Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[King of Kensington]

Who exactly does JT appeal to?   The Liberals need to win back the "blue Liberals" who defected big time post-Martin.  People like Manley and McKenna who would be more appealing have been out of politics for too long and are far too happy making millions in the private sector.  JT in contrast comes as very flaky and I imagine if he tries to say "I'm socially progressive but unlike the NDP I'm fiscally responsible" it will impress nobody.  Mulcair has essentially turned the NDP into a big-tent progressive party (and less of a traditional social democratic party) and is a major threat to the PET/Chretien wing; being the far bigger party also robs the Liberals of their old argument for strategic voting "we're big and they're small."

At least Deborah Coyne has presented serious proposals and seems like the kind of person who could appeal to the "too educated to vote Tory, too bourgeois to vote NDP" demographic (if only she had ever been elected to anything!)

The fact that this looks like a coronation for Justin does not look good for the LPC.

[King of Kensington]

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/09/27/with-justin-trudeau-as-their-leader-liberals-could-easily-win-federal-election-exclusive-poll/

According to this poll, the Liberal fantasy that the "Orange Wave" is a blip and Canadians will drop the NDP like a hot potato to vote for Justin is true and return to their "natural party of government" is true!

[King of Kensington]

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/09/28/kelly-mcparland-liberals-transform-themselves-into-the-lindsay-lohan-party/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[King of Kensington]

I don't think Martha Hall Findlay will be that formidable, given that she was defeated in Willowdale.  Garneau will be the main challenger.  The Astronaut vs. The Dilettante. 

[King of Kensington]

In a lot of ways Garneau strikes me as a Ken Dryden type.   Nobody would doubt they are very competent and accomplished people, but they are very awkward politicians.  

[King of Kensington]

Quite a bit.  I guess the proposed Westmount-NDG ("Wilder-Penfield!") would be more like the proposed St. Paul's though.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals won elections under Chretien/Martin by being perceived as sound economic managers among voters in the suburbs.  Garneau seems more likely to exude this sort of competence than Trudeau which is an advantage he would have facing the general electorate. 

[King of Kensington]

That may be so, but I don't want anyone to get the impression that Layton and Justin Trudeau are/were of equal intellectual calibre.

When Jack was 30 he was a faculty member at Ryerson University.  Justin had a very thin resume at 35, he was a substitute drama teacher with no real accomplishments whatsoever except having a famous father.   His father of course was one of Quebec's leading intellectuals long before that.

[King of Kensington]

Justin is such a bad actor:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp_O3liJpu8

[King of Kensington]

You can see one of the journalists try to hide her laughter at 1:10 and another says "Oh come on!" when JT is done. 

[King of Kensington]

Garneau strikes me as another Ken Dryden. 

It seems to me that MHF seems to be doing pretty well in the debates and may be squeezing out Garneau in terms of carrying the flag of "blue Liberalism."

[King of Kensington]

As much as I'm not a fan of JT, I have to say his candour and admission that he's extremely fortunate comes across well.   Still the name is a lot more valuable than the $1 million he inherited.  No way he would earn that much in speaking fees if he didn't have a famous name. 

[King of Kensington]

http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=866669&playlistId=1.1159734&binId=1.810401&playlistPageNum=1

Wow, if Justin can't handle MHF how is he going to take on Harper?