Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[lilTommy]

I agree, the Liberals need to have a leader who is definetly moderate/centre right... they need to win back those who bolted to the Tories and cost them prime seats in ontario. I think their days of trying to "out-ndp-the-ndp" are over. I think especially now and by 2015 the tories will continue to look far-right win and the Liberals could win back some ground in ontario and BC in those moderate, urban Centre Right areas; affluent but socially progressive.

[lilTommy]

Harper on the Liberal "lemmings"

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/liberal-lemmings-headed-off-cliff-with-rae-tories-charge/article2295840/

we saw how bad any coronation talk turns out for the Liberals... and the NDP seems to be having issues with that idea of a "coronation" in reference to Topp (who i wont vote for). I give Rae some props for defending his 90s government.

[lilTommy]

Is Rae's Ontario government a bit like how the North of England see the Conservatives since Thatcher?

No, that would be how people tend to view the Harris government.

Depends what side of the coin your on i suppose... Rae is despised by the right for obvious reasons, even if his government walked on water he would still be hated by neo-cons.
Rae is pitied by many in the NDP and moderates; the media and corporations were out to get him from the start, the perfect storm happened while in government (recession, NAFTA) many just believe the lies that Rae was the devil when he was just trying to get through it.
Rae is hated by some in the NDP (the Kromos NDPers)... mainly cause hes backed down, broke promises and went against unions, the base. 2011 was seen as the first real time the party had shed the Rae era stigma so the ONDP was/has been hurt by Rae even thought he long ago ran to the Liberals.
(thats how i see it here)

Rae is stuck with this, my gut says that the LPC will lose seats in Ontario if Rae runs, not many but some... Cause i think some segment of Ontario would have the same hate on him as those in North England have for Thatcher.

[lilTommy]

... it was common to run into Baird at Woody's and Agostino at Buddies back in the day... both are gay bars in TO

Anywho... what do folks think the decision to have "supporters" vote for the leader this time federally, just like they did in the Alberta Liberal race? (knowing the outcome of that one, do y'all think that was a good move by the Grits?)

[lilTommy]

Agreed, why vote NDP-Lite when you can vote NDP...

Frankly the Liberals need to focus on winning back those CR voters who bolted to the tories... particularly in those inner-suburb ridings in TO and the 905 area. I think the days of campaigning on the left, governing from the right is over... play what your good at; the middle ground.

We will see what happens in Alberta now that they have a RedTory leader... might not be the best since things don't look good for them there.

... image a Kennedy/Nash showdown in PHP where they are both Leaders? has that ever happened before?

[lilTommy]

Robertson? Nenshi? really... are they members? Robertson i'd see go with the NDP over the Liberals but thats absed on past and well that didn't work in the NDPs advantage with Dosanj. But Robertson best beware, as LSD is showing, Dippers can't handle being spurned

[lilTommy]

Calgary has always been much more progressive than people give it credit for.

As for Ford, his election was directly related to Miller. Miller was far too left-wing, or, at least, looked far too left-wing. He was terrible at "selling" his policies, and that's how Ford got elected.

I disagree, Miller wasn't that leftist especially while Mayor. He was a second term mayor who didn't run again; if he had, i'm sure he would have won again... thats something we can argue till the end of time but as someone who lives DT, he would have had the old city locked up mostly.
Miller was hurt badly by the strike that was obvious and i think that drove him to step aside. The pendulum just started to swing right, its natural after having a left-centre left administration that the rights arguments started to get more attention/traction. Ford was/is a loud mouth who ran on a slogan and an idea that people were diluted to believe was true... esp those who have no idea what taxes pay for etc. They were more motivated to vote.
Had Tory run, or if even Giambrone, Rossi and Thompson stayed in the race it might have been a different outcome. I always thought it was a mistake for Giambrone to 1)deny the affair/fling and 2) withdraw from the race.

