NY-09, Special Election Thread

[nclib]

This is certainly disappointing, but I wouldn't read too much into it. NY-9 is a unique district.

What were the final results by borough?

[NY Jew]

I think a lot of it was about Obama's stand on Israel and same sex marriage, but not all of it.  Queens was not an Orthodox stronghold.  Some of it is the economy.

There is another problem.  Jews have traditionally supported Democratic candidates and supported Obama in the last election.  All D presidential nominees since 1928 have gotten at least a plurality of the Jewish vote.  Except for Carter in 1980, all got more than 60%.  http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/jewvote.html

This election is an indication that Obama might be below the 60% range, possibly below the 50% mark.  That should trouble any Obama supporter, especially if you look at the states with a fairly large Jewish population.

And Lief, thank you for helping drive Jewish voters away from Obama.

I haven't really read this thread (because this) but has this disgusting picture been posted yet?



So glad that we have another congressman that is as loyal to an anti-democratic apartheid state as he is to the country he will swear to protect.

Central Queens (Kew Garden Hill, Kew Gardens, Forrest Hills) has thousands of Orthodox votes.

[NY Jew]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9T7UfohbEc

[Torie]

Bob Turner is not Jewish.

That makes his pandering even more disgusting.

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong? And maybe he really agrees with their point of view. This particular WASP is also very pro Israel, and I make no apologies for it - none. But yes, I also favor gay marriage.

And I admire the Orthodox Jews for voting for a goy over one of their own tribe, if that is what he is. It shows they are not parochial in that particular way. Good for them!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

By the way looking at the Nevada map, CD 2 definitely does include a decent portion of North Las Vegas and its pretty safe to say that most of the 6,000 votes came from part of Clark county since the southern part is very rural. I mean there is like one road throughout that part and a couple very tiny towns.

That was North Las Vegas they just got creamed in.

Ok, mapped things out on DRA. The district contains about 86,000 residents in Clark County. Of them only 27,000 live in North Las Vegas, excluding Nellis AFB (which doesn't have that many people anyways). What we seemed to miss was the city of Mesquite. That adds another 25,000 odd residents. And it's on the Utah border. Also those precincts in the south do have a lot of people, and those are relatively wealthy areas and they vote Republican. About 40,000 odd people there. The North Las Vegas portion is about 50% Hispanic, wheareas the district overall within Clark County is only 27% Hispanic. In a special election I really wonder how many people showed up. The rich areas to the south I am sure showed up, and Mesquite seems like it would be teabagger central. Unless we have precinct results, we can't tell whether there was a catastrophic swing in North Las Vegas or not. And considering how few people actually voted in Clark, and the fact that no one advertised there, it would be safer to look at the populated areas of northern Nevada. Carson City results are very interesting to me.

Next to nobody voted in North Las Vegas.  That is the reasonable inference from the really low turnout in Clark. It was only 18%. In Washoe it was 32%  

In Carson City it was actually 50%.

Which is why, regardless of the exact partisanship of this part of Clark, the idea that this part of the district should get a mention as "the place to keep your eye on", without even a mention of Washoe or Carson City, is incredibly misleading on the part of Politico.

[NY Jew]

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/poll-same-sex-marriage-played-role-ny-city-congressional-upset

[nclib]

from link:

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Not surprising, and should show that the Dems aren't in trouble with Jews in general.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Surveys like that tend not to be worth the paper they're printed on, though that particular pattern is obviously true. To repeat, the cause for concern isn't anything specific to Jewish voters in the district.

[rbt48]

Has anyone seen the results for the last 40 precincts?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

I can't believe it takes over 24 hours to check all the voting machines in New York City!  It must be that the AP page just gives up and ceases to update.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow I never knew Lief had that much political influence! There is no question that thousands of Jews will note vote for Obama because of the postings of a Democratic college student on an internet message board. Amazing how much influence the guy has now.

[Torie]

Surveys like that tend not to be worth the paper they're printed on, though that particular pattern is obviously true. To repeat, the cause for concern isn't anything specific to Jewish voters in the district.

Yup. Obama really needs to worry about lower middle class and working class white Catholics more. He's being killed there at the moment. And there are a lot more of them of course across the fruited plain. In the handful of precincts in this CD in that category, Welprin was probably slaughtered. It will be interesting to see the precinct by precinct results, since due to my mapping I think I now know the CD quite well.

[Sam Spade]

I wouldn't read too much into any poll, but a wise sage would probably look at this election and say that movement among lower-income Catholics was probably how Turner won it.

[Sam Spade]

Surveys like that tend not to be worth the paper they're printed on, though that particular pattern is obviously true. To repeat, the cause for concern isn't anything specific to Jewish voters in the district.

