Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Rae is released and will announce his candidacy in a couple of weeks.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/07/pol-liberal-leadership-bob-rae.html

[RogueBeaver]

Who else is there from caucus (as Topp taught us )? Everyone knew that Rae would find some way to run. Caucus badly wants him, membership is probably less enthusiastic.

Brison: Doesn't want it and wouldn't be elected if he did. Could be interim.

Coderre: No explanation required.

Garneau: Not really leadership material, plus age.

LeBland: Younger, perfectly bilingual Stephane Dion. Not leadership material.

McGuinty: Last name.

Trudeau: Probably doesn't want it this time despite Ivison's story. Too inexperienced at any rate.

[RogueBeaver]

Rae is still, despite his Ontarian flaws, the best electable (which excludes Brison) candidate. A third party needs a heavyweight leader with media presence if they don't want to die by media asphyxiation.* Take Kennedy: great guy, but few people outside Ontario know who he is and doesn't have the personality or political weight to constantly insert himself in the news. Rae does, in spades. That's partially how Jack Layton kept the NDP floating way above its poll numbers for most of his leadership.


*Which coincidentially, is what's happening to the BQ in our French media- even Le Devoir doesn't say a word about them.

[RogueBeaver]

Kinsella has also heard that Trudeau's running, but I'd like to see another MSM story before putting him in the YES column. G&M/TS/CBC usually have Grit scoops, so we should look there in the coming months.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2012/06/justin-trudeau/

[RogueBeaver]

Here's how I see the situation right now.

1) Grassroots is putting serious pressure on him, especially the Ontarians.

2) Establishment is torn- they feel Rae's experience outweighs his baggage. They like Trudeau but think he should wait one more cycle. (Which is also my opinion)

3) Family remains his top reason to say no.

4) He likes and respects Rae a lot so feels uncomfortable challenging him.

5) Many rank-and-filers who are undecided whether his inexperience or Rae's baggage is a greater problem. Some of whom prefer him personally to Rae- I know some Ontario Liberals like that.

6) Remember '68. Everyone else does the logistics with tacit consent to set up a late entry. Rae is borrowing part of that playbook by having Jim whatshisface organizing ethnic support.

If I had to predict it right now, it would be like Chris Christie last fall: saying he reconsidered but the answer is still no.

[RogueBeaver]

If he changes his mind, it won't be this summer. Rae will be in 3 weeks from now, along with others like Kennedy, BW and MHF at various points.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1205292--liberal-leadership-race-to-heat-up-in-june-once-bob-rae-s-intentions-are-clear?bn=1

[RogueBeaver]

Race kicks off in July.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/09/pol-the-house-mike-crawley-bob-rae-leadership.html

[RogueBeaver]

Keys are a turnin'. So, does anyone else join this party? Say, MHF or BW?

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/trudeau-not-prodded-into-race-158399885.html

[RogueBeaver]

I'd give Rae a slight advantage as the much more experienced quasi-incumbent. Should be interesting to see how the $$$ and various demographics fall.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1209577--hebert-justin-trudeau-s-best-option-may-lie-in-the-future

[RogueBeaver]

Have to disagree with you Hagrid, and I'm not the only one.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/06/09/as-liberal-party-considers-letting-bob-rae-run-for-leader-canadians-say-they-prefer-justin-trudeau/

I'd take Kinsella with a grain of salt. Not just the usual reasons but also because he seems to be playing the role Newman played for PET in '68.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/06/11/justin-time-for-liberal-leadership

[RogueBeaver]

I don't know whether MHF or BW will run. Kennedy is out, ditto LeBland. My question is who gets the interim nod: Brison or Garneau. Brison has worse French but far better economic credentials.

[RogueBeaver]

Ian McDonald seems to think the major task for whoever wins the captaincy of Team Red will be in Ontario. I disagree somewhat: that's one of them. The other one is toppling Team Orange in Quebec- in other words, pulling them down from about 42% now to low 30s or high 20s with BQ help.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/Does+really+want/6771238/story.html

As for whether Rae really wants it, I think we can assume he does when he said the announcement will come by month's end.

