Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Bilingualism chart of likely candidates, in alphabetical order. If anyone has recent info on Kennedy and McGuinty, please do tell.

Garneau: A+
Kennedy: D?
LeBland: A+
McGuinty: B?
Rae: B+
BW: F

[RogueBeaver]

Thankfully morons who think the Chretien crowd should run are in the fringe minority.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/01/10/liberals-best-calling-card-for-leader-is-rae-say-grits/29229?page_requested=1

[RogueBeaver]

Does Rae's fiery campaign-style speech to caucus suggest a leadership run? Media seems to thinks so.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/01/11/pol-liberal-caucus.html

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/11/john-ivison-bob-rae-finding-liberal-leadership-ambition-hard-to-hide/#more-63504

[RogueBeaver]

Raemania is now a meme.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1114184--bob-rae-talks-of-good-times-not-long-time-as-liberal-party-leader

http://www.thestar.com/article/1114234--walkom-how-bob-rae-has-kept-the-near-dead-liberal-party-alive

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/should-rae-have-his-day-as-liberal-leader/article2299826/

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201201/11/01-4484946-direction-du-plc-bob-rae-relance-les-rumeurs.php

[RogueBeaver]

When do resident Grits expect this contest to formally kick off? I personally find it more interesting than the NDP one...

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/01/12/bob-rae-liberal-leadership_n_1201246.html?ref=canada-politics

[RogueBeaver]

Add Holland to the list.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/01/12/bob-rae-liberal-leadership_n_1201246.html?ref=canada

[RogueBeaver]

Causes of the Quebec decline: lack of policy clarity, lack of leadership, Adscam. 2/3 are now fixed, only time can heal the third.

http://www.lactualite.com/politique/les-nouveaux-habits-du-plc

[RogueBeaver]

McGuinty and Garneau are still considering bids.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/13/john-ivison-raes-lack-of-clarity-could-threaten-liberal-unity/

More Raemania.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1115457--hebert-the-liberals-search-for-a-leader-could-quickly-become-frantic-as-there-is-no-ready-made-alternative-to-bob-rae

http://www.canada.com/Maher%2BLiberal%2Bwheel%2Bmoving%2Bover/5993836/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

David McGuinty: Get back to me in a few months.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/david-mcguinty-mulls-liberal-leadership-bid-at-convention/article2302861/

[RogueBeaver]

President Crawley it is.

[RogueBeaver]

In their case, David was clearly (as Lab is now painfully aware of) the best candidate. On this side of the pond, not so much. Why none of the pundits ever mention Gerard Kennedy mystifies me, since he clearly wants to run and IMO is the best candidate among the likelies.

If Rae doesn't get in, then Kennedy's strongest competitor is LeBland. I've never seen someone even try to make a case that he'd be a good leader. On paper yes, in practice absolutely not.

[RogueBeaver]

Two others I saw mentioned: Martin Cauchon and Martha Hall Findlay. He's a discredited voice from the past, she lost her seat and is too inexperienced. (Though MHF has long been one of my favourite Grits)

LeBland: Totally agreed. Plus the guy's as awkward as Al Gore. There's this picture on the Net where he and Trudeau are walking through a Commons corridor, photographer shows up and next thing you know "spontaneous" hug when the picture's snapped. LeBlanc's face screams excessive, faux mirth, Trudeau smiling but his eyes say "rolleyes." If that's how he acts with his BFF, imagine transplanting that to the campaign trail. Makes the PM's sweater vests look good in comparison.

Most importantly, LeBland's a wimp like Ed Miliband. And that's why he can never be leader. Dion can tell you what the PM does to wimps.

[RogueBeaver]

A la prochaine. Though to be fair, there's not much of substance to be said with his current portfolio. If Rae wants to help him out, give him Natural Resources, where he does deliver crystal-clear centrism.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/16/john-ivison-justin-needs-more-than-a-moustache-to-qualify-as-a-leader/

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201004/30/01-4276086-justin-trudeau-appuie-lexploitation-des-sables-bitumineux.php

[RogueBeaver]

You need policy substance as well. Kennedy would also do well in Ontario and Quebec, plus generally gets positive reaction. Trudeau knows he needs more experience and has always said so since he arrived on the Hill. I agree with you that with time and experience, he'll be a good leader (with the electoral success that entails) but not now.

[RogueBeaver]

Has anyone used the phrase "Yesterday's Baby" re Sheila Copps?

She's certainly a relic of the past who hasn't changed one iota from her Rat Pack days. (See her Hill Times article accusing Kenney, Moore and Baird of being closeted and Harper forcing them to remain closeted) But we call her Tequila Sheila.

[RogueBeaver]

True that, but he also has baggage. Careerists always do a good job.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/bob-raes-advantage-hes-a-political-careerist/article2304310/

[RogueBeaver]

I think the system should have been more properly 2-tiered, and you get prioritized for membership if you're a "supporter" for a given period of time (3-4 yrs?). Other than that, no real objections.

NDP: The analysis shows that especially in Ontario, they lost precisely because of NDP-lite policy (C&T. Case closed.). Regardless of who wins, they're still operating within the Blue Liberal parameters set by Brison. Rae, Kennedy, Garneau, LeBlanc are all on the party's centre-left, and David McGuinty on the centre-right. No wild swings either way.

[RogueBeaver]

PHP: Closest we've gotten to that was when King trounced Dief in 1926 in Prince Albert, though of course no one knew Dief would become PM at that stage.

I think the best strategy would be an Ontario/BC one. Quebec is also important, but not decisively so for OO.

[RogueBeaver]

I know Kinsella has long become a self-parody, but he thinks Rae's egomania will be a major image handicap in the event he keeps his job. Personally I digress somewhat: Rae is an egomaniac but unlike his friend Iggy, he does a better job of concealing it.

[RogueBeaver]

Why is the Alberta Liberal leader's last name Sherman? Is he Anglo-Indian?

Yes.

Last month I noticed that Gerard Kennedy had a domain name registered, which back then said "coming soon." Now it's blank. Since then he's publicly stated consideration of a run, but still... interesting that he wanted to get going so early. Given Rae's long lead, can't blame him.

[RogueBeaver]

Again, no mention of Brison or Kennedy.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/bob-rae-and-beyond-potential-contenders-for-the-top-liberal-job/article2306439/

[RogueBeaver]

No kidding.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Michael+Tandt+duplicity+leadership+must/6011809/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

That's just fluff, ditto for Cauchon.

[RogueBeaver]

So how bad will the anti-Rae backlash be when he runs? I'm guessing it will be mitigated somewhat out of gratefulness for putting them back on a path to recovery, plus retaining OO status de facto if not de jure.

[RogueBeaver]

Frank Graves: Rae is actually popular, even in Ontario. Let's see if that holds up once the Permanent Campaign revs up again.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/jeffrey-simpson/why-harper-is-tuning-out-the-premiers/article2305684/