NY-09, Special Election Thread

[NY Jew]

PS Iv'e also heard from very reliable sources (notice this is plural) and it was quisy reported on in the daily news.
That Koch and turner made a secret deal in addition to the M,M and SS that Turner would not use marriage redefinition in this election (unlike what he did last time in the Orthodox communities (though many people last time didn't know who he was because he was running against Weiner)).  If Koch made that deal because he was afraid that this would become a referendum on gay marriage and as we know this district is against it (which would serve him right because now he's a pariah in gay circles more then ever before)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

R+1!

Lol. I was the first to call it.

[Torie]

Yes, NY Jew, there does appear to have been an especially strong swing in Rego Park to Turner (I noticed that before and should have mentioned it, but was pressed for time when I posted, and forgot), along with the Catholic areas in the NW corner (Middletown), where you see a lot more red than in 2008. I wonder why Rego Park voted for Obama but not Welprin, when the rest of the Orthodox areas also voted for McCain. I suspect in white areas there was a swing everywhere (including upper middle class fairly Jewish more secular Forest Hills), it was just a matter of degree.  I don't know about the Hispanic precincts, as to whether they swung, or just didn't vote much. They still went for Welprin.

The white Catholic areas of Brooklyn of course swung massively to Turner. They went for McCain, but this time by much larger margins.

[NY Jew]

in the rest of far Rockway outside of the 9th CD which overlaps with the 23 Assembly district (many of it Orthodox) went  3178 to 491 in favor of Philip Goldfeder the democrat (and there was a last minute marriage issue regarding Goldfeder )

If anyone thinks that Orthodox Jews will not vote for a democrat the same area went 5616-3541 for Obama

the 2 most Orthodox EDs combined in this area went 1039-96 McCain

I think this proves that Orthodox Jews this year would still vote democrat

[NY Jew]

Yes, NY Jew, there does appear to have been an especially strong swing in Rego Park to Turner (I noticed that before and should have mentioned it, but was pressed for time when I posted, and forgot), along with the Catholic areas in the NW corner (Middletown), where you see a lot more red than in 2008. I wonder why Rego Park voted for Obama but not Welprin, when the rest of the Orthodox areas also voted for McCain. I suspect in white areas there was a swing everywhere (including upper middle class fairly Jewish more secular Forest Hills), it was just a matter of degree.  I don't know about the Hispanic precincts, as to whether they swung, or just didn't vote much. They still went for Welprin.

The white Catholic areas of Brooklyn of course swung massively to Turner. They went for McCain, but this time by much larger margins.

Bucharians didn't vote in that election (relativity new to the country and has no political experience ) this election for some reason there got involved in the race (I wonder if it has to due with that thing that I keep getting made fun of over) massive registering campaign there from what I heard.

[NY Jew]

here's the amount Turner (not Turner's overall vote) won over Weprin in the combined majority Orthodox EDs by Assembly seat (based on these results I don't see how Weprin wouldn't have won if there was no gay issues (I gave up after these ADs because it's clear to me that this was enough even with mild Turnout in other Jewish areas))
44 607 votes
45 1277 votes
48 604 votes

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

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Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

[NY Jew]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

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Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

[krazen1211]

http://m.nypost.com/p/news/local/brooklyn/weiner_gets_brush_off_a1vNTFMYqECUbAxvnhz48M

“Weiner left his toothbrush behind! It literally says ‘Anthony’ on it,” an insider said.

Turner’s wife, Peggy, a registered nurse, personally requested that congressional cleaners be brought in to scrub the bathroom, the insider said.

There also was talk of replacing the carpeting and Weiner’s office chair, the insider said.

“I do have a Twitter account. But I will use it fully clothed,” Turner quipped.




Lol.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

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Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

...which...which aspect of what Coolidge did to the Republican Party? Do you mean leading it to one EC landslide and setting up another? Indirectly leading to a crushing defeat later on with my economic policies? Making it more conservative somehow? And what does any of this have to do with the shape or demographics of NY-09?

While I can parse most of what you're saying, your random use of Hebrew nouns (other than teshuva, which should be obvious to anyone) also isn't helping your case, as it makes you seem insular.

[Torie]

I need a Yiddish dictionary! 

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Woah, we're still talking about this?

[Torie]

Woah, we're still talking about this?

