Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[mileslunn]

I would agree that McGuinty is centrist, while Trudeau is centre-left.  I don't know about his son, but his father was very much a supporter of bigger government.

I would add a few who are not MPs

Gerard Kennedy

Position: Centre-left

Pros: Originally from the West and a strong supporter of greater grassroots support.

Cons: A weak performer in the last parliamentary session and couldn't hold his own seat

Martha Hall-Findlay

Position: Centrist

Pros: a woman, not part of the old boys club who has long dominated the Liberal Party and has a positive vision to make people want to support the Liberals instead of running on fear of the opponents.

Cons: largely unknown and lost her own seat


Ken Dryden

Position: Centre-left

Pros: a hockey great which is Canada's national sport and also the architect behind Canada's failed childcare program.

Cons: Almost invisible in opposition and couldn't win his own seat

John McCallum

Position: Centrist to centre-right

Pros: bilingual and has a strong financial background so could help the Liberals regain their strength on the economic front which they have surrendered to the Tories.

Cons: Comes across as rather arrogant and not rather appealing, in many ways a big turn off.

John Manley

Position: Centre-right

Pros: Has much experience and very strong credentials, particularly on the economic front.

Cons: His centre-right positions might cause some left leaning Liberals to migrate to the NDP.  Also considering the amount of money he makes in the private sector, I don't see any advantage in returning to recisitate and third party

Frank McKenna

Position : Centre-right

Pros: A very successful premier who won every single seat in New Brunswick which was a province that went largely Conservative.  Also has lots of experience and knows how to win.

Cons: Been out of politics too long and may have trouble appealing to the left wing of the Liberal Party due to his strong Bay Street connections.  Also he makes way more money in the private sector than he ever would as Liberal leader thus monetarily little incentive to run for the position.

[mileslunn]

I guess you could add Carolyn Bennett, the only problem is I don't think she speaks very much French.  Sheila Copps seems too much from the past, so unlikely if you ask me.  Anne McLellan would be an interesting choice although considering the Liberals are pretty much non-existent in Alberta, I am not sure how keen they would be on choosing someone from that province especially considering that she would face an uphill battle winning her own seat.  Heck from 1993 right through 2004 she never won her seat by very much and that was when the Liberals were much stronger.  As with Carolyn Bennett, the one plus she has is that she is a doctor and considering how important health care will be as an issue in future elections, that could help I guess.  Any others of the 34 MPs we covered who are bilingual?  Pretty much anyone who is not bilingual we can exclude.

[mileslunn]

While it is true the Conservatives did well amongst the Italians in Ontario, that doesn't necessarily transfer over to the Quebec.  Pretty much amongst any ethnic group, they will do better in Ontario than in Quebec.  Still I think the NDP could potentially gain Bourassa if it is an open seat.  By-elections take on their own personalities so really tough to say.

As for another leader, how about David Orchard.  He loves to be a tourist in parties that were once strong but a former shell of themselves.  And unlike the NDP who promise to renegotiate NAFTA, he promises to rip it up.  And he is from the West.  Now to be serious I don't think he would win, but considering how many loyal followers he has who will follow him to any party he might play kingmaker much like he did in the PCs.

[mileslunn]

Orchard: You're joking right?

No I am not actually.  He won't win the Liberal leadership but much like the PC leadership race he could play kingmaker.  He has about 30,000 loyal followers who will go wherever he goes.  He is almost a cult like leader in some ways.

As for joking matter here are mine though.

Joe Volpe: He can not only win amongst those eligible to vote, but is popular amongst the dead and kids.  Heck I am sure he can find a way to get cats and dogs to support him. 


