NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Lunar]

Welp, the Democrats really screwed this one up, I guess it was inevitable that they'd be the ones to royally mess up a special election in New York for once.

This isn't over yet.  Weprin and the DCCC's commercials are in heavy rotation in the NYC TV market.  I have yet to see a Turner ad.  If Weprin scares enough seniors with his Turner wants to cut your social security schtick, he might pull it out.  And there's the little issue of the Democrats having a good political machine, unlike the Republicans.

Turner doesn't have the cash for those ads.. but the DCCC's ads would have been best to define Turner early on, instead of at the last second

[redcommander]

Social security probably won't fool voters. Weprin is in deep crap for his position on gay marriage with the district's Orthodox Jewish voters. I'd like to see PPP's poll on this, since they were pretty accurate predicting Hahn would win by the margin she did. Being 6 points down the weekend before an election is a pretty steep climb for Weprin to pull off a win.

[Lunar]

Social security probably won't fool voters. Wepren is in deep crap for his position on gay marriage with the district's Orthodox Jewish voters. I'd like to see PPP's poll on this, since they were pretty accurate predicting Hahn would win by the margin she did. Being 6 points down the weekend before an election is a pretty steep climb for Wepren to pull off a win.

the # of the district's Orthodox voters who voted for Anthony Weiner but are voting against David Weprin are probably overestimated. Weiner almost lost the heavily Russian & Orthodox Brooklyn part of NY-9 -- I think by less than 1% -- despite winning by 20% overall.  Hell, Weiner lost his old Brooklyn City Council district.

As for PPP, their polling of Orthodox voters is obviously limited on Friday and Saturday evenings, but from their first day...



gay marriage is certainly getting Weprin in trouble, but he'd also be in trouble with his base if he voted against it

[Filuwaúrdjan]

About the Orthodox thing, I think it's mostly that people just know that Weiner's district was in south Brooklyn and Queens and jump to conclusions without checking anything.

[Napoleon]

Eliminate Hayworth and Ackerman for the best mutual results.

[redcommander]

Can redistricting please get rid of Charlie Rangel already? I don't think it's fair necessarily for Hochul, and whoever wins the 9th district to get eliminated seeing that there are corrupt fossils in the NY delegation that should be thrown out instead.

[Napoleon]

Can redistricting please get rid of Charlie Rangel already? I don't think it's fair necessarily for Hochul, and whoever wins the 9th district to get eliminated seeing that there are corrupt fossils in the NY delegation that should be thrown out instead.

VRA so not really.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf
many Jews who say Israel is the main reason for there vote, are really saying marriage redefinition but it wasn't a listed choice (and other doesn't accomplish anything, but voting for your second reason does) (look at 90% of the Orthodox Jews who are voting for Turner based on Israel also say in the same statement the marriage but they are to afraid to mention it straight up)
In addition the 6% of jews who say other I can almost guarantee that there biggest issue was marriage redefinition.

I am very concerned for you and the level at which you seem to obsess over gays getting married. Perhaps you could use a vacation?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Welp, the Democrats really screwed this one up, I guess it was inevitable that they'd be the ones to royally mess up a special election in New York for once.

This isn't over yet.  Weprin and the DCCC's commercials are in heavy rotation in the NYC TV market.  I have yet to see a Turner ad.  If Weprin scares enough seniors with his Turner wants to cut your social security schtick, he might pull it out.  And there's the little issue of the Democrats having a good political machine, unlike the Republicans.

Turner doesn't have the cash for those ads.. but the DCCC's ads would have been best to define Turner early on, instead of at the last second

Same problem Democrats had with Scott Brown. They didn't do anything to define him until it was way too late to do so.

[Talleyrand]

Can redistricting please get rid of Charlie Rangel already? I don't think it's fair necessarily for Hochul, and whoever wins the 9th district to get eliminated seeing that there are corrupt fossils in the NY delegation that should be thrown out instead.

VRA so not really.

Um, if they considered eliminating Yvette Clarke's seat, why can't they eliminate Rangel's? Geographic reasons?

[Torie]

Can redistricting please get rid of Charlie Rangel already? I don't think it's fair necessarily for Hochul, and whoever wins the 9th district to get eliminated seeing that there are corrupt fossils in the NY delegation that should be thrown out instead.

VRA so not really.

Um, if they considered eliminating Yvette Clarke's seat, why can't they eliminate Rangel's? Geographic reasons?