Yup. Obama really needs to worry about lower middle class and working class white Catholics more. He's being killed there at the moment. And there are a lot more of them of course across the fruited plain. In the handful of precincts in this CD in that category, Welprin was probably slaughtered. It will be interesting to see the precinct by precinct results, since due to my mapping I think I now know the CD quite well.

Great minds think alike?

[Lief 🗽]

Wow I never knew Lief had that much political influence! There is no question that thousands of Jews will note vote for Obama because of the postings of a Democratic college student on an internet message board. Amazing how much influence the guy has now.

I'm pretty flattered that J.J. thinks so highly of my political influence.

[Sam Spade]

Story of the day relayed to me by someone else:

Person in cab with Russian cab driver, between 25-30, from Moscow.  Lived in US most of his life.  Conversation turns to NY-9 congressional race and cab driver says, "I'm so happy about the victory.  I worked for his campaign."

Person asks, "was it about Israel and Obama?"  Cab driver goes, "No, I think Obama definitely supports Israel and their interests.  I couldn't support Weprin because was with the f****ts."

[Boris]

Story of the day relayed to me by someone else:

Person in cab with Russian cab driver, between 25-30, from Moscow.  Lived in US most of his life.  Conversation turns to NY-9 congressional race and cab driver says, "I'm so happy about the victory.  I worked for his campaign."

Person asks, "was it about Israel and Obama?"  Cab driver goes, "No, I think Obamal fu supports Israel and their interests.  I couldn't support Weprin because was with the f****ts."

lol

But seriously, Israeli MKs really ought to reciprocate and give their victory speeches (if they have those? they don't have FPTP, do they?) against the backdrop of American flags.

[Beet]

isn't it obvious? everyone that picked up was for Turner

Not everyone. But about half. Half of registered Democrats.

Did these people give you specifics reasons for their defections?

[Meeker]

isn't it obvious? everyone that picked up was for Turner

Not everyone. But about half. Half of registered Democrats.

Did these people give you specifics reasons for their defections?

I didn't ask.

[NY Jew]

http://biggovernment.com/jdunetz/2011/09/14/what-the-ny-9-contest-teaches-us-and-doesnt-about-the-jewish-vote/

[Keystone Phil]

Story of the day relayed to me by someone else:

Person in cab with Russian cab driver, between 25-30, from Moscow.  Lived in US most of his life.  Conversation turns to NY-9 congressional race and cab driver says, "I'm so happy about the victory.  I worked for his campaign."

Person asks, "was it about Israel and Obama?"  Cab driver goes, "No, I think Obama definitely supports Israel and their interests.  I couldn't support Weprin because was with the f****ts."

I had no idea you were from Moscow!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bob Turner is not Jewish.

That makes his pandering even more disgusting.

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong

Excuse me, I thought his constituents were Americans.

[J. J.]

Wow I never knew Lief had that much political influence! There is no question that thousands of Jews will note vote for Obama because of the postings of a Democratic college student on an internet message board. Amazing how much influence the guy has now.

Every bit helps.

[patrick1]

Bob Turner is not Jewish.

That makes his pandering even more disgusting.

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong

Excuse me, I thought his constituents were Americans.

Oh my stars, getting a case of the vapors?  Had their been a Greek flag in Astoria, an Irish in Rockaway Beach or an Italian one in Howard Beach no one would say anything.  

Many constituent hold dual citizenship of a bunch of different nations.  It is just that Star of David that makes some people see red.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bob Turner is not Jewish.

That makes his pandering even more disgusting.

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong

Excuse me, I thought his constituents were Americans.

Oh my stars, getting a case of the vapors?  Had their been a Greek flag in Astoria, an Irish in Rockaway Beach or an Italian one in Howard Beach no one would say anything.  

Many constituent hold dual citizenship of a bunch of different nations.  It is just that Star of David that makes some people see red.

I addressed your point a page or two before.

I guess if Mike Michaud gave a victory speech having a French flag next to him or Raul Grijalva with a Mexican one, Republicans would be totally OK with that.

[patrick1]

Bob Turner is not Jewish.

That makes his pandering even more disgusting.

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong

Excuse me, I thought his constituents were Americans.

Oh my stars, getting a case of the vapors?  Had their been a Greek flag in Astoria, an Irish in Rockaway Beach or an Italian one in Howard Beach no one would say anything.  

Many constituent hold dual citizenship of a bunch of different nations.  It is just that Star of David that makes some people see red.

I addressed your point a page or two before.

I guess if Mike Michaud gave a victory speech having a French flag next to him or Raul Grijalva with a Mexican one, Republicans would be totally OK with that.

Um, yeah. The people who don't like France or Mexicans would piss and moan. I doubt they would get upset at Cuban emigre Republicans waving the old flag around.  Partisan politics tends  to turn people into hypocritical jackoffs.

OMG, Enemy agent!