Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[DL]

Apparently (Joyce) Murray will be the token left-Liberal in the race. Go figure.

That's pretty laughable. Joyce Murray's previous claim to fame was to have been a cabinet minister in the ultra-rightwing first term Gordon Campbell government. She went berzerk as a Campbell BC Liberal - first as environment minister where she was pilloried as the "minister AGAINST the environment" where she gleefully tore up environmental regulations and did as she was told by the forestry and mining industry...then she was health minister where she went out of her way to privatize services, and crush the union representing the most low paid health care workers.   

[RogueBeaver]

Garneau let the cat out of the bag, still no official announcement.

http://www.leaderpost.com/technology/Garneau+touts+importance+west/7598325/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Garneau is announcing next Wednesday.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/11/23/marc-garneau-to-announce-liberal-leadership-bid-next-week

[justfollowingtheelections]

I don't know much about Canadian politics, but I was wondering whether something happened after the most recent elections, or things are just returning to "normal".
What I mean by this is that the NDP was for the first time the 2nd biggest party and the Greens also did very well.
But when I was looking at the most recent polls, Trudeau, if he became the leader would be able to win the federal elections, by getting more than half the voters who went with the NDP in 2011.
Are these people simply "returning home"?
Has the NDP lost some of its appeal due to its leader's death?
Has the NDP done a bad job in the House?
Also what about the Greens?  Why are they losing voters to Trudeau?
Why is Trudeau so popular?  Is it his good looks, his father or something I am not aware of?

Any answers would be greatly appreciated!

[Hatman 🍁]

The same people who were attracted to Layton's charisma are also attracted to Trudeau's. There is a large percentage of people who are on the non ideological-left that can switch between both parties.

[King of Kensington]

That may be so, but I don't want anyone to get the impression that Layton and Justin Trudeau are/were of equal intellectual calibre.

When Jack was 30 he was a faculty member at Ryerson University.  Justin had a very thin resume at 35, he was a substitute drama teacher with no real accomplishments whatsoever except having a famous father.   His father of course was one of Quebec's leading intellectuals long before that.

[DC Al Fine]

That may be so, but I don't want anyone to get the impression that Layton and Justin Trudeau are/were of equal intellectual calibre.

When Jack was 30 he was a faculty member at Ryerson University.  Justin had a very thin resume at 35, he was a substitute drama teacher with no real accomplishments whatsoever except having a famous father.   His father of course was one of Quebec's leading intellectuals long before that.

True, but the sort of people hatman is talking about don't really care about intellectual bona fides.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

There's also the fact that Jack Layton was actually an honourable man and Trudeau is a grade-A snob/opportunist.

[justfollowingtheelections]

So is the NDP expected to lose many of its voters because of Layton's death?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I'm not the biggest follower of Canadian politics (probably should be, considering I'm a Canadian ), but I don't think Jack's death is totally to blame. Had Bob Rae decided to seek the Liberal leadership, Trudeau probably would've waited and a lot of those NDP seats would've been more secure. Trudeau as leader will probably create a mindless bandwagon effect that should do a lot to equalize the standing of the Liberals and NDP.

That said, it's entirely possible that people will really dislike Justin when they see what he's actually about. All you have to do is listen to the guy speak to know he's totally full of shit. Much like how the first presidential debate showed people that Mitt was a viable alternative, the Candian debates could actually show people that Justin isn't the man they think he is.

[Hatman 🍁]

Trudeau is one gaffe away from being a flavour of the month. But, he needs to make that gaffe...

[RogueBeaver]

Joyce Murray is in, she's giving a presser right now.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/national/Joyce+Murray+enters+federal+Liberal+leadership+race/7610591/story.html


She supports a carbon tax, a new electoral system and ABC cooperation.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Joyce+Murray+joins+Liberal+leadership+calls+cooperation/7610636/story.html

[DL]

So Joyce Murray - formerly a cabinet minister in Gordon Campbell's rabidly rightwing "BC Liberal" government - is coming out for cooperation on the left to defeat Harper. I guess she has experience with "cooperation", as a BC Liberal she was a powerful cabinet minister for a party that was created as a "unite the right" coalition to keep the NDP out of power.

What a hypocrit!