No.  Geography defines Rangel's CD. It can't go anywhere, because it is boxed in by whites and Hispanics and rivers and Central Park. It's only about 30% black anyway. 

[redcommander]

The legislature could just expand Serrano's district into Harlem and eliminate Rangel that way.

[Joe Republic]

The legislature could just expand Serrano's district into Harlem and eliminate Rangel that way.

Yeah, putting blacks and Hispanics together will totally comply with the VRA, and not piss anybody off at all.

[Sbane]

The legislature could just expand Serrano's district into Harlem and eliminate Rangel that way.

Yeah, putting blacks and Hispanics together will totally comply with the VRA, and not piss anybody off at all.

There aren't enough blacks there for there to be a black district.

They should make it a Hispanic vs Black in the primary district. It makes the most sense. I don't see why you would add it in with the wealthy white areas of Manhattan.

[DrScholl]

I believe Rangel's district has to at least give somewhat of an opportunity for black voters to elect a candidate of their choice. That was part of what happened in California redistricting, districts with high numbers of black voters were drawn, not 50%, but still enough for those voters to have a choice.

[Sbane]

I believe Rangel's district has to at least give somewhat of an opportunity for black voters to elect a candidate of their choice. That was part of what happened in California redistricting, districts with high numbers of black voters were drawn, not 50%, but still enough for those voters to have a choice.

I just drew a 36% VAP Black and 46% VAP Hispanic district. I excluded Washington Heights from the district and added in mixed areas of Bronx. I would think considering citizenship (might be less of a factor here than in LA) and turnout, it would be a fair fight in the primary.

[bgwah]

NY has sure had a lot of special elections lately.

[Joe Republic]

NY has sure had a lot of special elections lately.

Their congressmen seem to have a habit of either getting themselves appointed to better jobs, or taking naked pictures of themselves and putting them on the internet.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf
many Jews who say Israel is the main reason for there vote, are really saying marriage redefinition but it wasn't a listed choice (and other doesn't accomplish anything, but voting for your second reason does) (look at 90% of the Orthodox Jews who are voting for Turner based on Israel also say in the same statement the marriage but they are to afraid to mention it straight up)
In addition the 6% of jews who say other I can almost guarantee that there biggest issue was marriage redefinition.

I am very concerned for you and the level at which you seem to obsess over gays getting married. Perhaps you could use a vacation?

He is gay.

[minionofmidas]

the districts in NY look really weird is not just because of the voting rights act but because of the fact that they gerrymandered the jewish areas in southern Brooklyn to an extent that surpasses the deep south during Jimmy Crow.  Right now the Contiguous Orthodox Jewish areas in Brooklyn (I'm defining this as EDs that are over 50% Orthodox) have 6 congressional districts (8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th (though I admit this is only a very small portion in this ED), 13th) and the Jewish neighborhood of Flatbush now has 5 Congressional districts (I looked around the country and I couldn't find any other neighborhood that even has 3 Congressional districts)

The 12th? Seriously?
Otherwise, of course, yeah they're carved up something ridic. The Dem-voting White areas in Brooklyn are no better, of course.

Redistricting can actually get rid of Charlie Rangel, btw - not sure they'll do it, but the logical thing for this district to do is cross the Harlem River and become even more of a Hispanic district with Black influence than it is already (what would be excised would be the White parts).

[minionofmidas]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

incorrect, I think -- this district was never thought to be on the chopping block before Weiner had his tweetscandal

That's only because Weiner was considered too important to be eliminated. The whole point of the debate back then was pretty much how to avoid having to eliminate him.

[redcommander]

I think we should also take into consideration that a sizable portion of people in Serrano and Rangel's districts who mark down Hispanic are also African American. Many Dominican immigrants are racially Black, but still ethnically Hispanic.

[redcommander]

NY has sure had a lot of special elections lately.

Their congressmen seem to have a habit of either getting themselves appointed to better jobs, or taking naked pictures of themselves and putting them on the internet.

I wonder which Congressman will be next.

[Guderian]

NY has sure had a lot of special elections lately.

Their congressmen seem to have a habit of either getting themselves appointed to better jobs, or taking naked pictures of themselves and putting them on the internet.

And it has to be Kirsten Gillibrand who was appointed to better job and Anthony Weiner who took naked pictures and not the other way around.

[DrScholl]

I think we should also take into consideration that a sizable portion of people in Serrano and Rangel's districts who mark down Hispanic are also African American. Many Dominican immigrants are racially Black, but still ethnically Hispanic.

I was just about to mention that, it is a really valid point.