We just can't seem to nail down precisely exactly where the lines on the Venn Diagram go delimiting the nexus between certain Jews and gay nuptials. It will probably take another several pages to get that most important job done. Deal with it! 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

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Lord knows I got those.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

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Lord knows I got those.

I got 99 problems but gay marriage ain't one.

[krazen1211]

here's the amount Turner (not Turner's overall vote) won over Weprin in the combined majority Orthodox EDs by Assembly seat (based on these results I don't see how Weprin wouldn't have won if there was no gay issues (I gave up after these ADs because it's clear to me that this was enough even with mild Turnout in other Jewish areas))
44 607 votes
45 1277 votes
48 604 votes

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

Isn't it amazing how when some don't have facts and data on their side, they just spout insults?

[Sbane]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

[Lunar]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again?

Maybe 12-20% of likely special election voters, but they tend to be far more swingy than other voters and a lot more reliable for turnout, so it depends on other groups'  turnout too for how to calculate it.

Although on the federal level, they're not swingy at all  lately! If you were to hypothetically subtract out Orthodox voters who voted against pre-scandal Weiner in 2010 (Weiner was a 7-term incumbent or something with all the money in the world), their likely voter population might be cut in at least a half, if not two thirds.  Makes you wonder if Weprin was right to spend all that time focusing on the Orthodox community (going onto the radio with Dov Hikind, other Orthodox radio shows, etc., but never once playing up his half-Latino roots, even though Latinos are 14% of the district).

[patrick1]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

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Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

While I can parse most of what you're saying, your random use of Hebrew nouns (other than teshuva, which should be obvious to anyone) also isn't helping your case, as it makes you seem insular.

Orthodox Jews insular? Surely you jest.

All of the Orthodox I talk to loath Obama. The gay marriage thing didn't help matters, but that is not what lost this. Barry has big problems because many key (swing) interest groups are jumping ship. Every race has its own local issues but this was for many people a referendum on the President. 

[NY Jew]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

...which...which aspect of what Coolidge did to the Republican Party? Do you mean leading it to one EC landslide and setting up another? Indirectly leading to a crushing defeat later on with my economic policies? Making it more conservative somehow? And what does any of this have to do with the shape or demographics of NY-09?

While I can parse most of what you're saying, your random use of Hebrew nouns (other than teshuva, which should be obvious to anyone) also isn't helping your case, as it makes you seem insular.

1. Coolidge lost the Jewish vote for the Republicans (and also lost many Catholics) (look it up if you don't know why)
2. the message was specifically for you and not meant that everyone should understand it. (and you supposedly know Hebrew, which I know see isn't true so don't lecture me on the bible again)

[NY Jew]

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2011/09/16/2011-09-16_the_real_reason_jews_deserted_david_weprin_in_ny9_its_not_because_theyre_mad_at_.html#ixzz1YGSHQIhO


"In the 27th AD, Simanowitz won the 44th ED - in Kew Gardens Hills - by roughly a 4 to 1 margin.  Weprin lost it by a similar ratio. "
I wonder what made people change their minds (keep in mind their was a slight fear that Simanowitz might vote the wrong way on marriage when it comes up for a repeal)

everyone I spoke to (I'm 100% sure that I spoke to more Orthodox Jews who voted in this race than anyone of you did and they'll be more honest with me) in this race voted solely due to marriage ext.

[NY Jew]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again?

Maybe 12-20% of likely special election voters, but they tend to be far more swingy than other voters and a lot more reliable for turnout, so it depends on other groups'  turnout too for how to calculate it.

Although on the federal level, they're not swingy at all  lately! If you were to hypothetically subtract out Orthodox voters who voted against pre-scandal Weiner in 2010 (Weiner was a 7-term incumbent or something with all the money in the world), their likely voter population might be cut in at least a half, if not two thirds.  Makes you wonder if Weprin was right to spend all that time focusing on the Orthodox community (going onto the radio with Dov Hikind, other Orthodox radio shows, etc., but never once playing up his half-Latino roots, even though Latinos are 14% of the district).

many Jews voted against Weiner last time because of marriage and the like (Turner last time ran on a social Conservative platform which many Jews still remember from last time) (If Turner would have run a better campaign last time he would have beat Weiner too)

[Brittain33]

Let's not pretend that Orthodox Jews "believing Obama is anti-Semitic" isn't just a projection and proactive defense of their own issues with Obama's ethnic and racial background.

[Verily]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More to the point (maybe?) it is a distraction from the patterns that are genuinely troubling .