NY-09, Special Election Thread

[BigSkyBob]

Worst danger for Dems is if Crowley goes with a weak Dem nominee to bolster himself in redistricting

Prescient.

[BigSkyBob]

I think the frontrunner for this is Assemblyman Rory Lancman and former Councilwoman Melinda Katz as the runner up.

Yes, those two would be in my top three, I'd toss in David Weprin too

Another prescient call. Very good.

[NY Jew]

Couple of points:

1. The district is not entirely Jewish (it isn't even majority Jewish; working off the ACS data I posted way up thread, only 68.6% of the district is white and Italian and Irish ancestries came out at 20.7%. Of course there can be double counting in the latter, but my point isn't hard to grasp, I hope), not all Jews in the district are Orthodox, and not all Orthodox Jews in the district are the sort that wear those nifty black hats and vote with such remarkable discipline when an election is deemed to matter. So you can't just point to specifically Jewish (and by that you actually mean specifically Orthodox and/or Soviet and so on; basically an Other, I suppose) and pin this defeat on that. Obviously when a key swing block says 'fyck you', there's trouble ahead. But it is not enough on its own, not when its perfectly possible for a Democrat to win this district while losing such voters by miles.

2. It's not an affluent suburban district either, even if does have a few affluent residential areas here and there. This is a basically working class district with some richer parts and a massive immigrant population (only a minority of its inhabitants speak English as a first language ffs). It's certainly not poverty stricken and is less working class (significantly so) than most of the districts it borders, but then it's in Brooklyn and Queens.

if not for gay marriage this would have been a much closer race and Weprin would have won by a few thousand votes (the overall climate is important in any election but the Orthodox vote would have been his biggest base if not for marriage instead of Turner's)

[BigSkyBob]

Bob Turner's going to be the GOP nominee, I guarantee it.

Okay, this race might not be competitive after all.

Not so good.

[BigSkyBob]

what do you guys think of this race? Honestly curious from an outside perspective -- there's been recent arguments behind and not-so-behind the scenes that the progressive community is failing to actually show even a remote interest here, even though the district is less Democratic than Hochul's district is Republican

As a former constituent of NY09, I think there were better/stronger voices and choices in the community including those who weren't currently elected to public office. Weprin has also said he won't run for re-election for Congress if elected. Bob Turner won't win. But for the seat was once Schumer's, Geraldine Ferraro's, and Anthony Weiner's--there could've been a better pick, for sure.

Opps, voters decided otherwise.

[NY Jew]

By the way do you have any data to show that the very elderly Jewish population in Florida is not very Orthodox and the younger Jewish population in NYC is?

Also keep in mind that Orthodox Jewish stronghold is in Brooklyn, not in Queens. Care to explain what happened with those non Orthodox Jews in east Queens?

The vote patterns pretty much show that the population there is a lot different than the one in NY-9, it's not something I just made up. These are two separate places, they are not equal. But, you can believe whatever you like.

Not everyone in the district that is conservative is Orthodox Jewish, there are other conservative Democrats all throughout it. There are also Republican pockets in Queens.

many of those pockets are Orthodox, the are also many Italian, and Irish pockets in this district (just for the record marriage redefinition is very unpopular amongst Irish and Italians just not even close to as much as it is with Orthodox Jews).  Personally I think Weprin might have lost his own ED if the district would have included his house (assuming I'm not making a mistake in the ED he lives in)

[krazen1211]

Opps, voters decided otherwise.

Certainly that does not matter. Johnnylongtorso said otherwise, and he must be right.

Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.

[BigSkyBob]

Special elections are always strange.  Turner should never win here, but this district has so many weird voters, and with lower turnout, ugh.  I still don't see how he wins, but who knows.  You have to expect that the place will, without an incumbent, at minimum, start reverting to its PVI, so single digits makes sense.

First rate call.

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[BigSkyBob]

Turner will win this race because of Weprin's same gender "marriage" vote/speech

Ballsy early call made good.

[BigSkyBob]

Turner's own internal has him stuck at 42%, which is right around where he is in most polls. I don't see how he wins this.

Another bad call.

[cinyc]

Next to nobody voted in North Las Vegas.  That is the reasonable inference from the really low turnout in Clark. It was only 18%. In Washoe it was 32%  

Lower relative turnout in Clark County makes a lot of sense.  The candidates didn't advertise in the Las Vegas TV market.  There was lower turnout in the Las Vegas TV Market's cow counties, Lincoln and Nye for the same reason.

[BigSkyBob]

Opps, voters decided otherwise.

Certainly that does not matter. Johnnylongtorso said otherwise, and he must be right.

Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.

You might find this link interests.


New 2010 poverty figure placed at 15.1%.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-poverty-census-20110914,0,7327582,full.story

2011 probably will be even worse.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anybody have the racial make up of the district, especially the Queens section?

Posted repeated in this thread.