Anyway... TO is a mixed bag, the Old City of toronto is progressive to moderate as you head north and the inner burbs is moderate to conservative depending where you are. I am thankful TO is weak mayor, one vote among many kinda town

[lilTommy]

Miller looked overly left-wing and incompetent who allowed city hall to fill up with gravy

Looked.

The fact that Ford can't seem to find any gravy proves that this was not the case, but voters thought it was.

... To some he did for sure, and you saw that when the votes were counted (outside the old city Ford won, but Smitherman took TO).
Exactly, there was and is very little gravy to be had... like i said, it was a perfect storm that helped Ford win.

Anywho.. on topic, that Star report also mentioned Mark Holland as a contender, where would he stand among the crowd? is it likely he would run. So far there have been no names from West of Ontario, have the Grits given up the West? it has to be said that the seats they won were in most cases won on the current MP (thinking Goodale, Lameroux, Fry) All three ridings would fall if they step down.

[lilTommy]

I wasn't advocating any of them running at all...  your points are right on
But any interest from the west at all, outside caucus ala Topp? (I don't see Robertson going Liberal, if anything he might see a 2015 NDP run in VanCentre (or whatever riding is roughly that one)

[lilTommy]

Rae lead an incompetent government.
Some people think Ontario NDP = Incompetent government.
It really had less to do with left/right on that

Mostly, i wont go as far as saying incompetent but they ran a pretty poor goverment. Well it was a perfect storm in 90, i will defend parts of that term but not all of it.

Many... if not most of the MPPs elected in 90 were not expected to win, when i lived in Peterborough i work on the executive with Jenny Carter, who was elected in 90 and ran mainly cause her Husband had a name in the community... and we cabn't forget that Mamoliti (toronto extremist right wing councillor) was an NDP MPP too... (still makes me cring).
The corporate business sector in the province was out to get them, at every opportunity, every right wing media outlet were all working against the NDP...
NAFTA was coming into effect which made the recession of the 90s even harder on the governement.
But worst of all, for those of us who bleed orange, they broke their promises and failed to bring in Public Auto insurance and force the social contract on workers.

Anywho... point is, I agree with Hatman, yes there will be those who vote Liberal now who might bolt for the Tories (more likely) if he run and wins the leadership. Then depending on who the NDP nominate they may lose their soft left wing to the NDP as well (Mulcair, maybe Nash as the ON girl)

[lilTommy]

How is it that Ontario is seeing a surge in support for the Liberals with Rae as leader?  Why does it seem that NDP supporters are becoming Liberal while Rae is hated by NDP supporters for his social contract?  That's what puzzles me.  Is it the lack of Jack Layton?

'Tis Blue Liberals returning home. For that the credit should go to Brison.

Agreed, many blue liberals bolted to the tories... i still think they are just parking back in their old spots till they see who the liberal leader is.
The NDP vote hasn't changed much in ON... as a ONDPer, Rae is disliked for a lot more than social contract but that was part of it

[lilTommy]

That sounds a lot like a wish list too... just like it was thought Doer or Miller would run in the NDP race.
Certain people are (i'd bet money) not going to run:
Robertson (is a NDPer!) Nenshi (too novice, just won last year or so), Copps, McKenna and Goodale (too old and too Chretien era). Ghiz just won again... but maybe if there is a big push

A couple i'm not even sure are Liberals but that dosen't stop anyone really right... Lang, any relation to Andrew Lang (TorontoDanforth candidate previously?) Coyne (not sure its in their best interest to run, they are both pretty comfy now and i don't see them wanting to spend at least 2 terms revamping the Liberals)

Some interesting candidates who are young and should probably be looked at as likely or maybe even courted: Holland, Reagan, Bains could be long-haulers for sure.

Stronach... really?, billionaress and tory-liberal-tory-liberal opportunist... probably not a good choice.

Hmm interesting, Provincial Liberals from PQ or ON might start looking around too... esp if they think they might be beaten in PQ by CAQ.