[RogueBeaver]

Now the decision is apparently a tossup, i.e. "Yes, but I'm not announcing for a bit."

http://www.680news.com/news/national/article/372569--trudeau-says-there-s-pressure-on-him-to-run-in-liberal-leadership-race

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1210354--bob-rae-s-wait-for-grit-crown-has-been-long-but-does-party-prefer-justin-trudeau

[RogueBeaver]

G&M mentions Trudeau. He almost has to run because the other potentials are political unknowns or liabilities.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/rae-wont-seek-liberal-leadership/article4255399/

As usual, Funke is correct.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/06/what-the-liberals-can-learn-from-the-ndp-leadership-race/

[RogueBeaver]

Rae just wrapped up his presser in the Commons foyer. Said the decision was based on a) political calculations b) his previous commitment c) his final decision was made last weekend.

[RogueBeaver]

Having heard Rae speak in person, I totally agree with Tommy.

IMO this increases the likelihood that Trudeau will run. The others are too unknown and the party will be a sitting duck for death by media asphyxiation (see BQ for details) with anyone else.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau @ presser: "Any decision to reconsider my decision will be discussed quietly with my family... decision won't be made in front of you."

Since Rae by all accounts had everything ready to go before suddenly aborting, I'm still unsure about whether Trudeau will actually take the plunge. Could go either way.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/13/pol-liberal-conference-call-wednesday-rae.html

[RogueBeaver]

If Trudeau stays out, I'm calling it for McGuinty.

Probably, but he also has Ontario baggage. And unlike his brother's provincial opponents both Harper and Mulcair know how to use such material effectively.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau has an exploratory committee in place, but Ivison reminds us that Rae did too before he aborted. As he reported last week, we won't know the decision till fall. So in the meantime we'll hear from others.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/06/13/john-ivison-rae-makes-a-graceful-exit-after-reading-the-writing-on-the-wall/

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1210978--walkom-with-rae-gone-liberal-leadership-is-trudeau-s-to-lose

[RogueBeaver]

Susan Delacourt says that strong dissent within the party was the strongest factor, while Bob Hepburn says Rae didn't think he could stay in for the long haul.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1211051--analysis-lethal-mix-of-attack-ads-fractious-party-culture-helped-bring-down-bob-rae

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1211074--bob-rae-the-real-reason-he-won-t-run-for-the-liberal-leadership?bn=1

[RogueBeaver]

Sometime next April.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/13/pol-liberal-party-leadership-vote.html

[RogueBeaver]

Rae will be 67 in 2015 and by that point have been in public life for 37 years, a record exceeded only by Chretien among contemporary politicians. He's definitely earned retirement if he wants it.

[RogueBeaver]

The rundown...

Coderre: Interested in Montreal's mayoralty, but hopefully he doesn't get it.

Garneau: Wants a draft, ready-made organization, $$$, etc. LOL.

Hall Findlay: See Kennedy.

Kennedy: Interested but waiting on Trudeau.

LeBlanc: See above.


http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/352429/trudeau-songe-a-la-chefferie-liberale


McGuinty: Also wants a draft but has long signaled interest.


Trudeau: Waiting on spousal approval, which Ivison and Oliver among others think will be forthcoming.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/waiting-for-trudeau-liberal-leadership-drama-revolves-around-his-indecision-159162515.html

[RogueBeaver]

Chretien: Plenty of "good candidates" such as LeBlanc/Garneau/Cauchon/Coderre/Trudeau, Trudeau has "proven himself."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/15/pol-liberals-chretien-on-rae-trudeau.html

What surprises me is that despite Chretien's long history with the Rae brothers, Rae didn't tell the old man he wasn't running.

[RogueBeaver]

I kind of feel like Trudeau is being pressured to run, and that's not really a good thing. It's like, does he even want to run? Would he be totally committed? And does he have a choice - seems like the party insiders and the media is just pushing this onto him as if he's already been crowned the new leader.

Scott Reid (pundit, not the MP) compared it to Charest in '98. Does he want to run? He's always said that his kids were the reason for staying out this time.* Having gone from Shermanesque to tossup even before Rae bowed out makes me think he's convinced himself that the work-family balance for a third party leader won't be that much heavier than a third party media favourite who gets more press in a week than most MPs do in a year. Now the last part is convincing Sophie. Does he have a choice? In the sense that he can say no and mean it, yes. But in practical political terms, pretty much no.


*He's on the record as saying 24 Sussex is his ultimate goal. Ambition certainly isn't lacking in his makeup.

Craig Oliver: Trudeau and LeBlanc have a mutual-support pact in place. No surprise.

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/powerplay#clip701273


For more on that lifelong friendship, here's Bob Hepburn in the Star last year.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/989874--hepburn-liberals-look-to-trudeau-and-leblanc