White: 68.6%
Black: 4.7%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 17.5% (of which 50.7% are Chinese and 24.7% Indian)
---
Italian: 12.6%
Irish: 8.1%
Russian: 7.8%
German: 5.1%
Polish: 4.8%
---
Anglophone: 48.2%
---
Born Abroad: 40.2% (of which 64.6% are citizens)

ACS data.

Don't have any exact breakdowns for the specific parts of the district, but (and this is according to the 2000 census because I'm being semi-lazy) the Queens section seems to include both the whitest and least-white parts of the district. Blacks live mostly in the northern extreme of the Brooklyn section (bordering NY-10) and the east/central part of the Queens section. Asians seem to mostly live in Sheepshead Bay* in the Brooklyn section and the eastern half of the Brooklyn section. Main concentration of Hispanics seems to be in the southern bit of the Queens section.

*I think, though may be wrong. That kind of area anyway.

[Meeker]

What a thread.

[NY Jew]

anyone who truly wants to know what happened here read the front page article (and the continuation)
http://www.hamodia.com/digitaledition.cfm?docid=43796e430bdd43d285e7496f55c4cf98

[Wonkish1]

I think that says more about you than this thread.

[NY Jew]

Turner will win this race because of Weprin's same gender "marriage" vote/speech

Ballsy early call made good.

I made this call earlier

my first prediction on this forum Weprin will lose this race mostly because of his redefinition of marriage support.

[J. J.]

Anybody have the racial make up of the district, especially the Queens section?

Posted repeated in this thread.

White: 68.6%
Black: 4.7%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 17.5% (of which 50.7% are Chinese and 24.7% Indian)
---
Italian: 12.6%
Irish: 8.1%
Russian: 7.8%
German: 5.1%
Polish: 4.8%
---
Anglophone: 48.2%
---
Born Abroad: 40.2% (of which 64.6% are citizens)

ACS data.

Don't have any exact breakdowns for the specific parts of the district, but (and this is according to the 2000 census because I'm being semi-lazy) the Queens section seems to include both the whitest and least-white parts of the district. Blacks live mostly in the northern extreme of the Brooklyn section (bordering NY-10) and the east/central part of the Queens section. Asians seem to mostly live in Sheepshead Bay* in the Brooklyn section and the eastern half of the Brooklyn section. Main concentration of Hispanics seems to be in the southern bit of the Queens section.

*I think, though may be wrong. That kind of area anyway.

I was hoping for something specific to Queens.  I thought the black population was higher.  Thank you!

[Wonkish1]

NY Jew, according to the newspaper you just cited Marriage likely wasn't a huge decider in this race. Only 29% said that it was very important and that would appear to be the same % of traditionally Republican voting Orthodox Jews and devout Catholics that are in this district.

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

[NY Jew]

Opps, voters decided otherwise.

Certainly that does not matter. Johnnylongtorso said otherwise, and he must be right.

Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.

Ulrich would have never gotten such a high Orthodox support (he voted for a gay marriage (to us at least David greenfeld was the only won to vote against it) like bill in the city Council)

whether he would have done good enough in key areas to win is impossible to gage would he have done better then Turner in Catholic neighborhoods? would he have gotten enough Orthodox support to win? would Ruben Diaz still support him? would NOM have gotten involved in this race if he was the candidate? (NOM got involved because many Orthodox Jews asked them to come in to help), could he have successfully made Isreal an issue?

Until I saw Turner got the nod I was afraid the Republicans would follow their normal routine of putting up a candidate that couldn't win (some of those candidates that were suggested couldn't win an election for town idiot) (ignoring all but their base (and this means registration and leadership wise))

[Landslide Lyndon]

What a thread.

Yeah, it looks like a Johns Hopkins Psychiatric Unit reunion.

[NY Jew]

NY Jew, according to the newspaper you just cited Marriage likely wasn't a huge decider in this race. Only 29% said that it was very important and that would appear to be the same % of traditionally Republican voting Orthodox Jews and devout Catholics that are in this district.

Orthodox Jews are only Republican based on a few issues (though the democrats keep expanding this number) and most Orthodox Jews never would have abandoned Weprin if not for this vote (watch when the special election ED by ED numbers come out for the 27 AD and compare Weprin and Simanowitz's numbers and you'll see that many voted for the democrat in 1 race and the Republican in the other)
here's the results for the whole district (many of the traditional republican areas aren't in the 9th CD)
Simanowitz (D) 6,448 76%-DeSena (R) 2,032 24% (this district includes McCains best areas in Queens proper (and I'm sure that you were seeing numbers here like 80% for Simanowitz and 80% for Turner) (not including the Rockways))


in regards to the Catholics many Hispanics here and therefore would be changed votes.

don't confuse very important with 1 issue voters.

[NY Jew]

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

depends what follows or precedes it (in other words it's neutral)

[Meeker]

Can anybody shed any light on when the remaining 10% of precincts might report?

[BigSkyBob]

Can anybody shed any light on when the remaining 10% of precincts might report?

Never? Somebody noted that there were a large number of empty precincts in the district.