Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Keep it to likely candidates. Even then, Rae would still be far ahead.

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/Liberals%2Breach%2Bpost%2Belection%2Bhigh%2BTories%2Brule%2Bpolls/6130773/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Rae gets a Conrad Black endorsement.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/11/conrad-black-a-few-of-my-favourite-things-in-canadian-politics/#more-67287

[RogueBeaver]

Kennedy's French is inadequate and LeBland is their own Ed Miliband.

[RogueBeaver]

With the Dipper race wrapping up in 2 weeks, hopefully we'll get some news here soon. If Mulcair loses, then non-Rae candidates will have a slightly easier time deciding whether or not to run. If Mulcair wins then Rae's hammerlock becomes even tighter than it is already.

Thing is I don't see anyone running against Rae ATM. Kennedy might jump in but even that's doubtful. Would he really run against Rae? McGuinty, Garneau and LeBland I don't see running because they're too loyal and realistic. Brison has already ruled it out for family reasons, even before it was clear that Rae was running.

[RogueBeaver]

Best of luck, but no one's unseating Rae.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/03/19/gerard-kennedy/

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully this happens.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Politics/20120322/liberals-push-ahead-leadership-vote-120322/

[RogueBeaver]

Does Mulcair's election change the dynamic? I think it further solidifies Rae's grip on the leadership myself.

[RogueBeaver]

Only if Rae doesn't run can they get Kennedy.

http://blogs.canoe.ca/davidakin/politics/political-leaders-gender-and-age-the-context-for-decisions-the-liberals-must-make/

[RogueBeaver]

No one has any thoughts? :Sad:

[RogueBeaver]

That's exactly what Brison has been doing in rewriting their economic platform. After Saturday's events, now the Anglo media is yet again suggesting that Trudeau will jump in despite his consistent "a la prochaine" stance.

[RogueBeaver]

Iggy gave him the Immigration portfolio, and even his critics conceded he performed well there. But you're right- he doesn't want the job right now because his kids are too young and he's insufficiently experienced. The goal is 24 Sussex, something he restated just last week.

Of those who are interested, I think it comes down to Rae and Kennedy, maybe Martha Hall Findlay. No one else who previously expressed interest in caucus would, IMO, run against Rae. Brison is invaluable where he is, and besides the base wouldn't trust him to do what he's doing without "supervision."

[RogueBeaver]

For Liberal leader lets wait and see.  With Mulcair being more centrist, maybe they will move more to the right than left figuring their best shot is to pick up soft Conservative supporters rather than soft NDP supporters.  Or perhaps they will choose Rae and with the ideological gap between the parties being largely eliminated, they will end up merging eventually.

Why has there been so much merger talk lately?

It's a Toronto media fetish which no one in either party takes seriously. That and Mulcair's centrism being overrated by said journos. They basically see him as either Tony Blair or Paul Keating depending on the day. And as usual, Toronto is wrong.

[RogueBeaver]

Even if the Liberals remain the third party in 2015, they might not merge. Look at the UK Liberals after they permanently lost un des deux status.

Speaking of Bob Rae, why he has been whining nonstop ever since Mulcair's election? It's unseemly for a man of his calibre and experience. If he's that thin-skinned now, I can only imagine what he'll do once the ad barrage goes up in Ontario.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/04/tension-between-ndp-liberals-as-rae-calls-mulcair-a-mini-harper/

[RogueBeaver]

Open question: who besides Gerard Kennedy might actually run?

On another note, I've noticed for years that the Toronto media has a very bipolar view of Trudeau. When he does well they're all unanimous in gushing restorationism, when he goofs they  write very personal "charming, hunky airhead" screeds (like Gagnon did in February). FFS, even Le Devoir takes a much more balanced approach to a guy they hate for reasons other than his surname. And we Quebecers are supposedly the ones who are emotional and volatile. Michael Den Tandt is one of the few Torontonians who keeps it level- and that's precisely as it should be. Same applies to Tom Mulcair, as I mentioned in the NDP thread.

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/Punch%2Bdrunk%2Bpolitics/6413606/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

If the Liberals were to hijack the NDP as a way of returning to power, what on earth would be the point of having an NDP?

Are we talking about merger? I highly doubt that in said hypothetical "LDP" (or whatever the name would be) Grits would have first dibs on leadership or anything else for that matter. The NDP would dominate said party just like Blues dominate the Conservative Party, and some more right-leaning Liberals (McCallum, Goodale, Brison) might swallow their pride and join our side, where they'd be more comfortable ideologically.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't think it's correct to call the Reformists the "blues". Blue was the colour of the PC Party, not the Reform Party.

In the Red/Blue Tory sense. Trust me, we don't refer to Blues and Greens amongst ourselves.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't think it's correct to call the Reformists the "blues". Blue was the colour of the PC Party, not the Reform Party.

In the Red/Blue Tory sense. Trust me, we don't refer to Blues and Greens amongst ourselves.

You were talking about the CA-PC merger, though. I don't think any Red Tories exist any more, at least not federally. (Chong might be an exception)

MacKay and Moore, to name the most prominent. I meant that the NDP would dominate both numerically and ideologically, just as the Alliance did. Hopefully this race starts soon.

[RogueBeaver]

The federal Liberals are essentially now the "red Tory" party.

True that, but "fiscal and social responsibility" seems the ideal ideological positioning for them provided it translates into concrete policies.

Following this template would also help.

http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/reid.pdf

[RogueBeaver]

The federal Liberals are essentially now the "red Tory" party.

True that, but "fiscal and social responsibility" seems the ideal ideological positioning for them provided it translates into concrete policies.

Following this template would also help.

http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun11/reid.pdf

I will have to live in ignorance. I took one look at who wrote that, and I was reminded of his gawdawful show on CTV Newsnet, and I closed the tab.

1) open up the party to non-members (check), build a Manning Centre equivalent, realign economic policy (check), write a new policy manifesto (incomplete).

2) Have an interim leader who gives the party a pulse (check) and keeps them relevant both in Parliament and the national dialogue (check).

3) Recommending a Trudeau/Brison permanent leadership team without mentioning their (or anyone else's) name.

[RogueBeaver]

What's the Liberal equivalent of the Manning Institute? The NDP has the Broadbent institute, but it sucks so far.

They don't have one ATM. Who would head such a thing anyways? Right now Brison's their wonk-in-residence, but he can't do all that by himself.

[RogueBeaver]

Except that James Moore was first elected as an Alliancer, not a PC. 

Which, in a way, says everything.

There was one Blue PC, Scott Brison, but he's on Team Red.

[RogueBeaver]

James Moore has the most beautiful dogs! He often uploads their photos on Facebook.

Aww. But I'm still voting for Jason Kenney when the time comes.

[RogueBeaver]

Crawley told Rae that he must make a decision before June.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/05/john-ivison-thomas-mulcairs-sure-footed-start-could-be-made-moot-by-by-oil-sands-comments/

[RogueBeaver]

I'll believe that when I see it.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1157912--bob-rae-not-running-for-leader-of-liberal-party

[RogueBeaver]

Last I checked, that's precisely how Brison is realigning their platform. Garneau and McGuinty would be godawful candidates- the only alternative to Rae is Kennedy.

http://www.canada.com/news/Tandt%2Baside%2Bremains%2Buphill%2Bclimb%2BLiberals/6428191/story.html