Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Back OT: What will Grit activists' reaction be to a Rae run?

[RogueBeaver]

Have any Grits here committed to a candidate yet?

[RogueBeaver]

Hepburn: No alternative to Rae. Thing is, I doubt Liberals would hold Kennedy's loss of his seat against him- it was out of his control. We've already discussed why Garneau and LeBland are bad choices, so won't relitigate that.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1117815--if-not-bob-rae-as-liberal-leader-who-s-the-next-best-choice

[RogueBeaver]

Holland: Sounds likely, but he has no chance of beating Rae.

West: Lamoureux is too inexperienced, Goodale is too old, politically dated and unilingual, and Fry's batshoot.

[RogueBeaver]

No. All the candidates are Ontarian except LeBlanc, if he runs.

[RogueBeaver]

He'd be a mixture of Ed Miliband and Stephane Dion. Not exactly the guy you want facing Stephen Harper.

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed there. For now he should be a western lieutenant, but he'll never be leader.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the problem: Liberal activists don't want the one man not named Bob Rae who's been at the forefront of rebuilding. Namely Brison.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/defence+politicians/6020739/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Rex Murphy last night: Rae will win because there's no one else.

[RogueBeaver]

To continue a conversation I had with Hatman in the General Discussion thread, Rae is more popular than Harper in Ontario- but only until the Permanent Campaign reboots. Depends if Rae continues defending his record or gets convinced to drop that altogether and keep it all Brisonomics, all the time.

[RogueBeaver]

Rae himself doesn't think so- that's why he's building a warchest for a Permanent Campaign of their own. I agree that it shouldn't matter after a generation, but evidently Ontarians still think differently.

[RogueBeaver]

Regardless, I think we can all agree that none of those considering running can seriously challenge Rae's hammerlock on the nomination. Who will run if Rae does apart from Kennedy? Garneau and McGuinty are vanishingly unlikely. Holland and BW probably, dunno about Hall Findlay. Definitely not LeBland.

I'd also recommend a Shadow Cabinet reshuffle, since many people either shouldn't hold portfolios (Fry) and others are ill-suited for their current ones (Bennett in Aboriginal instead of Health).

[RogueBeaver]

How would other Ontarian contenders like Kennedy or David McGuinty do there?

[RogueBeaver]

When will everyone start declaring? The Board will reveal the exact date no earlier than 5 months in advance- which means we might not know for another full year. Surely the campaign will begin this fall?

[RogueBeaver]

Pelciquistes on the upswing. NDP 29, BQ 22, PLQ 19.  What does this look like in your models?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201201/24/01-4489073-le-plc-profite-dune-baisse-du-npd.php

Double whammy for Duceppe.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201201/24/01-4489087-gilles-duceppe-de-nouveau-eclabousse.php

[RogueBeaver]

LOL. Tremblay is running and therefore a lock for his fourth term here in Montreal. No way in hell would Coderre run against Rae.

http://www.canada.com/news/Coderre%2Bstill%2Bconsidering%2Brunning%2BLiberal%2Bleadership%2Bmayor%2BMontreal/6050769/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

His opponents are a Peq and a hard-left Truther. 'Nuff said. While we might agree to disagree on the mayoralty, we can agree that Coderre probably isn't running for leader.

[RogueBeaver]

What's with this Carney hype I see in the G&M every now and then? Has he ever indicated a poiltical interest, or even indicated an affiliation?

[RogueBeaver]

Raemania continues. Ironically, some Grits and Dippers quoted think that Rae is like PET- always a Liberal (Dipper) at heart. I'm hoping that Kennedy gets in soon, otherwise this will be a real coronation.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/the-liberals-need-a-new-leader-what-about-bob/article2318206/singlepage/#articlecontent

[RogueBeaver]

How is it that Ontario is seeing a surge in support for the Liberals with Rae as leader?  Why does it seem that NDP supporters are becoming Liberal while Rae is hated by NDP supporters for his social contract?  That's what puzzles me.  Is it the lack of Jack Layton?

'Tis Blue Liberals returning home. For that the credit should go to Brison.

[RogueBeaver]

My view is not as rosy as Arnold's.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/30/dan-arnold-ok-if-its-not-bob-rae-then-who-else/

Rae: No disagreements.

LeBland: A wimp and Chretien/Establishment tool.

Trudeau: Not running this time.

Dalton: ROFL.

David: LOL.

Garneau: Age, insufficiently political.

Brison: Won't run because he can't win. A pity.

Coderre: LOL. A thuggish, insubordinate blowhard. ROFL at organizational abilities: events of the past 3 years have thoroughly debunked that.

Cauchon: Who? Plus he got curbstomped by Mulcair last year.

Kennedy: Best choice, but can't beat Rae.

[RogueBeaver]

There's no one on the provincial scene worth looking at- and need I remind you that provincial transfers have a record of 7 losses, no wins?

[RogueBeaver]

I wouldn't use that example.

Anyhoo, of those who've expressed an interest, which of them do you think would actually challenge Rae apart from Kennedy and BW? I say none. Certainly not McGuinty, Garneau or LeBland.

[RogueBeaver]

No one's aiming for anything higher than Stornoway in '15 unless they're consuming something illegal.

[RogueBeaver]

At least Rae is saving you guys from your very own Ed Miliband- LeBland.