Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[MaxQue]

Justin Trudeau

MP since: 2008
Riding: Papineau, QC
Frontbench: Immigration, Youth
Cabinet: N/A
Age: 39
Party wing: Centrist
Pros: universal name recognition, telegenic, charismatic, prodigious fundraiser.
Cons: Insufficient policy depth.

Trudeau family is hated in Quebec, must I remember you?

[MaxQue]

Any others of the 34 MPs we covered who are bilingual?  Pretty much anyone who is not bilingual we can exclude.

The whole Quebec Liberal caucus is bilingual, I think.

While we obviously exclude Stéphane Dion, there is Francis Scarpaleggia (voted against gay marriage, a big Dion supporter, 53, unknown in Quebec, unlikely), Massimo Pacetti (Italian (!), 48, totally unknown in Quebec, unlikely) and Irwin Cotler (a world-class lawyer on human rights, former Justice minister, but aged 71 and he doesn't seem to be interested by power.)

[MaxQue]

Massimo Pacetti is an Italian from Montreal, so he has Mafia links, yes?

Considering the current corruption scandals in Québec, that would be an amalgam than most people would do. (For those not aware, there is big scandals about collusion between unions and big building businesses, between businesses and cities and towns for the attribution of contracts, between unions, and organised crime so unions can scare rival unions, businesses and organised crime so rival businesses don't apply for the contracts, between businesses, so cities pay inflated prices for contracts, between businesses and the provincial Liberal Party, between the businesses and local politicians in the style of "I pay all your campaign, but you give me all the contracts" and, finally, between local politicians and provincial politicians in the style of "I pay you and help you, but you try to convince the province to help me and the businesses who pay me". Many of the bosses' of the businesses have Italian names and one MNA named Tony Tomassi was expelled from the Liberal caucus and of his Minister of Family office. The mayors of Laval, St-Jérome, Terrebonne and Mascouche, among others, are suspected, too.)

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

[MaxQue]

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

That would be one more Liberal seat in Quebec that the NDP could easily scoop up in a byelection. There are also rumours that Stephane Dion will quit.

Not so easily. Bourassa has a big Italian population. The Italians seems to be still in the Liberal Party, see Saint-Michel--Saint-Léonard.

I have family there, and he doesn't see the Liberals losing it. Well, to be fair, I didn't thought BQ could lose Abitibi--Témiscamingue and they lost it by around 10000 votes.

[MaxQue]

For Coderre, the rumors have him running for Montreal's mayorship in 2013. He didn't denyed than he was interested.

That would be one more Liberal seat in Quebec that the NDP could easily scoop up in a byelection. There are also rumours that Stephane Dion will quit.

Not so easily. Bourassa has a big Italian population. The Italians seems to be still in the Liberal Party, see Saint-Michel--Saint-Léonard.

I have family there, and he doesn't see the Liberals losing it. Well, to be fair, I didn't thought BQ could lose Abitibi--Témiscamingue and they lost it by around 10000 votes.

Would a similar comparison also be Vaughan, which may have seen the Liberal vote fall, but the voters swung to the Conservatives, rather than the NDP? If it's not similar, disregard, but if it is, perhaps low expectations for the Tories may allow the Liberals to hang onto the vote rather than seeing it go NDP?

No. Liberal won over NDP 41-32. Conservatives were 4th, at 8%.

Medium income in Bourassa is also around 2/3 of the medium income (and the half of medium earnings) in Vaughan.
And while Bourassa is heavily Italian, but more than 50% of the population has French has first language (sure, many Haitians are included in that).

So, very different. It also includes a part of the poor and black Montreal-Nord.

EDIT: Never mind, I was reading the number of people having income.

EDIT 2, with a "chart"

              Earnings      Income (for a person)    Income (for an household)
Bourassa  20,106$      19,054$                        33,523$
Vaughan   34,885$      30,053$                       86,915$

Well, the last column is clear.

[MaxQue]

Finally, the Convention won't be between November 1st, 2012 and June 30th, 2013, but between March 1st, 2013 and June 30th, 2013.

So, I think the title can be changed.

