Inverclyde by-election

[You kip if you want to...]

Caused by the death of David Cairns, former Minister of State at the Scotland Office, of acute pancreatitis on May 9th.

Brief Profile

Created in the 2005 boundary review, Inverclyde was created from the old Greenock & Inverclyde seat and parts of the old West Renfrewshire seat. A safe Labour seat, Inverclyde hasn't elected any other party since 1983, when the Conservatives won Renfrew West & Inverclyde. Labour won it back in 1987, holding it in 1992 against none other than Annabel Goldie. That seat was abolished in 1997.

Cairns extended his majority in 2010 with a 3.6% swing from the SNP to Labour, clearly holding off the UK-wide swing and improving on the Scotland-wide swing of 0.1% from the SNP to Labour - many declaring this a semi-favourite son effect for Gordon Brown.

In the Scottish Parliamentary election in May, on slightly different boundaries, Duncan McNeil was returned for a fourth term, his majority down from 13.1% in 2007 to 1.8% now - a 6.7% swing to the SNP.

Past Results

2010: Labour 56.0, SNP 17.5, Liberal Democrat 13.3, Conservative 12.0, UKIP 1.2
2005: Labour 50.7, SNP 19.6, Liberal Democrat 17.0, Conservative 10.2, SSP 2.5

The SNP would need a 19.2% swing towards them to gain this seat. The SNP have only achieved such swings in Glasgow East in 2008 which saw a 22.5% swing and Glasgow Govan in 1988 which saw a 33.1% swing.

[afleitch]

Labour hold. Not as comfortable as they would like on the back of the SNP's recent win. Labour will no doubt say it shows the SNP aren't as popular etc etc, when the reality is a Labour win here (and they did win Greenock at Holyrood too) is simply a continuation of the different voting patterns at Holyrood and Westminster.

Parties other than Labour/SNP unlikely to get more than 10% in total.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour hold. Not as comfortable as they would like on the back of the SNP's recent win. Labour will no doubt say it shows the SNP aren't as popular etc etc, when the reality is a Labour win here (and they did win Greenock at Holyrood too) is simply a continuation of the different voting patterns at Holyrood and Westminster.

Parties other than Labour/SNP unlikely to get more than 10% in total.

The by-elections in this parliament have been so predictable!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That the Holyrood equivalent of this constituency was held last month tells you something. Still, past experience reminds us to be... careful... when Scottish by-elections are concerned (even when we're in opposition). Cairns was a good MP and will have built up some kind of person vote over the past decade, while the SNP will surely benefit from the afterglow of the Salmondslide. I would expect a fairly comfortable hold, though with a swing against, absent any serious errors or game-changing events. Of course what cost Labour Govan in 1988 (amusingly enough the Holyrood constituency that covers most of that particular incarnation of Govan was not won by the SNP last month) was mostly suicidal candidate selection.

It's also worth noting that Greenock used to be that rarest of things; a Scottish industrial town with a substantial Liberal vote. That was ended by (it seems) their incompetent handling of the local council during 2003-2007, but there's still the history there. So, keep half an eye on Team Yellow. But not for the reasons that used to be a good idea in by-elections.

[minionofmidas]

Parties other than Labour/SNP unlikely to get more than 10% in total.

Individually, you mean?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Profiles of those that seek the Labour nod: http://www.labourlist.org/party-unveils-inverclyde-shortlist

[You kip if you want to...]

The SNP has selected Anne McLaughlin, a former MSP for the Glasgow region, having taken the seat in 2009 after being one of the 'back-up' list candidates. She contested Rutherglen in 2001, Springburn in 2007 and she was John Mason's campaign co-ordinator in Glasgow East in 2008. Her most notable act as an MSP was probably controversially taking photos inside the Scottish Parliament building, so... she's done nothing notable really.

Labour's selected Iain McKenzie, a former employee of IBM. He's been a local councillor since 2003 and the leader of Inverclyde council since February this year.

[joevsimp]

Labour's selected Iain McKenzie, a former employee of IBM. He's been a local councillor since 2003 and the leader of Inverclyde council since February this year.

should be a fairly safe win then, I really can't see see the SNP gaining this after failing to gain the hollyrood seat that this effectively replaced at westminster, but you can't underestimate Labour's incompetence all the time

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Date set for the 30th of June.

I'm glad that Labour didn't pick the ex MSP.

[You kip if you want to...]

Sophie Bridger, president of the Scottish Liberal Youth has been selected for the Liberal Democrats.

Cllr David Wilson is going for the Tories.

Alex Salmond launched the SNP campaign on Tuesday. David Cameron's apparently not campaigning, clearly not wanting to drive voters to Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps, but then traditionally Prime Ministers do not campaign in by-elections; interesting that Brown's one-off in Glenrothes (which contained a large town that used to be in his constituency) has changed expectations to that degree.

[You kip if you want to...]

Mitch Sorbie is standing for UKIP and one the Lab and Con candidates actually live in the constituency.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Up until the past week this by-election has had remarkably little coverage, and now that it's actually getting some most of it is dreadful; just the usual collection of Scottish by-election clichés ('turnout is key', 'you can't rule out an SNP upset', etc) with the usual useless collection of uninteresting anecdotes and with very little useful information. Of course given the state of journalism these days that's hardly surprising, but it's a little on the irritating side.

[minionofmidas]

Up until the past week this by-election has had remarkably little coverage, and now that it's actually getting some most of it is dreadful; just the usual collection of Scottish by-election clichés ('turnout is key', 'you can't rule out an SNP upset', etc)

'are they naked under those kilts', 'how do you keep the natives sober long enough to go down to the voting booth'.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is today. Media coverage has not improved, needless to say. Both Labour and the SNP seem to have been briefing that it's tight, but then they always do that unless it's likely to be an absolute rout (and have their own self-interest-based reasons to do so), so that doesn't necessarily mean anything, though who knows.

Oh well. Not long to go now.

[You kip if you want to...]

I suppose the strike will drive turn out up a tad, right?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls have closed.

[You kip if you want to...]

Tweeters throwing out a Labour majority of 2-4k.

Yawn. I hope the next one's in a Lib-Con marginal though.

[You kip if you want to...]

Liberals possibly behind UKIP... in Scotland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tweeters throwing out a Labour majority of 2-4k.

I just hope it isn't caused by the death of someone I like in circumstances that have additional... er... personal resonances. I was genuinely upset when I heard about Cairns.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC don't seem to have any coverage on the interwebs this time (maybe that'll change later in the night?) but STV do.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Liberals possibly behind UKIP... in Scotland.

More to the point... in Greenock.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, now... the BBC do: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13959117

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Jo Swinson says ongoing LibDem catastrophe in Scotland because of 'communication problems'.

[You kip if you want to...]

Jo Swinson says ongoing LibDem catastrophe in Scotland because of 'communication problems'.

Can't wait for Dunbartonshire to turn red...