Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013

[DC Al Fine]

I never liked Trudeau... and does this kid have anything special or is he just Trudeau's son? He needs a damn haircut- looks like a drummer in a rock band

If his last name wasn't Trudeau, he wouldn't have been a serious contender to be the Liberal candidate in his riding much less their leader.

[DC Al Fine]

That may be so, but I don't want anyone to get the impression that Layton and Justin Trudeau are/were of equal intellectual calibre.

When Jack was 30 he was a faculty member at Ryerson University.  Justin had a very thin resume at 35, he was a substitute drama teacher with no real accomplishments whatsoever except having a famous father.   His father of course was one of Quebec's leading intellectuals long before that.

True, but the sort of people hatman is talking about don't really care about intellectual bona fides.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't know much about Canadian politics, but I was wondering whether something happened after the most recent elections, or things are just returning to "normal".
What I mean by this is that the NDP was for the first time the 2nd biggest party and the Greens also did very well.
But when I was looking at the most recent polls, Trudeau, if he became the leader would be able to win the federal elections, by getting more than half the voters who went with the NDP in 2011.
Are these people simply "returning home"?
Has the NDP lost some of its appeal due to its leader's death?
Has the NDP done a bad job in the House?
Also what about the Greens?  Why are they losing voters to Trudeau?
Why is Trudeau so popular?  Is it his good looks, his father or something I am not aware of?

Any answers would be greatly appreciated!

The Greens did mediocre in the last election. They won their first seat, but their vote share decreased substantially.

To explain the NDP/Liberal phenomenon, there is a large portion of the electorate who are anti-Harper voters who don't have any party loyalty. These people would be safe Democrats in America, but since we have multiple left leaning parties they have to choose one. They will just vote for whichever left leaning party looks like a winner. The combination of the NDP losing their leader and a charismatic Liberal leader in-waiting is causing some of those generic lefties to shift NDP.

Our Greens are much more right wing than normal Greens (I could see myself voting for them if the Conservatives bugged me enough). While most Greens serve as a hard left party, our Greens are slightly left of centre, and around the same spot as the Liberals and let's their supporters easily shift between the two.

Trudeau is popular because he's pretty, charismatic, and his last name is Trudeau. This may not last though. Much as I hated his Dad, I had a grudging respect for him. Justin strikes me as an airhead.

[DC Al Fine]

Garneau is in, the field is complete.

No MP's with an axe to grind willing to run?

[DC Al Fine]

Who were you thinking of?

David Orchard! Yeah I know he's not an MP, but I figured some fringe guy has to join the race right?

[DC Al Fine]

The debates should be interesting... if the stage isn't too crowded with people other than Coyne and the 4 MPs.

I think we'll be ok. It's not like all of them could raise the 75k entrance fee.

I'm guessing the campaigns have taken note of this and are adjusting accordingly, but the method of selecting a winner for this is pretty wacky. It's basically the U.S. electoral college if all 50 states had an equal number of votes. Any candidate who can rack up victories in rural/exurban ridings and not get slaughtered in suburban/urban ones has a pretty good chance of victory. A vote coming from rural Alberta, or any riding with very few LPC supporters, is worth significantly more than a vote from Toronto or Montreal.

That's the Conservative's system IIRC.

[DC Al Fine]

Here are the rules if anyone else wants to read them: http://www.liberal.ca/leadership-2013/faq/

It also means that any sort of national polling is pretty worthless unless one candidate has a massive lead in April.

Mea culpa

[DC Al Fine]

Justin is such a bad actor:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp_O3liJpu8

Oh my God. Nearly unbelievable. The too strong emotion, the third person... wow.

Also, what the hell is up with the staging? Could they not find a podium and also put a little distance between him and the reporters? Bizarre optics.

Oh God, kill me.

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau said this morning that the gun registry, so far as he's concerned, is dead.

Wow, that's the first non aggravating quip I've ever heard from him... unless he tossed back his hair, then it's still aggravating.

[DC Al Fine]

Good, we should be seeing some dropouts soon.

[DC Al Fine]

Regan formally endorses Justin.

http://www.ngnews.ca/News/Local/2013-01-11/article-3154955/Regan-endorses-Trudeaus-leadership-bid/1

Fun story: On election night in 2011, Geoff Regan called our campaign headquarters to try and concede defeat.

[DC Al Fine]

Brison took his time. Any idea what he was playing at?

Brison's on the right of the party. I imagine he was waiting until Trudeau's election appeared inevitable.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm watching the speech from yesterday, and I can't quite pick up on the intonation in French, so i'm not sure if it's his natural way, but why does Justin sound so patronising (even for a politician) when he speaks English?

Because his last name is Trudeau