[MaxQue]

Oh, no, not him. I'm not able to say his name.

By the way, your link is broken, you need to delate the ''http'' at the end.

[MaxQue]

Why people think than Trudeau will be an asset outside of Montreal?

[MaxQue]

I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

[MaxQue]

I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

What specifically are you thinking of? If it's Adscam, I think only time will erode that.

They are seen as an Urban, Anglo party.

[MaxQue]

I must concur.

Liberal can perhaps retake some seats in rural Quebec (i.e. my seat which was Liberal from 1997 to 2004), but it would need a big change in the culture of the party.

What specifically are you thinking of? If it's Adscam, I think only time will erode that.

They are seen as an Urban, Anglo party.

And they weren't when Chretien was leader? Their stance on federalism hasn't changed since then either, so I wouldn't say that's the issue.

In politics, all is relative. They looked much more pro-French than Reform or NDP before 2006.

[MaxQue]

I agree, the Liberals need to have a leader who is definetly moderate/centre right... they need to win back those who bolted to the Tories and cost them prime seats in ontario. I think their days of trying to "out-ndp-the-ndp" are over. I think especially now and by 2015 the tories will continue to look far-right win and the Liberals could win back some ground in ontario and BC in those moderate, urban Centre Right areas; affluent but socially progressive.

Then the choice is David McGuinty, since Scott Brison cannot be nominated. Or you have a centre-left leader who adopts Brison's manifesto (which I posted a while back), i.e. Kennedy or LeBlanc. Pearson and Sharp, PET and Turner, Chretien and Martin provide ample precedent.

Given what the Chrétien-Martin "cold" feud did to the party, I'm not sure it is a good model.

[MaxQue]

Tremblay? A lock for his 4th term?
Considering he was elected because the opposition vote splitted almost perfectly, I doubt it.

[MaxQue]

Without baggage?
It's because of him than Dion became leader!

[MaxQue]

Well, doesn't Bob Rae the least worst of their choice?

[MaxQue]

But Kennedy is totally unknown out of Ontario and he has no seat.

[MaxQue]

Again, I remind to English Canadians than a Trudeau is totally unacceptable to French Québécois.

[MaxQue]

Again, I remind to English Canadians than a Trudeau is totally unacceptable to French Québécois.

Shh!

Meh, who left in the Liberals wouldn't be unacceptable to Quebec?

I don't know, most Liberals left are unknown in Quebec. And Anglos and immigrants love Trudeau, usually, I think. The problem is French people.

[MaxQue]

You're right. But electability has never mattered in Liberal leadership races. I'm telling you: The Liberals will chose another flop.

Well, as all the prospective candidates are probably flops, it isn't a very risky statement.

[MaxQue]

Apart from an Orange Massacre in Quebec, no idea how those numbers crunch.

Which would be awful becauce Trudeau seems very incompetent. He has no business being there and wouldn't be if he wasn't the son of his father.

[MaxQue]

Deborah Coyne to enter. Rick Mercer should have fun with this.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/deborah-coyne-entering-liberal-leadership-race/article4373408/

Well, the Liberal vote would collapse even more in Quebec with her, as she is one of the responsibles of failure of Meech.

[MaxQue]

Deborah Coyne to enter. Rick Mercer should have fun with this.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/deborah-coyne-entering-liberal-leadership-race/article4373408/

Well, the Liberal vote would collapse even more in Quebec with her, as she is one of the responsibles of failure of Meech.

If anyone remembers who she is. It'll be lonely out there for at least the next 2 months. I will give her credit for a very detailed manifesto though.

http://www.deborahcoyne.ca/myvisionforcanada/

I'm pretty sure some party will remind us if needed.

[MaxQue]

I never liked Trudeau... and does this kid have anything special or is he just Trudeau's son? He needs a damn haircut- looks like a drummer in a rock band

Well, he is Trudeau's son. He did nothing special, unless being goofy counts.

[MaxQue]

What it is telling than all those marginal candidates are trying to run?

[MaxQue]

Would be kinda hard for a sitting HC to make a political endorsement.

HC?