Gordon Campbell:  If people get tired of the Tories perhaps they will turn to another free enterprise option.  After all he replaced the BC Liberals as the free enterprise party which was previously the Social Credit.  And he could learn French easily, after all his wife was a French teacher (and BTW I actually had her as my French teacher in elementary school and this is not a joke.  I didn't know much about politics back then, but everyone was hoping Campbell would run for premier so they could get rid of her as she gave out detentions, more homework than other teachers and had no problem failing you if you deserved it unlike some other teachers.  She taught at Queen Mary Elementary School which is on the West Side of Vancouver for those of you who are interested.)

Garth Turner: Loves to spout off and as a leader of the turd party as Chretien would say he can spout off all he wants.  In fact the Liberals needs as much media attention as possible.  The danger is being marginalized.

Jennifer Granholm:  Ignatieff didn't live outside of Canada long enough and we need someone who is both a dual citizen and lived outside of Canada for a long time.  After all she only lived her first three years of her life in Canada.  For those of you who don't recongize the name, she is the former Democrat governor of Michigan

[mileslunn]

I think unless the party's numbers increase dramatically they will probably chose from one of the current MPs.  Choosing one who isn't an MP is too risky as that means someone has to step aside for them and there weren't too many seats they won by comfortable margins meaning there is a risk of the leader losing the by-election.  In terms of current MPs, my thoughts on potentials are Scott Brison, Dominic LeBlanc, Justin Trudeau, Denis Coderre, Marc Garneau, Bob Rae (yes I know he isn't suppose to run, but this could be changed), Carolyn Bennett, Jim Karygiannis, David McGuinty, and Ralph Goodale.  Anybody else have see any other MPs who might make a run?

[mileslunn]

McGuinty's main baggage is his brother is premier.  While his brother was re-elected provincially, I am not sure people in Ontario want two McGuinty's in power at once, still he is a possibility.  Leblanc seems a like a good choice as he is bilingual, not from Toronto, Ottawa, or Montreal, from a rural riding (most rural ridings the party is irrelevant), although he does have the Chretien baggage.  As for Brison, the problem I think is many of the positions he took when in the Progressive Conservatives (scrapping regional development programs, supporting two tiered health care) would be a little much to stomach for the Liberals.  There seems to be little appetite to pull the party to the right of the centre.  As for Karygiannis, I don't think he will win, but I wouldn't be shocked if he ran and depending on how many show up he might do quite well.  As much of a sleazeball as he is, he is quite popular amongst many of the ethnic communities and could get a lot of votes here.  He also could help the Liberals regain their support amongst the ethnic voters, the only problem is unlike Kenney, he comes across too much of someone who wants to pander to them and that could backfire elsewhere whereas Kenney seems to be more careful to not go so far overboard it backfires elsewhere.  Likewise surprisingly a large number of those from ethnic communities actually resent politicians that single them out.  Many just want politicians to listen to their concerns and ensure they are addressed but still treat them as Canadians, not a different group.

[mileslunn]

I agree Brison's policies would help the Liberals, but the problem is support for those policies in the party is mostly in areas the party has a weak membership and has lost ground in.  During the 90s when the Liberals were strong throughout Ontario, not just the 416 area code and averaging close to 25% in the West (not enough to win seats, but certainly a much stronger base than they have now in the West) those policies would have been an easier sell.  A lot of Liberals still reminisce back to the Trudeau era of an activist government, despite the fact the NDP has largely cornered that market today and the percentage of the population who supports this is not as large as it once was.  Sure we may support a more activist government than the US has, but that doesn't mean going to the extreme of the 60s or 70s either. 

As for Karygiannis, he is not well know nationally and I don't think he could win and never mind I think the primary system makes it a lot more difficult for him than the previous one.  Under the older system, he just has to sign up a huge number of instant members from a certain cultural community, which he can do quite easily, and then when it comes time to playing kingmaker, he has enough members to influence the final outcome.  But with the primary system I doubt he will go far.  And this is a good thing, as he is a very sleazy politician much like Joe Volpe was whom I heard some Liberals were actually happy to see him lose his seat last election.

[mileslunn]

Why people think than Trudeau will be an asset outside of Montreal?

