. I'll disagree. But don't start with this "Oh he won't have any problems."

Wow, I learn something new everyday! All of my neighbors HATE Ed Rendell! Whoa, I didn't know I lived by so many flaming Republicans! (Sarcasm)

Instead of being a clown, answer this question: Is Ed Rendell liked as much as he was in 2002 right now in the western part of the state?

Probably not, but it evens out, he is probably more popular in SE PA now than he was 4 years ago as well

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell is going to be very, very tough to beat. I wouldn't bet against him. But I hope he loses all the same.

It will be tough but many SE PA Dems like to look at Rendell as this absolutley unbeatable force. He is not a lock for re-election. If someone says, "I think he's going to win." Fine. I'll disagree. But don't start with this "Oh he won't have any problems."

Wow, I learn something new everyday! All of my neighbors HATE Ed Rendell! Whoa, I didn't know I lived by so many flaming Republicans! (Sarcasm)

Instead of being a clown, answer this question: Is Ed Rendell liked as much as he was in 2002 right now in the western part of the state?

Probably not, but it evens out, he is probably more popular in SE PA now than he was 4 years ago as well

No he's not. You really don't know this area. Is he still popular here? Yes. More popular? No.

[Smash255]

Rendell is going to be very, very tough to beat. I wouldn't bet against him. But I hope he loses all the same.

It will be tough but many SE PA Dems like to look at Rendell as this absolutley unbeatable force. He is not a lock for re-election. If someone says, "I think he's going to win." Fine. I'll disagree. But don't start with this "Oh he won't have any problems."

Wow, I learn something new everyday! All of my neighbors HATE Ed Rendell! Whoa, I didn't know I lived by so many flaming Republicans! (Sarcasm)

Instead of being a clown, answer this question: Is Ed Rendell liked as much as he was in 2002 right now in the western part of the state?

Probably not, but it evens out, he is probably more popular in SE PA now than he was 4 years ago as well

No he's not. You really don't know this area. Is he still popular here? Yes. More popular? No.

Going up against someone like Swann he would do worse than he did in 2002 iN Western PA, but better than what he did in 02 in SE PA

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A new Franklin & Marshall poll shows Rendell leading Swann by 30 percent and Scranton by 10 percent.

GOV GOP Primary Matchup 
Scranton        25%     
Swann           17       
Picola             8     
Undec/Oth     50

GOV General Matchups
Rendell   53%    Rendell     47%   Rendell   59%
Picola     23        Scranton  37      Swann     29
Undec/Oth 24    Undec/Oth 16     Undec/Oth 12

The same poll shows Casey leading Santorum by only 1%.

[Keystone Phil]

A new Franklin & Marshall poll shows Rendell leading Swann by 30 percent and Scranton by 10 percent.

GOV GOP Primary Matchup 
Scranton        25%     
Swann           17       
Picola             8     
Undec/Oth     50

GOV General Matchups
Rendell   53%    Rendell     47%   Rendell   59%
Picola     23        Scranton  37      Swann     29
Undec/Oth 24    Undec/Oth 16     Undec/Oth 12

The same poll shows Casey leading Santorum by only 1%.

Rendell's not getting to 59% in a race against Swann. It could happen against Scranton or Piccola though.

[Keystone Phil]

Awwwwwww. I thought Eddie was so popular guys...

From grassrootspa.com

The survey finds Gov. Rendell with less than intimidating numbers for an incumbent governor. His job approval rating is 39 percent, compared to 56 percent for Tom Ridge at a slightly later point in his first term.

And when asked if Rendell deserved re-election, 45 percent said yes, while 43 percent said it's time for a change. As a rule, pollsters regard less than 50 percent on that question a sign of trouble.
...
Madonna said Rendell's approval ratings are particularly weak in western Pennsylvania.

[Jake]

Hmm, looks like Scranton has the early lead, Swann better get out there and start raising money.

[Keystone Phil]

Hmm, looks like Scranton has the early lead, Swann better get out there and start raising money.

Swann has made a few mistakes but there's no way Rendell is at 59%.

The real topic of debate here should be Rendell's dismal numbers. 45% want him in 2006 while 43% want a change. His rating is probably not 39% but likely in the mid 40s (which is not great).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The real debate should be, given Rendell's vulnerable looking numbers, why the Republicans weren't able to recruit anyone better than a washed-up football star to oppose him.

[12th Doctor]

Awww, Pennsylvania Democrats. Keep telling me how popular Eddie is.

From grassrootspa.com


SURVEY USA/WNEP POLL: CASEY 49% SANTORUM 42%, RENDELL 50%, SWANN 44%!!!



Hat tip Justin.

Times Leader:

A new statewide survey shows Democratic Pennsylvania Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. holding a 7-point lead over two-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pittsburgh, in the 2006 senate race.

Conducted by SurveyUSA for WNEP-TV Channel 16, the survey asked 506 registered voters around the state who they would choose in the senate race. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

The results showed Casey with 49 percent to Santorum's 42 percent. Eight percent of the poll respondents were undecided.
...
The SurveyUSA poll also showed Gov. Ed Rendell with a 6-point lead over potential Republican challenger and former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann. The poll showed Rendell with 50 percent, Swann with 44 percent and 5 percent undecided.

The poll did not ask voters about the other two potential Republican candidates for governor next year, former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton and Harrisburg state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola.

Looks good for Rendell. I could see his challenger, possibly Swann, getting about 44%. Give almost all the undecideds to Rendell. 55-44 looks like a good outcome.

Why is it that during the Presidential Race we gave all the undecideds to Kerry, the challenger, but in the governor's race we give all the undecideds to Rendell.

Explain please.

He's a moderate Democrat.

Casey is not moderate.

He is conservative on social issues.  Almost as much as Santorum.  There views are virtually indistiguishable from one anothers.

He is liberal on economics.  More liberal than Kerry, by far.  These stances do not a moderate make.

He is just a guy who does not walk party line.