Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

They don't need a saviour, they need someone without baggage who has both experience and a strategy. Gerard Kennedy.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1159803--hebert-liberals-looking-for-a-saviour-and-a-miracle

[RogueBeaver]

Compared to Bob Rae's, quite minor. Had he made Iggy leader that would be one thing, and at any rate only junkies would remember that offhand. Kennedy has two handicaps: no seat and last I heard, weak French.

[RogueBeaver]

If the answer is 'Gerard Kennedy' then the question is a deeply stupid one.

Did he kick your dog or something? :puzzled:

[RogueBeaver]

OK, so if not Kennedy or Rae, then who of those who have not explicitly ruled out a run?

Coderre: NO.

Martha Hall Findlay: Inexperience plus "who?" to all those who didn't watch the '06 convention. Lost her seat.

Garneau: Age, not really leadership material IMO.

Mark Holland: Who? Plus he lost his seat.

LeBlanc: Harper and Mulcair would love that.

David McGuinty: No explanation required.

[RogueBeaver]

Compared to Bob Rae's, quite minor. Had he made Iggy leader that would be one thing, and at any rate only junkies would remember that offhand. Kennedy has two handicaps: no seat and last I heard, weak French.

Well, not only no seat, but *lost* seat, to boot.  And to Peggy Nash, to boot.

I think his handicap is that he comes across as a bit of an insipid "NDP lite" pretty boy--which isn't great in an age of the NDP being stronger, nor is it great if the Grits want to assemble anything like the grand electoral coalitions of old--which, sad to say, also involves repatriating some erstwhile Grit vote from the Tories.  (Which also helps explain why Dalton McGuinty defeated Kennedy for the provincial leadership a decade and a half ago.)

Is it really his (or anyone else's) fault that he went under though? A few Liberals (Holland, Mendes, etc.) won their advance poll but lost their seat when the Dippers surged post-debate. I also highly doubt he would interfere with Brison's command of their policy shop, which is definitely not Dipper-lite.

[RogueBeaver]

What happens when Ontario gets reminded of his premiership?

Hence Kennedy.

[RogueBeaver]

It wouldn't be "vs." so much as "and", but we might have to ATD on that point.

Name recognition: Party members and "supporters" will be voting, not the general voting public. Besides, Ontario is where the work needs to be done.

[RogueBeaver]

Rules will be set this weekend. 9 months with LeBland as interim? That would be almost as bad as 9 months of Turmel was for the Dippers.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/04/20/pol-liberal-leadership-meet.html

[RogueBeaver]

It isn't so much blandness as wimpiness and being a complete tool of the Chretien gang.

Kennedy: Is there anyone better ATM? He can't win against Rae of course, but someone needs to make a strong stance. If by some miracle Rae doesn't run Kennedy's the frontrunner.

[RogueBeaver]

Forgive me if I don't think McGuinty's the best model when it comes to either policy or politics. I'll give Dad credit for being a survivor, but he and everyone else knows that his last two terms have had more to do with PC self-nuking than anything else.

I don't see LeBlanc connecting with ordinary voters either. He's a great paper candidate- a young, Atlantic, perfectly bilingual Ivy League Francophone with lots of experience. In practice the story is very different. Shy, weak personality, completely unknown outside of NB and party circles. No Liberal I know has a particularly high opinion of him as leadership material. Do you really think he's a match for Stephen Harper and Tom Mulcair in the Commons bear pit?

If he does become either interim or (heaven forbid from a Liberal POV) permanent, I'm predicting he will be overshadowed like Dion and to a degree Iggy were.

[RogueBeaver]

I thought the goal was to reclaim OO, but that looks quite unlikely with Mulcair at the helm. Though who knows- the present alignment was only formed in the campaign's final 10 days. We'll probably have to agree to disagree on Kennedy and leave that there.

Those who haven't said no...

Coderre: No. Just no.

Garneau: Francophone Dryden.

Hall Findlay: Too inexperienced, lost seat.

David McGuinty: Last name.

[RogueBeaver]

Yet another step. The rules will hopefully be set in June.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/04/22/pol-liberals-board-meeting.html

[RogueBeaver]

Bob Rae to resign at the end of June- confirming what we've known for a year. Only a non-denial in response.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/30/bob-rae-likely-to-to-resign-from-interim-gig-to-run-for-liberal-party-leadership/

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/30/bob-rae-resignation-interim-post_n_1465925.html

[RogueBeaver]

Garneau and McGuinty are also apparently running. Their interim leader needs to be bilingual, which leaves... LeBland. Is Brison's French good enough? He's the only possible alternative interim to LeBland (who himself might not take it).

But yeah, this is a cakewalk for Rae.

[RogueBeaver]

Kennedy, (David) McGuinty, Garneau, MHF, LeBlanc, Coderre?

http://www.canada.com/news/least%2BLiberals%2Btesting%2Bwaters%2Bfederal%2Bleadership/6549450/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Crawley said months ago Rae shouldn't be barred, so this is just a formality.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/05/01/liberal-party-to-clarify-rules-for-a-rae-leadership-bid/

[RogueBeaver]

He will not run if the Liberals remain in third party status and has said as much publicly. Plus the other reason is his family and said exactly that on TMP 2 months ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Adma has a media crystal ball.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/05/04/justin-trudeau-should-be-the-next-leader-of-the-liberal-party-no-seriously/

[RogueBeaver]

Believe that when I see it.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1173339--hebert-is-justin-trudeau-the-liberals-salvation

[RogueBeaver]

Kennedy and Martha Hall Findlay are considering a run.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/05/07/kennedy-hall-findlay-still-mulling-run-for-federal-liberal-leadership/30676?page_requested=1

[RogueBeaver]

So is Joyce Murray, apparently.

[RogueBeaver]

Ivison usually gets these sort of scoops early, which is what makes it intriguing. Will only believe that when I see it, of course.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/04/john-ivison-justin-trudeau-can-dominate-attract-the-spotlight-but-can-he-lead-a-team/

[RogueBeaver]

Eh, put her in for western lieutenant or whatever you guys call that. Your take on Ivison's Trudeau scoop?

[RogueBeaver]

Wasn't the national executive supposed to meet this week?

[RogueBeaver]

The conference call will be next Wednesday. Rae will announce his candidacy once the summer recess starts in 2 weeks.

http://www.globalnews.ca/rae+to+decide+soon+on+liberal+leadership+bid/6442655937/story.html