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Author Topic: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013  (Read 69591 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #75 on: December 04, 2011, 05:26:47 pm »

I won't post anything from That Site here, but the new poll which has the Liberals tied with the Dippers shows only a small pro-Dipper seat gap.

Kennedy's seat: Judy Sgro probably won't need much inducement to vacate York West, which is close enough to Kennedy's old York South seat in the Legislature.

Atlantic: Only the Newfoundland ones are truly safe.

TGP: LeBlanc, because he has a one-way relationship with the media.

Minion: No idea. The NDP will have a new leader in March.
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Holmes
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« Reply #76 on: December 04, 2011, 07:05:41 pm »

Kennedy's seat: Judy Sgro probably won't need much inducement to vacate York West, which is close enough to Kennedy's old York South seat in the Legislature.

This would literally be a nightmare.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #77 on: December 04, 2011, 08:14:30 pm »

Kennedy's seat: Judy Sgro probably won't need much inducement to vacate York West, which is close enough to Kennedy's old York South seat in the Legislature.

This would literally be a nightmare.

Why? She won by over 15.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



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mileslunn
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« Reply #78 on: December 04, 2011, 08:55:37 pm »

True York West is pretty safe, but by-elections are unpredictable so unless one wins by more than 30 points, it is a bit of a gamble and I think there were only 2 ridings nationally where the Liberals won by more than 30 points, both in Newfoundland & Laborador.  In addition their strength there is more a holdover from the ABC campaign Danny Williams ran so it remains to be seen how long this will last.  Off course if the Liberals are polling at over 30% nationally then they probably could risk one stepping down, but until they can stay above 30% for an extended period of time, it seems a bit risky.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #79 on: December 04, 2011, 10:09:10 pm »

If Sgro leaves, I might run to replace her, and no I'm not joking.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #80 on: December 05, 2011, 11:43:17 am »

All we need is Hebert to endorse the idea before Rae 4 Permanent becomes a Pundit Consensus.

Called it. If Rae runs, he wins the permanent leadership.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/337657/le-chant-du-cygne-de-bob-rae
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #81 on: December 05, 2011, 12:19:24 pm »

I have no problem with Rae as leader so long as he adopts all of Brison's policies on anything dealing with any amount of money.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #82 on: December 05, 2011, 01:17:02 pm »

I have no problem with Rae as leader so long as he adopts all of Brison's policies on anything dealing with any amount of money.

And adopting Trudeau's energy policy. But I doubt Brison can get elimination of capital gains tax through a convention where weed decriminalization is on the agenda.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201004/30/01-4276086-justin-trudeau-appuie-lexploitation-des-sables-bitumineux.php
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #83 on: December 05, 2011, 01:43:07 pm »

Remember the CPC has a majority, that means if we want to win (and I want us to win) we need to take their seats. Taking every NDP seat still results in a CPC majority. We should focus on taking so many seats from the CPC that they are reduced below the NDP. If that means we have to run on a "right-wing" platform, than so be it. I can back that.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #84 on: December 05, 2011, 07:43:35 pm »

Remember the CPC has a majority, that means if we want to win (and I want us to win) we need to take their seats. Taking every NDP seat still results in a CPC majority. We should focus on taking so many seats from the CPC that they are reduced below the NDP. If that means we have to run on a "right-wing" platform, than so be it. I can back that.

If the NDP collapses here in Quebec, it won't be Liberals who benefit. Either we Tories split ROQ booty with the Bloc or grab it all for ourselves. You guys get your Montreal-area seats (including mine) back.

Also, Hebert should know better than to say "anti-Rae Grits want Dalton McGuinty to run." Two sides of the same Establishment coin.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



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« Reply #85 on: December 05, 2011, 08:19:01 pm »

I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.
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« Reply #86 on: December 05, 2011, 08:25:08 pm »

I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

What specifically are you thinking of? If it's Adscam, I think only time will erode that.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
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« Reply #87 on: December 05, 2011, 08:28:34 pm »

I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

What specifically are you thinking of? If it's Adscam, I think only time will erode that.

They are seen as an Urban, Anglo party.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #88 on: December 05, 2011, 08:33:15 pm »

I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

What specifically are you thinking of? If it's Adscam, I think only time will erode that.

They are seen as an Urban, Anglo party.

And they weren't when Chretien was leader? Their stance on federalism hasn't changed since then either, so I wouldn't say that's the issue.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
MaxQue
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« Reply #89 on: December 06, 2011, 08:21:36 am »

I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

What specifically are you thinking of? If it's Adscam, I think only time will erode that.

They are seen as an Urban, Anglo party.

And they weren't when Chretien was leader? Their stance on federalism hasn't changed since then either, so I wouldn't say that's the issue.

In politics, all is relative. They looked much more pro-French than Reform or NDP before 2006.
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« Reply #90 on: December 06, 2011, 04:52:32 pm »

It's easy to forget that the Liberals actually won a plurality in Quebec in 2000.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #91 on: December 06, 2011, 07:23:38 pm »

ROFL. Given that Hill Times crap she wrote a few weeks ago, Rat Pack indeed.

http://www.thestar.com/article/1097837--tim-harper-sheila-copps-reinvents-herself-as-agent-of-change
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



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« Reply #92 on: December 06, 2011, 07:31:04 pm »

New Abacus poll says CPC 40%, NDP 31%, Liberals 18%...I guess dreaming of second place was fun for the Liberals while it lasted...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #93 on: December 06, 2011, 07:37:04 pm »

New Abacus poll says CPC 40%, NDP 31%, Liberals 18%...I guess dreaming of second place was fun for the Liberals while it lasted...

Abacus? I'll wait for CROP, Nanos or Leger, thx. Liberals haven't been that low for the past 5 months.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
Holmes
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« Reply #94 on: December 06, 2011, 07:50:11 pm »

Of all things going on in Canadian politics right now, federal election polls are the most meaningless.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #95 on: December 06, 2011, 07:53:40 pm »

Of all things going on in Canadian politics right now, federal election polls are the most meaningless.

Ottawa CW seems to be that Rae4P is a done deal, just awaiting the formal announcement after Copps is elected and repeals that rule.

So forum Grits, how would you guys react if Rae run for permanent? I'm confident in predicting that neither LeBlanc nor McGuinty, especially LeBlanc, would run in said scenario.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
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« Reply #96 on: December 06, 2011, 08:43:35 pm »

This is a bad thing. They just had an Anglo leader. They can't have another one again.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #97 on: December 06, 2011, 08:57:12 pm »

This is a bad thing. They just had an Anglo leader. They can't have another one again.

Alternation for its own sake is long obsolete, but it always has a way of imposing itself even when better-qualified candidates of the other linguistic group are available. See 2006 for details. There are much better reasons to oppose Rae's potential candidacy than his mother tongue. Unless you think LeBlanc is genuinely the best candidate for non-linguistic reasons.
 
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
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« Reply #98 on: December 06, 2011, 10:47:52 pm »


Ottawa CW seems to be that Rae4P is a done deal, just awaiting the formal announcement after Copps is elected and repeals that rule.


There is no "rule" to repeal. There is nothing in the Liberal Party constitution that says that an interim leader cannot run for the permanent leadership of the party. Bob Rae solemnly swore on a stack of Bibles that he would never run for the permanent leadership of the party if he could be interim leader. People grudgingly let him have the interim job because they took him at his word that he had absolutely no interest in running for the permanent job.

If he decides to run for the leadership he will not be breaking any "rule". He will just be breaking his word and exposing himself as a LIAR.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #99 on: December 06, 2011, 11:46:24 pm »

You are right that this is exactly how the Tories would frame it.
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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