[lilTommy]

Rae gets a Conrad Black endorsement.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/11/conrad-black-a-few-of-my-favourite-things-in-canadian-politics/#more-67287

Gah, is that not some kiss of death right there?

[lilTommy]

Rae is released and will announce his candidacy in a couple of weeks.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/06/07/pol-liberal-leadership-bob-rae.html

As an outsider, this to me leaves a very bad taste... he promises not to run, then this new executive changes the rules, now hes going to run (even though he promised not to?) giving him a huge advantage since hes been interim leader for what a year now?... just because you can do something, doesn't mean you should.
This looks like another coronation attempt, and the media (should) pick this up... and so will the NDP & Tories.

There has to be better candidates out there?

[lilTommy]

WHOA! what? anyone know if this is true?... i thought Rae was actually going to do the wrong thing and run... but i'm stunned if this is true.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1210606--bob-rae-won-t-run-for-liberal-leadership-sources-say?bn=1

Is this a push to have Trudeau run? I think its sentimental, he's a TRUDEAU so they want his as leader. Hes also young, and rather good looking, and arrogantly-charming if that makes sense, but they don't mention him only "Marc Garneau, David McGuinty, Joyce Murray and Dominic LeBlanc"

[lilTommy]

Ugh. When there's a leadership election for the other party, I usually do try to consider who would make the best Prime Minister if the party was to come into power. I actually think Rae is a good guy and has some solid leadership qualities. I'm kind of disappointed.

He did take one for the team though--Bob Rae wouldn't have been a good fit for the 905.

Here's hoping he knows Trudeau will be a flop and is waiting to be the party's only hope sometime down the road.

... if thats the case, Rae you waited for two leaders to flop (and they did)... at this rate he might, MIGHT be leader... when hes 80.

Rae made far too many mistakes to be considered "electable as PM" even if i agree hes a fantastic speaker and has some good leadership qualities.

[lilTommy]

Martha Hall Findlay calls for the (long-overdue, IMO) termination of supply management. I could see her being the first entrant. The window is between the Olympics and that major Cabinet shuffle reportedly in the works.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/politicians-need-courage-to-dismantle-supply-management/article4359234/

I won't post the polls showing JT dominating the field and having a low-30s baseline in a hypothetical '15 matchup. They're at G&M or TS and even their authors admit that they're not terribly predictive.

Yup, courage alright to support and allow the import of inferior quality US mIlk (mmm i like mine with extra hormones please); and with little to no guarantee of lower prices, infact NO proof of it (look at Australia). ANYWHO, thats my personal take, i support some form of Supply managemnet... but it is a unique platform to run on... just don't expect tow in back any seats in Eastern ON or rural PQ

[lilTommy]

Eh, let's disagree and leave it there. For now let's wait till Sunday and QP, maybe Craig Oliver will have more scoops for us.

Agreed.. or wait, disagreed? But i will give her credit for coming forward with a strongly distinctive policy to run on... still reading all the "polls" being done have mini-Trudeau in the lead of prospectives

[lilTommy]

Here are some names thrown about by the star... a lot more then have been mentioned here:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1216283--a-long-long-list-of-liberals-are-dreaming-about-leadership-this-summer

Pumping-up Marc Garneau:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/marc-garneau-could-have-the-right-stuff-for-liberal-leader/article4367583/

Is Justin really the best?:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/is-justin-trudeau-really-the-liberals-best-option/article4365181/

[lilTommy]

Why is Trudeau so popular? Did he accomplish anything yet? And what are his political positions?

the Trudeau name is ICONIC, not only in the Liberal Party but in Canada, but especially among Liberals.
Hes also exceptionally media savy, and rather handsome and young... a trifecta if i ever heard one
But your point stands; i don't think hes accomplished much?, hes only in his second term and neither were in gov't. Can anyone chim in on possible private members bills or anything hes ever done?

Really hes the darling of the party... because of his name