  If anything I think he would be better outside of Quebec.  Lets remember the Trudeau name is still quite popular in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.  By contrast the two provinces where Pierre Trudeau had the highest negative ratings were Alberta and Quebec albeit for different reasons (in the former for the National Energy Program and later for repatriating the constitution without Quebec's approval). 

[mileslunn]

IMO, the candidates should pledge to muzzle Tequila Sheila after that bizarre trollish rant of hers in the Hill Times.

Also, looks like Kennedy doesn't see his thumping as an obstacle. The problem is that there are no vacant seats in Ontario for him to run in should he win unless McCallum retires voluntarily and Kennedy tries to capture it. If Kennedy does enter, then the soft prog wing will fracture between he and Kodak- plus Trudeau stays neutral because he's close to both of them.

http://www.gerardkennedy.liberal.ca/

A lot depends on the polls too.  The Liberals didn't win any of the 11 ridings by massive margins thus no guarantee they would win again, never mind the Tories always seem to either do really well in by-elections where they are competitive or bomb them where not competitive thus making it easier for the NDP.  My guess is their base is more motivated to show up so they benefit from lower turnouts while in ridings they stand no chance they put no resources into it, thus why they perform poorly.

[mileslunn]

True York West is pretty safe, but by-elections are unpredictable so unless one wins by more than 30 points, it is a bit of a gamble and I think there were only 2 ridings nationally where the Liberals won by more than 30 points, both in Newfoundland & Laborador.  In addition their strength there is more a holdover from the ABC campaign Danny Williams ran so it remains to be seen how long this will last.  Off course if the Liberals are polling at over 30% nationally then they probably could risk one stepping down, but until they can stay above 30% for an extended period of time, it seems a bit risky.

[mileslunn]

For Liberal leader lets wait and see.  With Mulcair being more centrist, maybe they will move more to the right than left figuring their best shot is to pick up soft Conservative supporters rather than soft NDP supporters.  Or perhaps they will choose Rae and with the ideological gap between the parties being largely eliminated, they will end up merging eventually.

[mileslunn]

That's exactly what Brison has been doing in rewriting their economic platform. After Saturday's events, now the Anglo media is yet again suggesting that Trudeau will jump in despite his consistent "a la prochaine" stance.

I think Trudeau being a child while his father was PM probably realizes how little he saw him and doesn't want his children to experience the same.  He has stated as a father of young children, he has no interest in running at this point.  Besides he is only as well known as well as he is due to his family name, not anything he has done and once put under the microscope he would probably disappoint.  The fact Dion, Ignatieff, and Rae were all reluctant to give him prominent positions probably says what they think of his capabilities.  They only use him during campaigns as some people still love the Trudeau name and will vote for the party based on him.

[mileslunn]

In other words the Liberals will be the "boutique" party for people who are too smart o toe conservative and too rich o toe NDP!

Could work in the suburbs as well as some of the uber wealthy urban ridings.  Although I think this might seem like the logical direction to go, there still is a very strong element amongst the older guard who favour an activist government and still assume (perhaps rightly or maybe wrongly) we will see things return to normal next time around.

[mileslunn]

For Liberal leader lets wait and see.  With Mulcair being more centrist, maybe they will move more to the right than left figuring their best shot is to pick up soft Conservative supporters rather than soft NDP supporters.  Or perhaps they will choose Rae and with the ideological gap between the parties being largely eliminated, they will end up merging eventually.

Why has there been so much merger talk lately?

Because many believe that much like on the right that is the only realistic way to win.  The PCs and Reform/Alliance back in the 90s stood fully against the idea of the merger, but yet eventually they did merge and look how well it worked out.  Chretien thinks its a good idea and like him or not, he is one who knows how to win.  You will also notice he made sure he never angered the two parties on the right enough to force them to merge as he knew full well he would be in trouble if it happened.  I wouldn't vote for such party, but fully support the idea and actually believe it will eventually happen.  The other possibility is to run paper candidates in ridings where the party is weak and the other is strong and then form a coalition after the election.

