Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Kinsella has also heard that Trudeau's running, but I'd like to see another MSM story before putting him in the YES column. G&M/TS/CBC usually have Grit scoops, so we should look there in the coming months.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2012/06/justin-trudeau/

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals have to hope Trudeau runs, or else there will be little media interest in this race.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's how I see the situation right now.

1) Grassroots is putting serious pressure on him, especially the Ontarians.

2) Establishment is torn- they feel Rae's experience outweighs his baggage. They like Trudeau but think he should wait one more cycle. (Which is also my opinion)

3) Family remains his top reason to say no.

4) He likes and respects Rae a lot so feels uncomfortable challenging him.

5) Many rank-and-filers who are undecided whether his inexperience or Rae's baggage is a greater problem. Some of whom prefer him personally to Rae- I know some Ontario Liberals like that.

6) Remember '68. Everyone else does the logistics with tacit consent to set up a late entry. Rae is borrowing part of that playbook by having Jim whatshisface organizing ethnic support.

If I had to predict it right now, it would be like Chris Christie last fall: saying he reconsidered but the answer is still no.

[RogueBeaver]

If he changes his mind, it won't be this summer. Rae will be in 3 weeks from now, along with others like Kennedy, BW and MHF at various points.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1205292--liberal-leadership-race-to-heat-up-in-june-once-bob-rae-s-intentions-are-clear?bn=1

[RogueBeaver]

Race kicks off in July.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/09/pol-the-house-mike-crawley-bob-rae-leadership.html

[RogueBeaver]

Keys are a turnin'. So, does anyone else join this party? Say, MHF or BW?

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/trudeau-not-prodded-into-race-158399885.html

[RogueBeaver]

I'd give Rae a slight advantage as the much more experienced quasi-incumbent. Should be interesting to see how the $$$ and various demographics fall.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1209577--hebert-justin-trudeau-s-best-option-may-lie-in-the-future

[HagridOfTheDeep]

There are few politicians I dislike more than Justin Trudeau. He just makes my skin crawl.

Canadians like him because of the name recognition. But once they hear him speak (or, should I say, hear the way he completely talks down to people), I don't see him becoming Prime Minister. I certainly hope not. I'd rather Mulcair than this chump.

[RogueBeaver]

Have to disagree with you Hagrid, and I'm not the only one.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/06/09/as-liberal-party-considers-letting-bob-rae-run-for-leader-canadians-say-they-prefer-justin-trudeau/

I'd take Kinsella with a grain of salt. Not just the usual reasons but also because he seems to be playing the role Newman played for PET in '68.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/06/11/justin-time-for-liberal-leadership

[MaxQue]

Again, I remind to English Canadians than a Trudeau is totally unacceptable to French Québécois.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't know whether MHF or BW will run. Kennedy is out, ditto LeBland. My question is who gets the interim nod: Brison or Garneau. Brison has worse French but far better economic credentials.

[Hatman 🍁]

Again, I remind to English Canadians than a Trudeau is totally unacceptable to French Québécois.

Shh!

Meh, who left in the Liberals wouldn't be unacceptable to Quebec?

[MaxQue]

Again, I remind to English Canadians than a Trudeau is totally unacceptable to French Québécois.

Shh!

Meh, who left in the Liberals wouldn't be unacceptable to Quebec?

I don't know, most Liberals left are unknown in Quebec. And Anglos and immigrants love Trudeau, usually, I think. The problem is French people.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I still think once the average Canadian gets to know Trudeau more, they will realize he's not his father.

But I really don't know who can save the Liberals. Rae will play out horribly in Ontario.

[pugbug]

I still think once the average Canadian gets to know Trudeau more, they will realize he's not his father.

But I really don't know who can save the Liberals. Rae will play out horribly in Ontario.

But how well will Canadians get to know him unless he wins? Leadership elections aren't the same as parliamentary elections in terms of candidates getting to know the public.