[DC Al Fine]

I don't know much about Canadian politics, but I was wondering whether something happened after the most recent elections, or things are just returning to "normal".
What I mean by this is that the NDP was for the first time the 2nd biggest party and the Greens also did very well.
But when I was looking at the most recent polls, Trudeau, if he became the leader would be able to win the federal elections, by getting more than half the voters who went with the NDP in 2011.
Are these people simply "returning home"?
Has the NDP lost some of its appeal due to its leader's death?
Has the NDP done a bad job in the House?
Also what about the Greens?  Why are they losing voters to Trudeau?
Why is Trudeau so popular?  Is it his good looks, his father or something I am not aware of?

Any answers would be greatly appreciated!

The Greens did mediocre in the last election. They won their first seat, but their vote share decreased substantially.

To explain the NDP/Liberal phenomenon, there is a large portion of the electorate who are anti-Harper voters who don't have any party loyalty. These people would be safe Democrats in America, but since we have multiple left leaning parties they have to choose one. They will just vote for whichever left leaning party looks like a winner. The combination of the NDP losing their leader and a charismatic Liberal leader in-waiting is causing some of those generic lefties to shift NDP.

Our Greens are much more right wing than normal Greens (I could see myself voting for them if the Conservatives bugged me enough). While most Greens serve as a hard left party, our Greens are slightly left of centre, and around the same spot as the Liberals and let's their supporters easily shift between the two.

Trudeau is popular because he's pretty, charismatic, and his last name is Trudeau. This may not last though. Much as I hated his Dad, I had a grudging respect for him. Justin strikes me as an airhead.

[RogueBeaver]

So Garneau's in tomorrow morning, no leaks about what his platform will be. We know he's on the party right- indeed apparently had PC sympathies in the '80s. Murray might be doing a backflip from her Victorian days to grab ideological left-Liberals disappointed in Trudeau's stances on trade/energy.

[RogueBeaver]

Garneau is in, the field is complete.

http://o.canada.com/2012/11/28/garneau-enters-liberal-race-pledging-to-focus-on-economy/

[DC Al Fine]

Garneau is in, the field is complete.

No MP's with an axe to grind willing to run?

[RogueBeaver]

Who were you thinking of?

[DC Al Fine]

Who were you thinking of?

David Orchard! Yeah I know he's not an MP, but I figured some fringe guy has to join the race right?

[RogueBeaver]

The debates should be interesting... if the stage isn't too crowded with people other than Coyne and the 4 MPs.

[Meeker]

I'm guessing the campaigns have taken note of this and are adjusting accordingly, but the method of selecting a winner for this is pretty wacky. It's basically the U.S. electoral college if all 50 states had an equal number of votes. Any candidate who can rack up victories in rural/exurban ridings and not get slaughtered in suburban/urban ones has a pretty good chance of victory. A vote coming from rural Alberta, or any riding with very few LPC supporters, is worth significantly more than a vote from Toronto or Montreal.

[DC Al Fine]

The debates should be interesting... if the stage isn't too crowded with people other than Coyne and the 4 MPs.

I think we'll be ok. It's not like all of them could raise the 75k entrance fee.

I'm guessing the campaigns have taken note of this and are adjusting accordingly, but the method of selecting a winner for this is pretty wacky. It's basically the U.S. electoral college if all 50 states had an equal number of votes. Any candidate who can rack up victories in rural/exurban ridings and not get slaughtered in suburban/urban ones has a pretty good chance of victory. A vote coming from rural Alberta, or any riding with very few LPC supporters, is worth significantly more than a vote from Toronto or Montreal.

That's the Conservative's system IIRC.

[Meeker]

Here are the rules if anyone else wants to read them: http://www.liberal.ca/leadership-2013/faq/

It also means that any sort of national polling is pretty worthless unless one candidate has a massive lead in April.

[Smid]

I'm guessing the campaigns have taken note of this and are adjusting accordingly, but the method of selecting a winner for this is pretty wacky. It's basically the U.S. electoral college if all 50 states had an equal number of votes. Any candidate who can rack up victories in rural/exurban ridings and not get slaughtered in suburban/urban ones has a pretty good chance of victory. A vote coming from rural Alberta, or any riding with very few LPC supporters, is worth significantly more than a vote from Toronto or Montreal.

So basically, the US Senate?

[RogueBeaver]

As I always say: best logistician wins the war. Garneau's campaign is being managed by Andy Mitchell, BTW.