NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Torie]

Better still would be to lower the corporate tax rate in the US, so that for most overseas profits, there is no incentive not to repatriate because the tax rates are comparable across the major industrial nations. End of story.

[Torie]

I guess Weprin is not the first fat white man who can't dance, but I mean - really now.  Viewer discretion advised.

[NY Jew]

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/in-race-for-weiners-seat-75000-from-foes-of-same-sex-marriage/

anyone still think that I'm completely wrong about Weprin loosing this because of marriage redefinition.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Goddamnit, am I really going to have to make a donation to a Democrat here?

[krazen1211]

PPP:
From first night polling, Turner up big. 

[DrScholl]

That's not what the tweet said, just for honesty reasons, I'll post it.  It did not mention any numbers or even who was up

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/111985726626873344

My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.

That is the actually tweet, not what was posted above.

[Sam Spade]

What is it with NY machine candidates in recent special elections?

Anyway, the machine is worth more here than in most other places, but this is also one of those types of areas where if the voters are really against you, the machine won't matter much.  Follow?

[Torie]

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/in-race-for-weiners-seat-75000-from-foes-of-same-sex-marriage/

anyone still think that I'm completely wrong about Weprin loosing this because of marriage redefinition.

losing

[Torie]

What is it with NY machine candidates in recent special elections?

Anyway, the machine is worth more here than in most other places, but this is also one of those types of areas where if the voters are really against you, the machine won't matter much.  Follow?

Without hearing or watching Waprin, I just have this instinct that he is a nebbish. If so, and he can't hide it well enough, he's done.

[Torie]

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/in-race-for-weiners-seat-75000-from-foes-of-same-sex-marriage/

anyone still think that I'm completely wrong about Weprin loosing this because of marriage redefinition.

I suspect it just counts at the margins. It's a protest vote. These folks feel as ignored as hell. They feel like losers and don't like it. Being a loser in the Big Apple is hell.

[Eraserhead]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/09/08/democrats_in_trouble_in_ny-9.html

If the Dems actually lose this seat, that will really be something. I remain skeptical for now.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

That's not what the tweet said, just for honesty reasons, I'll post it.  It did not mention any numbers or even who was up

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/111985726626873344

My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.

That is the actually tweet, not what was posted above.

A close race would be "trouble." They say "BIG trouble," which indicates to me that the Republican is up, and by the emphasis, possibly beyond the margin of error.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/09/08/democrats_in_trouble_in_ny-9.html

If the Dems actually lose this seat, that will really be something. I remain skeptical for now.

Well, Scott Brown won a special in Massachusetts, which is D+12. This seat is only D+5.

It's not like it'd be an earthquake sign of doom for Democrats. I'd take it as a one-off, like the other special elections in New York where the GOPers were the ones falling off a cliff.

[NY Jew]

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there is no way that the Orthodox jewish population (most likely the biggest Orthodox population in any CD in the country) would even consider voting for Turner if Weprin had a good record on all homosexual related issues (Weprin would have gotten around 90% of their vote) (like I said this guy most likely funded more Jewish (and Orthodox) organizations then any other politician in the country on any level of government) (and the more religious jewish Weprin supporters who find out that all the rabbis are going strongly against Weprin (Rabbis have never gotten involved in any election as much as this one) are now turning away from him)


also bronx democrat state senator Ruben Diaz (Puerto Rican) (also for marriage redefinition) also crossed party lines to endorse Turner (there are about 40,000 registered Hispanic voters in this district)

though you might be right on the Irish/Italian catholic vote in this district because they for the most part would have voted for Turner anyway.

[NY Jew]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

the reason for it is the sign of doom for Democrats at least in the north east. (at least if the Republicans even have a half a brain to capitalize on it, which most likely means your right and this defeat will not have a big after effect)

the NY Republican establishment is the dumbest thing in existence (historically too)

[Landslide Lyndon]

the NY Republican establishment is the dumbest thing in existence (historically too)

I didn't know that you're part of the Republican establishment.

[NY Jew]

the NY Republican establishment is the dumbest thing in existence (historically too)

I didn't know that you're part of the Republican establishment.

sorry for insulting you (I didn't realize that you would be so upset that I forgot about you)
so here's the correction
the NY Republican establishment is the dumbest thing in existence outside of Greece (historically too)

the fact is that this CD is going to a Republican due to marriage redefinition and whether or not you think that makes us bigots (it's OK I think your a bigot) doesn't change the fact that politically the only reason this district is in play is because of weprin's homosexual positions. Bigots or not those are the facts and nothing you said have disproved those facts.

NYC is still for the most part a ethnic city like no other and no ethnicity group (that didn't completely assimilate in to the WASP (which today seemed to change it's protestantism for liberalism) north eastern culture) is in a favor of this trash.

[Brittain33]

Can we rule out that NY Jew isn't a new edition of Coburn Fan? Just asking.

[NY Jew]

Can we rule out that NY Jew isn't a new edition of Coburn Fan? Just asking.

?
I do like Tom Coburn if that's what you meant

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some statistics for the district (2005-2009 ACS)...

White: 68.6%
Black: 4.7%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 17.5% (of which 50.7% are Chinese and 24.7% Indian)
Median Age: 40.2
Over 65: 15.9%
Percentage with BA/etc or higher: 36.4%
Born Abroad: 40.2% (of which 64.6% are citizens)
Anglophone: 48.2%
Italian: 12.6%
Irish: 8.1%
Russian: 7.8%
German: 5.1%
Polish: 4.8%
Median HH Income: $57,024
Economically Inactive: 39.4%
Managerial/Professional occupations: 38.6%
Production/Construction/Service/Etc occupations: 33.9%
Public Sector Workers: 16.6%
Employed in Education/Health/Etc: 25.4%
Employed in Finance/Etc: 11.5%
Employed in Manufacturing: 5.1%
Households earning less than $35,000: 32.1%
Households earning more than $100,000: 24.6%
Percentage Renting: 48.7%

[minionofmidas]

What is it with NY machine candidates in recent special elections?

Anyway, the machine is worth more here than in most other places, but this is also one of those types of areas where if the voters are really against you, the machine won't matter much.  Follow?

...because the machine are voters too. And they can turn out their folks to vote against you instead of for you, if the "normal" voters share their grievance.

[krazen1211]

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/09/poll-republican-2.php

Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week's special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.

Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.

[minionofmidas]

Can we rule out that NY Jew isn't a new edition of Coburn Fan? Just asking.

?
I do like Tom Coburn if that's what you meant

Nah, he meant some past poster.

[NY Jew]

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf
many Jews who say Israel is the main reason for there vote, are really saying marriage redefinition but it wasn't a listed choice (and other doesn't accomplish anything, but voting for your second reason does) (look at 90% of the Orthodox Jews who are voting for Turner based on Israel also say in the same statement the marriage but they are to afraid to mention it straight up)
In addition the 6% of jews who say other I can almost guarantee that there biggest issue was marriage redefinition.

[NY Jew]

Can we rule out that NY Jew isn't a new edition of Coburn Fan? Just asking.

?
I do like Tom Coburn if that's what you meant

Nah, he meant some past poster.

I assumed that but I couldn't find a poster with that name. (I was curious what this person did that I'm getting compared to)