[RogueBeaver]

Ian McDonald seems to think the major task for whoever wins the captaincy of Team Red will be in Ontario. I disagree somewhat: that's one of them. The other one is toppling Team Orange in Quebec- in other words, pulling them down from about 42% now to low 30s or high 20s with BQ help.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/Does+really+want/6771238/story.html

As for whether Rae really wants it, I think we can assume he does when he said the announcement will come by month's end.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I still think once the average Canadian gets to know Trudeau more, they will realize he's not his father.

But I really don't know who can save the Liberals. Rae will play out horribly in Ontario.

But how well will Canadians get to know him unless he wins? Leadership elections aren't the same as parliamentary elections in terms of candidates getting to know the public.

I never said he wouldn't be the leader of the Liberals. Just not Prime Minister. The Liberals excel at choosing leaders who Canadians will detest, and I don't think Trudeau will break the trend. That's all.

[RogueBeaver]

Now the decision is apparently a tossup, i.e. "Yes, but I'm not announcing for a bit."

http://www.680news.com/news/national/article/372569--trudeau-says-there-s-pressure-on-him-to-run-in-liberal-leadership-race

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1210354--bob-rae-s-wait-for-grit-crown-has-been-long-but-does-party-prefer-justin-trudeau

[pugbug]

Ha! I think it's really funny that Trudeau gained popularity after he won that boxing match, almost as if everyone was thinking, "He's a great boxer, he MUST be a great party leader!" I mean, he beat a conservative in the ring, which means he MUST want to beat them in elections (already a given), and his participation in the match at all seems to mean he wants to run for the party leadership.

I know it's not that simple, but the conclusions some people seem to have drawn, especially journalists, are so presumptive and, quite frankly, ridiculous. Technically the match wasn't supposed to be about politics but we all know it was, but THIS, is just so silly...

[lilTommy]

WHOA! what? anyone know if this is true?... i thought Rae was actually going to do the wrong thing and run... but i'm stunned if this is true.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1210606--bob-rae-won-t-run-for-liberal-leadership-sources-say?bn=1

Is this a push to have Trudeau run? I think its sentimental, he's a TRUDEAU so they want his as leader. Hes also young, and rather good looking, and arrogantly-charming if that makes sense, but they don't mention him only "Marc Garneau, David McGuinty, Joyce Murray and Dominic LeBlanc"

[RogueBeaver]

G&M mentions Trudeau. He almost has to run because the other potentials are political unknowns or liabilities.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/rae-wont-seek-liberal-leadership/article4255399/

As usual, Funke is correct.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/06/what-the-liberals-can-learn-from-the-ndp-leadership-race/

[RogueBeaver]

Rae just wrapped up his presser in the Commons foyer. Said the decision was based on a) political calculations b) his previous commitment c) his final decision was made last weekend.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Ugh. When there's a leadership election for the other party, I usually do try to consider who would make the best Prime Minister if the party was to come into power. I actually think Rae is a good guy and has some solid leadership qualities. I'm kind of disappointed.

He did take one for the team though--Bob Rae wouldn't have been a good fit for the 905.

Here's hoping he knows Trudeau will be a flop and is waiting to be the party's only hope sometime down the road.

[lilTommy]

Ugh. When there's a leadership election for the other party, I usually do try to consider who would make the best Prime Minister if the party was to come into power. I actually think Rae is a good guy and has some solid leadership qualities. I'm kind of disappointed.

He did take one for the team though--Bob Rae wouldn't have been a good fit for the 905.

Here's hoping he knows Trudeau will be a flop and is waiting to be the party's only hope sometime down the road.

... if thats the case, Rae you waited for two leaders to flop (and they did)... at this rate he might, MIGHT be leader... when hes 80.

Rae made far too many mistakes to be considered "electable as PM" even if i agree hes a fantastic speaker and has some good leadership qualities.

[RogueBeaver]

Having heard Rae speak in person, I totally agree with Tommy.

IMO this increases the likelihood that Trudeau will run. The others are too unknown and the party will be a sitting duck for death by media asphyxiation (see BQ for details) with anyone else.