[mileslunn]

Even if the Liberals remain the third party in 2015, they might not merge. Look at the UK Liberals after they permanently lost un des deux status.

Speaking of Bob Rae, why he has been whining nonstop ever since Mulcair's election? It's unseemly for a man of his calibre and experience. If he's that thin-skinned now, I can only imagine what he'll do once the ad barrage goes up in Ontario.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/04/tension-between-ndp-liberals-as-rae-calls-mulcair-a-mini-harper/

Depends on the numbers.  If similar to 2003 for the Alliance and PCs they might very well as in 2003 the PCs were struggling just to stay afloat, while the Alliance was in no threat of going under, but they also realized they had no chance at winning on their own so if the 2015 election puts the NDP in the position the Alliance was in 2003 and the Liberals are in the position the PCs were in 2003, I think its is highly probable they will merge.  Also I should note Rae comes from the Chretien wing and they are generally pro-merger as opposed to the Martin wing which is generally against it.

[mileslunn]

Why would the NDP have any interest in merging with the Liberals when all the polls show the NDP already dead even with the Tories even with the Liberals still staggering through their death rattle with 19% of the vote. It was a totally different situation when the PCs and the Canadian Alliance merged in 2003. The Liberals under Paul Martin were consistently polling over 50% and the PCs and Tories were both in the teens. They realized that merging was the only way to escape annhilation. At the time they weren't even thinking about winning - it was about survival. The NDP has good reason to believe they can win the next election on their own. Why waste time playing games with the dying Liberals?

That might be what the polls say but when you look at a riding by riding breakdown as well as the fact the Liberals were the second place party until recently, I still see parallels.  Maybe not in the next few years, but in the long term.

[mileslunn]

So is Joyce Murray, apparently.

That would be an interesting pick.  She is from the West where the Liberals only have four seats, quite strong on the environment yet was a member of the BC Liberals who are centre-right as opposed to centre-left.  Certainly I am sure the NDP will bring up her support of Gordon Campbell in the hopes of wooing left leaning Liberals away as many of those vote NDP provincially, although outside BC most don't have too strong an opinion either way on Campbell and in BC the Liberals federally are pretty much dead outside Vancouver and a few suburban ridings meaning most are already in the Conservative or NDP camp.

[mileslunn]

Joyce Murray would be a joke of a candidate she was an Eco-terrorist as Environment Minister in the EXTREME rightwing Campbell government...I don't think she speaks any French either.

  I wouldn't call Gordon Campbell extreme right, but certainly not a Liberal, at least not in the North American sense (In Europe he would be as liberal there means for as little government as possible otherwise right wing economically, left wing on moral issues).  On the environment who was pretty lousy in his first term when she was minister, but quite a different story in the second term, after all that is when BC became the first province to introduce a carbon tax.  The reality is the BC Liberals have always been a coalition of blue Liberals and Tories so in his first term he needed to convince conservatives he wasn't really a Liberal as many were uncomfortable supporting a party with a liberal moniker whereas by the end of his first term many Liberals felt he was just a conservative in liberal clothing so he had to in his second term convince them he hadn't totally abandoned them.

Anyways Murray seems like maybe someone who could be a good cabinet minister, but not leadership material never mind she cannot speak French.  Realistically the Liberals need to chose a Francophone Quebecer if they want to return to opposition and then government the following election.  Quebec is the only province where a party can go from single digits to almost 50% in a single election, i.e. PCs in 1984 and NDP in 2012.  No other province can you get such a large swing in one election, at least not upwards, maybe downwards though.

[mileslunn]

Martha Hall Findlay could be interesting.  I doubt she will win, but she could easily expose Trudeau's weaknesses.  She also strikes me as a blue liberal thus she probably wouldn't pick up much from the NDP but could siphon off some soft Tory supporters, particularly in the crucial 905 belt.